近代云南城市空间演化的外生动力分析

对19世纪70年代至1949年云南的城镇空间演化进行了纵向梳理和横向比较,研究了交通与政治两种演化影响因素的变迁,结果显示:(1)在1910年滇越铁路通车之前的清末,对外交通线路的兴衰对沿线城市空间演化有明显的影响,交通区位因素是云南城市空间演化的主要外生动力。(2)进入民国之后,地方政府对城市的建设管理和资源投入能力都强于清代,中心城市获得的资源尤其明显,因此政治因素开始成为中心城市空间演化的主要推动因素。(3)在空间分布上,铁路交通对城市演化推动的极化程度明显高于传统交通方式,因此,在交通因素与政治因素的协同作用下,在民国时期昆明城市演化的外生动力明显强于省内其他城市。     

How mega-events capture their hosts: event seizure and the World Cup 2018 in Russia

This paper develops the notion of “event seizure” to better understand how mega-events, and the elites associated with them, take possession of host cities and societies—of development plans, funds and legislation—and impose their priorities on cities and citizens. It illustrates how event seizure plays out in the preparations for the Football World Cup 2018 in Russia, which is on course to become the most expensive World Cup ever with a total cost of about USD 20 billion. Drawing on government and FIFA documents, public statements from authorities and officials, and media coverage, the paper examines three different dimensions of event seizure. First, infrastructural seizure, where event-related infrastructure, particularly sports venues, crowd out infrastructure that serves wider urban needs. Second, financial seizure, where a close circle of political and business elites benefits from state funding, while the public underwrites cost overruns. Third and last, legal seizure, where the event introduces exceptional legislation, infringing citizen rights and compromising due oversight of event preparations.     

Job losses and political acceptability of climate policies: why the ‘job-killing’ argument is so persistent and how to overturn it

Political acceptability is an essential issue in choosing appropriate climate policies. Sociologists and behavioural scientists recognize the importance of selecting environmental policies that have broad political support, while economists tend to compare different instruments first on the basis of their efficiency, and then by assessing their distributional impacts and thus their political acceptability. This paper examines case-study and empirical evidence that the job losses ascribed (correctly or incorrectly) to climate policies have substantial impacts on the willingness of affected workers to support these policies. In aggregate, the costs of these losses are significantly smaller than the benefits, both in terms of health and, probably, of labour market outcomes, but the losses are concentrated in specific areas, sectors and social groups that have been hit hard by the great recession and international competition. Localized contextual effects, such as peer group pressure, and politico-economic factors, such as weakened unions and tightened government budgets, amplify the strength and the persistence of the ‘job-killing’ argument. Compensating for the effects of climate policies on ‘left-behind’ workers appears to be the key priority to increase the political acceptability of such policies, but the design of compensatory policies poses serious challenges.

Key policy insights

• Public perception of, and support for, climate policies is substantially reduced in the presence of large negative shocks, especially job losses.

• Climate policies can be perceived as negative for employment, especially in areas where polluting industries represent a large share of employment and in occupations and sectors already damaged by globalization and automation.

• Policymakers should distinguish between small and large distributional effects of climate policies, and find the appropriate combination of revenue recycling schemes, industrial and retraining policies as well as compensation packages to increase the support for such policies.

     

Geographical Publications

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the geography of poverty in the state of Illinois and to use these empirical results as a basis for classroom discussions and exercises intended to involve students in the current debate on poverty. Although poverty is generally associated with inner city locations, our results indicate that poverty levels are higher in rural areas, particularly those that are not adjacent to metropolitan locations. The prevalence of low-wage employment and the growing number of single-parent families in rural areas are closely linked to increased poverty. Student surveys and the presentation of data were successful in generating discussion among undergraduate students at Western Illinois University. Student comments revealed a high degree of concern about poverty and sensitivity to the circumstances of the poor.     

Economic diversification and second‐tier political conflict: Assessing bitumen political ecologies in southwest Nigeria

Since its emergence as a research field in the 1980s, political ecology has provided a useful tool to explicate violent environments, notably as hallmarks of natural resource‐dependent economies. Practitioners regularly address what might be called ‘charismatic’ natural resources such as oil and other precious minerals to describe contestation over access and control of natural resources. Yet, where this focus exists, the political ecology of less economically valuable or ‘noncharismatic’ resources is thereby obscured. Thus, Nigeria's dependency on oil production has generated much scholarly attention with its unstable political economy described as a rentier state. In contrast, this paper draws on extensive field experience and knowledge about the country to assess in a preliminary manner some of the dimensions and ramifications of a less well known second‐tier natural resource commodity that is gaining attention as part of a possible national economic diversification strategy. Using the case of bitumen, a viscous hydrocarbon mainly used in road surfacing and roofing work, I assess the trajectory of this relatively overlooked resource, thereby opening a window onto the political ecology of a noncharismatic resource. In contrast to the ubiquitous violence in the oil‐based Niger Delta, I suggest that bitumen political ecologies, while also provoking political conflict and debate, nonetheless seem to being marked by new power dynamics that might augur a less violence prone path in terms of Nigeria's political economy of natural resource production.     

THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST AND REFORM IN THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION'S IDEOLOGICAL IMAGINATION

ABSTRACT. In pursuit of its foreign‐policy goals, the administration of President George W. Bush has attempted a dramatic reshaping of the vision of the Middle East in the American mind. References to the “new” or “greater” Middle East now include countries far outside traditional concepts of the region, including those in West Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central Asia. The administration argues that this region is defined not by cultural (Arab) or religious (Islam) characteristics but by a lack of democracy; hence a grand strategy is needed to execute reform. This article examines current U.S. efforts to achieve reform in the region, the components of the ideological construction of the New Middle East, the perceived role of Iraq, Turkey's potential role as a “model” for the region, and responses from the region to current U.S.‐led reform efforts.     

Leimavo Revisited: Agrarian Land-Use Change in the Highlands of Madagascar

Describing and explaining land-use change is of critical concern in Madagascar, where land transformations such as deforestation and resulting environmental degradation currently capture widespread attention. While the eastern rain forest recedes in the face of swidden cultivators, the highlands demonstrate more constructive transformations. In this paper I present a case study of land-use change in Leimavo, a small village near Ambositra studied in the 1960s by Jean-Pierre Raison. Here, the twentieth century has seen a gradual reduction in irrigated rice cultivation and cattle husbandry, and a boom in market-oriented orange, vegetable, and grain production. In the long term, a historical landscape of grassy hills has been transformed into a productive cultural landscape with woodlots, anti-erosion benching, rice terraces, fruit groves, and diverse crops. Critical factors determining the trajectory of land-use change include regional population pressure, state policies, market incentives, climate variations, and access to land and water resources. These critical factors, or explanations, are linked in the discussion by the use of a simple heuristic device—the range of choice—as a theoretical framework.     

National sovereignty & transboundary protected areas in Southern Africa

The notion that Transboundary Protected Areas (TBPAs) will act as `Peace Parks' has become an important argument in their promotion in post-Apartheid Southern Africa. This `Peace Parks Concept' is implicitly based upon the assumption that national sovereignty will not become a constraining factor in the creation and management of TBPAs. However, this assumption is problematic. TBPAs introduce various changes in the landscape with consequences for the ways in which a state can exercise its sovereignty over its borderland and citizens. This situation might evoke state action that could endanger the various environmental, socio-economic and political objectives of TBPAs. A state's behaviour with regard to TBPAs is not just informed by its interests in TBPAs, but also by its strategic and other interests in the wider borderland area. These are not necessarily compatible with the environmental and economic objectives of TBPAs. The ways in which these interests are mediated are highly complex and non-linear. Because of the inter-dependency that TBPAs create, the extent to which a state can pursue certain interests by means of TBPAs will be (partially) constrained by the wishes of the other states involved. In addition, power has to be shared with a wide range of non-state actors. The operation of sovereignty in TBPAs is therefore highly unpredictable and cannot be captured in static zero-sum terms. Actor Network Theory is identified as a possible starting-point to unravel and evaluate these complex political processes in TBPAs and their subsequent outcomes for state sovereignty.     

基于VRIO修正模型的长三角文化产业竞争力评价

文化产业已经成为我国促进经济结构转型、扩大内需的重要着力点。结合VRIO模型,从价值、稀缺性、不可模仿性与组织4个层面构建文化产业竞争力评价指标体系,体现文化产业的载体依附性、创意性和消费高门槛性。利用物元分析法对2012—2018年长三角地区11个城市文化产业竞争力进行研究。结果表明:(1)长三角地区文化产业竞争力提升明显,但区域内部发展不平衡,城市间层级特征明显;(2)江苏与浙江的文化产业竞争力受不同发展模式影响,分别侧重于政府扶持下的规模化生产与市场推动下的新型物质载体升级。结合区域文化产业竞争力评价结果提出针对性的建议。