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11.
Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions. 相似文献
12.
David P. Bacon Nash’at N. Ahmad Thomas J. Dunn Michael C. Monteith Ananthakrishna Sarma 《Natural Hazards》2008,44(3):317-327
By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging
of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the
roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3)
have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either
the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of
hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect
and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational
picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric
simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies
with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the
geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system
and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number
of different situations. 相似文献
13.
14.
基于AGA的SVM需水预测模型研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
需水预测是一个由城市人口、工业水平、社会经济水平共同作用的多因素、多层次的复杂非线性系统.其结果将直接影响受区域水资源承载力约束的产业结构、布局形态等决策.作为一种集中参数预报方法,支持向量机方法具有对未来样本的较好的泛化性能,对于这类资料缺乏、系统结构尚欠清晰的问题可以取得较好的模拟和预测结果.基于此,本文将支持向量机方法引入需水预测领域,建立了需水预测支持向量机模型.同时,本文将加速遗传算法和支持向量机方法耦合起来,构造了支持向量机模型参数的自适应优化算法.模型在珠海市的应用实例表明:与简单遗传算法比较,AGA的模型参数寻优效率更高;与BP神经网络模型相比,SVM模型较好地解决了小样本、经验性等问题,并取得了较高的预测精度. 相似文献
15.
本文探讨东海区近海强风预报模式,首先介绍建立预报模式的思路和步骤,及使用说明,为了验证强风预报模式和判别条件,用1986、1987上日本传真天气图进行试报,准确和基本准确度为91.1%,并给出了1989、1995年随船试验预报结果,准确和基本准确率为90%以上。 相似文献
16.
本文分析了当地前期气象要素——温度的演变特点与汛期降水量之间的关系,建立了两者之间的回归方程,并由此作出降水量的长期预报,从预报误差和试报结果看,效果是好的。 相似文献
17.
本文以我国北黄海的烟威渔场为研究对象,采用优选因子场预报模式,对盐度的时空变化进行预报试验。文中对所采用的统计预报方法,作了简要介绍。对影响本海区盐度变化的显著因子及预报结果作了初步分析。预报试验表明:预报的总体平均绝对误差为0.27‰,预报相对误差在18%左右,预报误差小于0.5‰的站数占总站数的85%,预报趋势与实测资料基本一致。 相似文献
18.
Liu Jiaju Zhang Jingchao Prof. Senior Engineer River Harbour Department Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute Nanjing Senior Engineer River Harbour Department Nanjing Hydralulic Research Institute Nanjing 《中国海洋工程》1992,(2)
- This paper, after briefly reviewing the experimental research on sediment transport on muddy beach since the 1950s, improves and perfects the method for forecasting siltation in navigation channels and harbour basins which was first put forward in China by the authors. In consideration of silty sediment and sand, some factors in forecasting methods have been changed and modified. Consequently, the modified methods can be used either to compute siltation in navigation channels and harbour basins on muddy beach or to compute siltation and scouring in navigation channels and harbour basins on both silty beach and sandy beach. The verification of field data from eleven large, medium and small natural harbours shows a good agreement between the forecasting by the modified method and the natural conditions. Finally, the paper deals with the rational utilization of water area after the construction of the West Dyke in Lianyungang, the maintenance of water depth of the navigation channel at the entrance, siltation distribution, siltation in the navigation channel and harbour basin for ships of 100 thousand tonnnage. Results once again prove that the prospect of constructing Lianyungang Harbour into a deepwater harbour is bright. 相似文献
19.
张若君 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2002,32(5):848-852
本文考虑四阶奇异边值问题x( 4 ) =λa(t) f (t,x(t) ) ,0 相似文献
20.
The effects of different lateral confinement stress on the fatigue behavior of and cumulative damage to plain concrete are investigated experimentally. Eighty 100 mm x 100 mm x 100 mm specimens of ordinary strength concrete are tested under constant- or variable-amplitude fatigue loading and lateral confinement pressure in two orthogonal directions. A fatigue equation is developed by modifying the classical Aas-Jakobsen S-N equation for taking into account the effect of the confined stress on fatigue strength of plain concrete. The results of variable-amplitude fatigue tests indicate that the linear damage theory proposed by Palmgren and Miner is unreasonable in the biaxial stress state. A nonlinear cumulative damage model that could model the effects of the magnitude and sequence of variable-amplitude fatigue loading and lateral confinement pressure is proposed on the basis of the evolution laws of the residual strains in the longitudinal direction during fatigue tests. The residual fatigue life predic 相似文献