哈萨克斯坦扎尔干特-阿拉善30号井前兆异常特征

介绍了哈萨克斯坦扎尔干特阿拉善30号井的水文地球化学环境,对其15年来的交换资料进行了初步的统计与分析。结果表明,在震中距为300 km、400 km范围内,5级、6级地震的异常项目比例分别可达55.6%、61.1%,而7级大震(或6级震群)远兆的异常比例仅为16.7%。且在异常时间、异常形态上,5级、6级和7级地震(或6级震群)各有其特点和差异。     

开展空间天气业务对广东社会经济的影响

通过对空间天气和空间天气学的描述,介绍空间天气学的研究内容、方法、监测手段以及空间天气灾害的危害;分析了在广东开展空间天气业务的必要性,并对如何开展广东空间天气业务提出建议。     

徐州龟山汉墓病害及其产生原因分析

通过介绍徐州龟山汉墓的建筑特点及病害特征,分析了汉墓病害的产生原因,为治理病害的施工图设计及具体文物加固保护方案提供了极为有益的借鉴资料.     

黄龙钙华景观演化特征及保护措施探讨

黄龙景区因其拥有千姿百态、色彩斑斓的钙华景观而享誉世界,本文从钙华景观的演化特征及演化周期研究出发,认为景观区内钙华的退化仅仅是局部的和反复的,而景观的演化具有明显的周期性,其演化的周期约为300 a.同时,通过分析得出水循环系统、水流改道及流态和景观水的漏失等是影响黄龙钙华景观演化的主要因素,并提出了有针对性的保护措施建议.     

湖南雷暴天气中地闪活动的预报研究

利用湖南地区ADTD闪电定位仪资料,结合NCEP／NCAR再分析资料,对湖南夏季雷暴发生过程中地闪的区域特征、及地闪与大气不稳定参数的相关关系进行分析,提出地闪活动预报的诊断指标并建立不同区域地闪数的预报方程。结果表明：采用经验正交方法研究地闪活动的空间分布特征发现湖南地闪活动可分为3个区域：湘西山地区、湘东北平原区及湘南山地区,各区与地闪相关性好的不稳定参数分别为,湘西山地区：对流不稳定能量、抬升指数、修正K指数及粗理查逊数;湘东北平原区：抬升指数、修正K指数及大气可降水量;湘南山地区：通气管指数。并且不稳定参数与地闪数具有一定的回归关系,各区潜势预报方程对实际应用具有参考价值。     

由垂直入射脉冲和海底回波反演海底声参数

浅海海底声参数是影响声场传播的重要参量。文中根据信号的相位特性对反演稳定性的影响进行了数值模拟;并于2002年8月在黄海海区进行了海底声参数反演实验。利用垂直入射脉冲和海底回波数据进行海底声参数反演,由于海底回波信号随穿透深度增加而导致回波信号的信噪比降低,为了有效地增加海底声阻抗反演深度,提出平滑分段抽取冲激响应,重建声阻抗剖面的方法。结合Hamilton经验公式,分离海底声速、密度,反演结果与海底采样样本分析值、经验值吻合较好。     

宁夏近44 a霜冻的气候变化特征

对宁夏1961~2004年间霜冻发生次数、霜期的变化特征进行了分析,结果表明:宁夏霜冻发生主要集中在4月和10月,出现次数4月中旬最多,春季霜冻明显多于秋季;发生次数南北差异较大,宁南山区发生频率较高,年平均发生次数达8.7~10.8次。同心出现次数最少,年平均只有2.1次;霜冻发生次数阶段性变化呈"1升1降"和"1升2降"分布,总体呈下降趋势,其中6月、秋季下降趋势明显。霜冻年发生次数的跃变点是1984年,跃变年以后霜冻发生次数明显减少;3个区域的气候变化趋势均为初霜日逐渐推迟,终霜日逐渐提前,无霜期逐渐延长。     

Quantifying uncertainty in changes in extreme event frequency in response to doubled CO2 using a large ensemble of GCM simulations

We discuss equilibrium changes in daily extreme surface air temperature and precipitation events in response to doubled atmospheric CO₂, simulated in an ensemble of 53 versions of HadSM3, consisting of the HadAM3 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a mixed layer ocean. By virtue of its size and design, the ensemble, which samples uncertainty arising from the parameterisation of atmospheric physical processes and the effects of natural variability, provides a first opportunity to quantify the robustness of predictions of changes in extremes obtained from GCM simulations. Changes in extremes are quantified by calculating the frequency of exceedance of a fixed threshold in the 2 × CO₂ simulation relative to the 1 × CO₂ simulation. The ensemble-mean value of this relative frequency provides a best estimate of the expected change while the range of values across the ensemble provides a measure of the associated uncertainty. For example, when the extreme threshold is defined as the 99th percentile of the 1 × CO₂ distribution, the global-mean ensemble-mean relative frequency of extremely warm days is found to be 20 in January, and 28 in July, implying that events occurring on one day per hundred under present day conditions would typically occur on 20–30 days per hundred under 2 × CO₂ conditons. However the ensemble range in the relative frequency is of similar magnitude to the ensemble-mean value, indicating considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the increase. The relative frequencies in response to doubled CO₂ become smaller as the threshold used to define the extreme event is reduced. For one variable (July maximum daily temperature) we investigate this simulated variation with threshold, showing that it can be quite well reproduced by assuming the response to doubling CO₂ to be characterised simply as a uniform shift of a Gaussian distribution. Nevertheless, doubling CO₂ does lead to changes in the shape of the daily distributions for both temperature and precipitation, but the effect of these changes on the relative frequency of extreme events is generally larger for precipitation. For example, around one-fifth of the globe exhibits ensemble-mean decreases in time-averaged precipitation accompanied by increases in the frequency of extremely wet days. The ensemble range of changes in precipitation extremes (relative to the ensemble mean of the changes) is typically larger than for temperature extremes, indicating greater uncertainty in the precipitation changes. In the global average, extremely wet days are predicted to become twice as common under 2 × CO₂ conditions. We also consider changes in extreme seasons, finding that simulated increases in the frequency of extremely warm or wet seasons under 2 × CO₂ are almost everywhere greater than the corresponding increase in daily extremes. The smaller increases in the frequency of daily extremes is explained by the influence of day-to-day weather variability which inflates the variance of daily distributions compared to their seasonal counterparts.     

陆面过程和大气边界层相互作用敏感性实验

文中建立了一个研究陆面物理过程与大气边界层相互作用的模式。模拟了草原下垫面的土壤 环境物理、地面热量通量、蒸发、蒸散及大气边界层结构特征。并对主要的环境物理参数进 行了敏感性实验。结果表明，本模式能合理地模拟地表热量平衡、土壤体积含水量、植被蒸 发阻抗、地表水汽通量日变化和湍流交换系数、湍流动能、位温和比湿廓线等。该模式还可 进一步应用于研究城市陆面物理过程与大气边界层相互作用机制，及与中尺度大气模式耦合用于区域气候的研究。