固体介质中弹性波传播机制的细胞自动机有限深势阱模型

分析了采用细胞自动机研究波动问题的建模方法，针对一维、均匀、各向同性固体介质中弹性纵波的微观机制，借用一经典弹簧振子模型、细胞自动机格子气模型，以及量子力学中的无限深势阱模型，建立了一个细胞自动机有限深势阱模型，从量子力学角度出发，基于介观物理和纳米概念，以微观精子的德布罗意假设为基础，利用薛定谔方程，讨论了该模型中粒子（分子组）的振动速度与粒子物质波波速之间的联系，给出了模型中的波动方程，得出ζ＝Vp（ζ为粒子振动速度，Vp为物质波纵波波速）。同时还讨论了模型中粒子的大小和能量传递问题，引入引力场，得出了能量及引力势的量子化条件，另外，对声波速度、格子气粒子振动速度和本文模型中分子组振动速度进行了比较；还对本文模型中的粒子能量分布作了分析。     

Evaluating Earthquake-Triggered Landslide Hazard at the Basin Scale Through Gis in the Upper Sele River Valley

To evaluate techniques for assessing earthquake-triggeredlandslide hazard in the Southern Apennines (Italy), a GIS-based analysis was used to modelseismically induced slope deformations. Geological, geotechnical, geomorphological and seismologicaldata were integrated into a standard earthquake slope stability model. The model assessed thelandslide potential that existed during the 1980 Irpinian earthquake in the Upper Sele river Valley.The standard Newmark displacement analysis, widely used for predicting the location of shallowunstable slopes, does not take into account errors and/or uncertainties in the input parameters.Therefore, a probabilistic Newmark displacement analysis technique has been used. Probabilistictechniques allow, e.g., an estimation of the probability that a slope will exceed a certain criticalvalue of Newmark displacement. In our probabilistic method, a Monte-Carlo based simulation modelis used in conjunction with a GIS. The random variability of geotechnical data is modelled by probabilitydensity functions (pdfs), while for the seismic input three different regression laws wereconsidered. Input probability distributions are sampled and the resulting values input into empiricalrelations for estimating Newmark displacement. The outcome is a map in which to each siteis related a spatial probability distribution for the expected displacement in response to seismic loading.Results of the experiments show a high grade of uncertainty in the application of the Newmarkanalysis both for the deterministic and probabilistic approach in a complex geological setting suchas the high Sele valley, quite common in the Southern Apennines. They show a strong dependence onthe reliability of the spatial data used in input, so that, when the model is used at basin scale,results are strongly influenced by local environmental condition (e.g., topography, lithology, groundwatercondition) and decrease the model performance.     

山东海阳断裂东石兰沟段晚更新世以来地表断错特征与最大潜在地震估计

海阳断裂是胶东半岛NE向牟平 -即墨断裂带东部一条规模较大的断裂 ,尽管晚更新世以来该断裂的地表断错活动总体上已基本停息 ,但东石兰沟段在晚更新世晚期以来仍有断错地表的活动。最后一次断错地表的活动发生在距今 3 7～ 1 2万年 ,但接近 1 2万年。地表破裂长度约6 5km ,活动段长度 8km。地表断错以走滑活动为主 ,可见最大倾滑位移 0 2m ;根据断层擦痕侧伏角推测最大水平位移 1 13m。最后一次断错地表的活动若以距今 1 2万年计算 ,则最大平均倾滑速率为 0 0 17mm/a ;最大平均右旋走滑速率为 0 0 94mm/a。野外观测到该活动段的断错活动表现为突发断错 ,根据地震地表破裂参数、活动段长度与地震的关系 ,估计其最大潜在地震为 6 级     

Evaluation of the seismic hazard of Lebanon

This paper presents the results of a study undertaken todetermine the seismic hazard of Lebanon. The seismic hazard evaluation wasconducted using probabilistic methods of hazard analysis. Potential sourcesof seismic activities that affect Lebanon were identified and the earthquakerecurrence relationships of these sources were developed from instrumentalseismology data, historical records, and earlier studies undertaken toevaluate the seismic hazard of neighboring countries. The sensitivityof the results to different assumptions regarding the seismic sources in theLebanese segment and choice of the attenuation relationship wasevaluated. Maps of peak ground acceleration contours, based on 10percent of probability of exceedance in 50 years and 100 years time spans,were developed.     

