The death spiral of coal in the U.S.: will changes in U.S. Policy turn the tide?

ABSTRACT

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to stop the ongoing spiralling down of the U.S. coal industry. We discuss the origins of the decline and assess the effects of policy interventions by the Trump administration. We find that, with fierce competition from natural gas and renewables, a further decrease of coal consumption must be expected by the old and inefficient U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet. By contrast, we consider the overly optimistic (for coal producers) view of the U.S. Energy Information Agency, and test whether the tide for the U.S. coal industry could turn as a result of three potential support measures: (i) revoking the Clean Power Plan (CPP); (ii) facilitating access to the booming Asian market; and (iii) enhanced support for Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage (CCTS) technology. We investigate the short-term and long-term effects on U.S. coal production using a comprehensive partial equilibrium model of the world steam coal market, COALMOD-World (Holz, Haftendorn, Mendelevitch, & von Hirschhausen, 2016). We find that revoking the CPP could stop the downward trend of steam coal consumption in the U.S., but even allowing for additional exports, will not lead to a return of U.S. coal production to the levels of the 2000s, that is, over 900?Mt per year. When global steam coal use is aligned with the 2°C climate target, U.S. steam coal production drops to around 100?Mt per year by 2030 and below 50?Mt by 2050, even if CCTS is available and exports via the U.S. West Coast is possible.

Key policy insights

• Declining U.S. coal use is primarily caused by competition from natural gas and renewables not by environmental regulation of the coal sector.

• Without substantial policy support, U.S. coal-fired generation capacity will continue to decline rapidly.

• Revoking the Clean Power Plan will lead to about one eighth higher U.S. coal production in the next years.

• Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage does not prevent the rapid decline of coal use required under stringent climate policy.

• Even in the most extreme pro-coal scenarios with additional export possibilities, U.S. coal production will not return to its pre-2010 levels.

     

基于“两规合一”的基本农田规划研究——以上海市嘉定区为例

＂两规合一＂要求在严格落实国家对基本农田保护和管控的前提下,在区级土地利用总体规划中,充分发挥基本农田的生产生态功能,优先保护具有较高粮食生产能力的耕地,并强化区域生态结构控制,因地制宜地分解落实规划指标;在镇级土地利用总体规划层面,应当充分发挥基本农田的阻隔功能,利用基本农田刚性的控制手段,阻挡建设用地无序蔓延,有效保护现状耕地,从而形成最佳的粮食生产区域和最优的生态空间。本文以上海市嘉定区为例,全面阐述了在＂两规合一＂要求下,本轮土地利用总体规划中基本农田保护区、保护指标和保护图斑的规划方案,实现了区、镇两级基本农田在功能、布局和数量的协调和统一,为大都市基本农田规划的理论和实证研究提供借鉴。     

山西“十五”测震台网子台环境地噪声分析

通过对山西“十五”测震台网正式运行的32个子台的环境地噪声分析计算,得到各子台的背景噪声地脉动速度均方根（RMS值）、观测动态范围、噪声信号功率谱。结果表明,各子台环境地噪声水平基本符合数字地震观测技术规范要求,根据2008-2011年的变化动态,各子台环境地噪声水平有增大趋势。     

黄土连拱隧道动态施工围岩损伤局部化研究

为了研究黄土连拱隧道动态施工时围岩的损伤情况和损伤分布规律,在室内试验的基础上推导了Q2黄土的弹塑性损伤本构模型,并基于FLAC3D平台编制了自定义本构模型,提出了损伤度概念并编制了损伤度后处理模块。以国内首条高速公路黄土连拱隧道-离石隧道为依托工程,对两种开挖方案施工时围岩损伤情况进行数值分析。研究表明,该成果可以较好地掌握隧道每一开挖步后围岩损伤度的分布情况和损伤区的演化规律,为施工方案优化选择提供依据。该研究成果为地下工程支护参数优化和方案的选择开辟了一个新的方向。     

Groundwater Use in the Selenge River Basin,Mongolia

The Selenge River Basin occupies a total area of 447,000 km2, of which 343,000 km2 is located within Mongolia (the remainder is in Russia). The basin is characterized by an extreme continental climate, consisting of harsh, cold, dry winters and short, hot summers. Annual average temperatures are approximately -4°C and annual rainfall ranges from 220 mm to 450 mm.The Selenge River Basin is a critical groundwater resource for Mongolia. Greater than 55% (~1.5 million) of Mongolia’s population resides within the basin and, during 2003, an estimated average of 700,000 m3/day of water was abstracted from the basin’s groundwater system. The basin services Mongolia’s largest cities and industries (including the rapidly expanding mining sector) as well as important traditional pastoral ranges.     

