以菏泽地震为例探讨地震学综合预测方法

在前人提出的地震预测方法基础上提出一种地震学综合预测方法。 首先利用动态图像方法(地震条带与地震空区)大致确定潜在地震危险区; 然后利用中、 强地震产生的库仑应力确定孕震区; 最后利用地震矩快速释放模型和相关长度增长模型判断孕震区是否进入短临状态。 在地震三要素预测中, 发挥地震学典型预测方法的优势, 并且对相关性较小的预测方法的预测结论相互对比、 印证, 以便得出更可靠的预测结果。 文中还利用这种综合预测方法对1983年菏泽5.9级做了简略研究, 结果表明这种综合预测方法的预测结果和菏泽地震基本上是一致的。     

川滇地区地震活动单键群分析

利用单键群（即ＳＬＣ）分析方法,通过有关ＳＬＣ特征参量的时间滑移分析,结合１９７０年以来的区域地震活动和构造环境,分析了川滇西部地区的地震活动。较之７０年代和８０年代,９０年代的地震活动在总体上是处于中等强度的活动水平。文章认为,ＳＬＣ方法考虑了地震事件的时空关联性,可以用来分析地震活动趋势,是研究地震活动性的有用工具。     

Free spanning analysis of offshore pipelines

A rigorous procedure was established on the free span analysis of offshore pipelines. The closed form solutions of the beam–column equation, considering tension and compressive force, were derived for the various possible boundary conditions. The solutions can be used to find the natural frequencies of the free spans using the energy balance concept. The results can be applied to improve the current design codes. The improved procedure will yield more realistic calculations of the allowable free span lengths of offshore pipelines. Some calculations are included to present the sensitivity of the axial forces on the allowable free spanning lengths.     

Sharks caught in the KwaZulu-Natal bather protection programme,South Africa. 14. The smooth hammerhead shark Sphyrna zygaena (Linnaeus)

The current study provides long-term catch-rate, biological and feeding data for smooth hammerhead sharks, Sphyrna zygaena, caught in South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal bather protection programme. In total, 2 512 S. zygaena were caught in net installations between 1978 and 2014, and 72 S. zygaena were caught on drumlines between 2007 and 2014. There was no significant log-linear year trend in the net catch rate over time (slope = 0.0054, t = 1.808, p = 0.07). However, there was a significant temporal increase in mean size of the captured sharks (slope = 0.0012, t = 3.502, p < 0.001). A quasi-Poisson generalised additive mixed model showed that increasing latitude, winter months, colder sea temperatures and the deployment of drumlines all had a significant positive effect on the catch rate of sharks in nets. The size frequency of the catch was unimodal, with significantly more females caught in the nets and more males on the drumlines. The majority (93.1%) of all sharks caught were immature and measured between 80 and 120 cm precaudal length. Teleosts and cephalopods dominated the sharks’ diet in terms of all dietary indices. The prey species consumed indicate that immature S. zygaena are feeding primarily within the pelagic zone of shallow coastal habitats.     

Mapping QTLs of caudal fin length in common carp (Cyprinus carpio L.)

Common carp (Cyprinus carpio L.) exhibits significant morphological variability in the shape and size of the caudal fin. In this study, we used 190 progeny from two F₁ parents to identify and map quantitative trait loci (QTLs) that influence caudal fin length (CFL) and the ratio (RCS) between caudal fin length and standard length (SL) based on a microsatellite genetic map of common carp. A total of 15 QTLs were detected in seven different linkage groups. One significant and eight suggestive QTLs affecting CFL were identified on LG8, LG14, LG29, LG32 and LG44, which explained 8.0%–22.1% of the phenotypic variation; six suggestive QTLs affecting RCS were detected on LG8, LG32, LG46 and LG48, which explained 7.0%–15.4% of the phenotypic variation. The QTLs for caudal fin length detected in this study may serve as a starting point for identification of genes involved in caudal fin development in common carp.     

First documented southern transatlantic migration of a blue shark Prionace glauca tagged off South Africa

The first documented recapture of a South African-tagged juvenile blue shark Prionace glauca off Uruguay lends weight to the hypothesis of a single blue shark population in the South Atlantic. The presence of neonate blue sharks with umbilical scars and females with post-parturition scars, as well as the high frequency of small juveniles in research longline catches, confirm the existence of a parturition and nursery area off South Africa. The final positions of three tagged sharks suggest that large-scale movement patterns in the South Atlantic are a mirror image of movements in the North Atlantic, with sharks using the north-westerly Benguela Drift to migrate into the tropics and ultimately across into South American waters. The confirmed existence of a parturition and nursery area off the south coast of South Africa and the movement of sharks into both adjacent ocean basins suggest that the southern African blue sharks are part of a single stock that straddles the South Atlantic and Indian oceans, and possibly the entire Southern Hemisphere.     

Length‐mass models for some common New Zealand littoral‐benthic macroinvertebrates,with a note on within‐taxon variability in parameter values among published models

Regression models are developed and presented to predict dry mass (mg) from two linear dimensions (mm) for 17 benthic macroinvertebrate taxa common to littoral zones of New Zealand lakes. We also provide regression models to predict body length from head capsule width for the major insect taxa. Dry mass was best explained as a power function of all linear dimensions: M = aL _b .Parameters are presented in the log₁₀‐transformed linear form of this power function. Body length was a simple linear function of head capsule width for all insect taxa, hence parameters for these models are presented as untransformed values. We also provide family level models for the Chironomidae, and compare our chironomid body length‐mass model with other published Chrionomidae length‐mass models. There was a very high degree of variability in parameter values among published length‐mass models for the family Chironomidae (mean coefficient of variation for mass at length = 148%). We discuss the potential causes and implications of this variability.     

东海太平洋褶柔鱼角质颚的形态学分析

依据2010年9月及2011年5月、9月东海渔业资源底拖网调查采集的139尾(雌性66尾,雄性73尾)太平洋褶柔鱼(Todarodes pacificus)样本的胴长、体重和角质颚各部分的长度数据,分析了东海太平洋褶柔鱼角质颚的形态学特征。结果表明:(1)太平洋褶柔鱼角质颚上、下颚的喙长(RL)、头盖长(HL)、脊突长(CL)、翼长(WL)、翼宽(WW)等长度差异较大;(2)伴随RL的增长,HL、CL、WL、WW呈现极显著的异速生长特征(P<0.001);(3)各长度指标随胴长、体重的增长呈显著的线性增长趋势;(4)RL/CL、HL/CL的比值非常稳定,随胴长、体重的变化很小,可作为东海太平洋褶柔鱼角质颚形态特征的稳定指标。     

Nonlinear optimization method of ship floating condition calculation in wave based on vector

Ship floating condition in regular waves is calculated. New equations controlling any ship＇s floating condition are proposed by use of the vector operation. This form is a nonlinear optimization problem which can be solved using the penalty function method with constant coefficients. And the solving process is accelerated by dichotomy. During the solving process, the ship＇s displacement and buoyant centre have been calculated by the integration of the ship surface according to the waterline. The ship surface is described using an accumulative chord length theory in order to determine the displacement, the buoyancy center and the waterline. The draught forming the waterline at each station can be found out by calculating the intersection of the ship surface and the wave surface. The results of an example indicate that this method is exact and efficient. It can calculate the ship floating condition in regular waves as well as simplify the calculation and improve the computational efficiency and the precision of results.