贡嘎山东坡亚高山森林区蒸散力的估算

以海螺沟 30 0 0m气象站的观测资料为基础 ,运用Penman公式法　空气饱和差法和桑斯维特公式法 ,计算了贡嘎山东坡亚高山林林的年平均蒸散力 ,其结果为分别为 431 81mm、171 4mm和 44 6 4mm。通过分析蒸散力的影响因素 ,对这三种计算蒸散力的方法作了比较 ,对计算结果存在的差异作了比较合理的解释 ,认为用Penman公式法可以估计出本研究区的蒸散力。同时 ,对蒸散力及其影响因自进行了相关分析 ,指出湿度和风不是速制约研究区蒸散力的主导因子 ,并分析了蒸散力与水面蒸发的关系 ,由此推导出估算蒸散力的简便方程 :PE =6 6 77 0 6 91E60 1 0 75 1ITm 0 0 396Pm。     

A general model for estimating actual evaporation from non-saturated surfaces

Based on energy balance equation and mass transfer equation, a general model to estimate actual evaporation from non-saturated surfaces was derived. Making use of two concepts, “relative evaporation” and “relative drying power”, a relationship was established to account for the departure from saturated conditions. Using this model, the actual evaporation (evapotranspiration) can be calculated without the need of potential evaporation estimation. Furthermore, the model requires only a few meteorological parameters that are readily and routinely obtainable at standard weather stations. Based on nearly 30 years data of 432 meteorological stations and 512 hydrological stations in China, in combined with GIS, nine typical river basins were selected. Using the data of the selected river basins, the model was tested. The results show that the actual evaporation rate can be estimated with an error of less than 10% in most areas of China, except few years in the Yellow River Basin.     

A study on the early-warning technique concerning debris flow disasters

According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified. The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN)real time forecasting model are given detailed explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters, which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day, the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware are applied, which makes the system′s performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention.     

云南省防洪空间信息系统构建

通过讨论应用地理信息系统（GIS）技术，立足现实对相关空间数据进行集成和整合处理，实现防洪空间信息的数字化、标准化，为优化防汛指挥工作手段提供基础。系统数据库饭知不同比例尺精度的空间基础数据以满足不同目的的需求，对相关水文、防洪设施、全省洪涝风险和重点区风险图、土地利用等图件进行系统整合。系统有较强的管理功能和分析功能，可提高云南省防洪空间信息的共享度和系统有效管理，为政府统一组织和指挥抗洪救灾提供重要的辅助决策支持手段。     

Present land use and cover patterns and their development potential in North Ningxia

With the objectives to acquire the fundamental data of the territorial resource, understand the impacts of human activities on the land use and cover patterns and evaluate the potential of the future exploitation, an intensive land cover classification with an accuracy of 93% has been completed for North Ningxia by remote sensing technique based on the adoption of a combination method composed of texture training, maximum likelihood classification and post-processing such as re-allocation and aggregation. This classification result was incorporated with the contemporaneous socio-economic and meteorological data for cross-sectional regression modelling to reveal the spatial determinants of the land cover patterns and understand the human-environmental relationships. A tentative evaluation on the potential of soil exploitation in the near future was carried out in combination with our land use and cover change detection results aiming at supplying some useful references for the central and local governments in their sustainable land use planning.     

图像处理技术在地质灾害监测中的应用

三维激光微位移监测技术是一种对地质灾害进行长期监测的新方法。该技术用激光作为光源，用CCD摄像器作为镜头，通过图象采集卡把视频信号采入计算机中，用与该仪器配套的专门软件对采集到的光斑图像进行处理，计算出光斑的三维中心坐标值，把该值和原点坐标值进行比较，就可以算出灾害体滑动的距离。该系统可以对灾害体进行长期、非接触监测，监测时间、监测频率可以任意设定。文章概括介绍该监测的原理，各个组成部分，重点介绍软件部分，即采集的视频信号进入计算机后的图像处理过程和数据库结构。该监测系统已在三块地区试运行了3个月，效果较好。