《京杭运河遗产保护规划图》图例设计

在运河"申遗"工作的推动下,以京杭运河为代表的大量古代水利工程相继成为各级文物保护单位,水利、文物等部门相继开展了古代水利工程保护与管理规划的编制工作。由于古代水利工程保护的特殊性,在保护规划图编绘的过程中发现已有的规划图编绘技术标准不能满足实际工作的需求,突出地表现在现有规划要素图例不能完整地表达保护规划内容。本文根据古代水利工程保护特殊要求,结合当前已有的规划图编绘技术标准和成果,提出了京杭运河保护与管理规划图图例系统和具体设计方案。     

亚洲大地构造基本特征和演化规律

根据中国学者的开合构造观点,分析了亚洲大地构造基本特征和演化规律,提出“构造集群”、“构造运动程式”等一些新的认识。（1）亚洲划分为11个大地构造旋回并归纳为大陆基底形成、泛大陆和超大陆形成与发展以及现代板块构造与陆内演化三大阶段。（2）以23条俯冲带或碰撞带为骨干,划分了以西伯利亚陆块、古中华陆块、印度陆块和太平洋板块为核心的北亚、中亚、南亚和东亚4个构造集群,以及11个二级和86个三级构造单元。构造集群系指具有成生联系的陆块、大小不同的地块和各个时期造山带的聚合体;两个构造集群间存在一个构造结合区。（3）亚洲构造变形特点为：中亚构造集群基本呈东西向展布,分别受围绕西伯利亚陆块分布的向南突出的弧形构造和围绕印度陆块分布的主体向北北东突出的弧形构造（仅内弧出现了向南突出的喜马拉雅弧）的挤压,它们同时又被北北东向展布的东亚构造集群强烈改造,从而形成了复杂的构造格局,表明古中华陆块在亚洲大地构造演化中起着“中流砥柱”的重要作用。（4）亚洲大地构造时空演化与全球同步经历了哥伦比亚古陆、罗迪尼亚古陆和潘基亚古陆形成的3次重要造陆事件。在此过程中,中亚构造集群独具特色：哥伦比亚古陆1 850 Ma形成,稍早于南亚构造集群（1 800 Ma）和北亚构造集群（1 800~1 600 Ma）;罗迪尼亚古陆830 Ma形成,晚于南北两侧的900~1 000 Ma;潘基亚古陆210 Ma形成,也比全球普遍于250 Ma形成的时间晚。印支运动的广泛发育和强烈影响是中亚构造集群乃至亚洲最显著的特征。（5）总结出背向俯冲对接式、单向运移拼贴式和原地开合手风琴式3种构造运动程式。背向俯冲对接式的动因是地幔对流（软流圈对流或地幔柱对流）;单向运移拼贴式可能与地幔上升产生的地幔层流有关;原地开合手风琴式推测是深部地幔“热点”周期活动所致。     

Modal pushover‐based scaling of earthquake records for nonlinear analysis of single‐story unsymmetric‐plan buildings

The modal pushover‐based scaling (MPS) procedure, currently restricted to symmetric‐plan buildings, is extended herein to unsymmetric‐plan buildings. The accuracy of the extended MPS procedure was evaluated for a large set of three‐degree‐of‐freedom unsymmetric‐plan structures with variable stiffness and strength. The structures were subjected to nonlinear response history analysis considering sets of seven records scaled according to the MPS procedure. Structural responses were compared against the benchmark values, defined as the median values of the engineering demand parameters due to 30 unscaled records. This evaluation of the MPS procedure has led to the following conclusions: (i) the MPS procedure provided accurate estimates of median engineering demand parameter values and reduced record‐to‐record variability of the responses; and (2) the MPS procedure is found to be much superior compared to the ASCE/SEI 7‐10 scaling procedure for three‐dimensional analysis of unsymmetric‐plan buildings. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

市、县基础测绘规划中航空摄影规划及其数据采集方法

基础航空摄影产品是服务于社会各行各业的重要基础测绘成果,但多数市、县级基础测绘规划任务中缺少对基础航空摄影的规划。本文以测绘行业的相关法律法规为基础,探索了在市、县级基础测绘规划实施过程中,基础航空摄影的规划方案和基于基础航空摄影测量的数据采集方法,从而提高了基础测绘产品服务经济社会发展的水平和效率。     

基于GIS的市政管网管理系统构建与实例

首先介绍了地下管线规划管理的现状与需求,提出研究的背景和目标,然后通过系统总体的分析与设计,确定系统建设的原则与架构。在此基础上,结合研究区域进行系统的功能设计与研制,建立了市政管网数据库,实现了系统管理与维护功能、各专业管线子系统管理功能等。本系统可为研究区域市政管网的规划、设计与管理提供可靠的支持。