M5'模型树算法和无人机航拍影像在震后崩塌滑坡分析中的应用——以鲁甸M_S6.5地震为例

利用高分辨率无人机航拍影像,结合基本地质资料,分析了影响2014年8月3日鲁甸M_S6.5地震震后崩塌滑坡分布的主要因素,使用M5'模型树算法建立了崩塌滑坡密度与其影响因子间的分段线性模型,并检验了该模型的预测性能。结果表明,地震诱发的崩塌滑坡分布受断层距、岩土体结构强度、坡度、植被条件等的影响,其中,断层距、岩土体结构强度及坡度等为主要影响因素;崩塌滑坡易发生在结构破裂区及坡度为38°~50°的区域,其分布密度随断层距的增加而减小;利用M5'模型树算法建立的模型体现出崩塌滑坡分布与其影响因子间复杂的非线性关系,模型检验结果显示,理论模型与实际关联函数间的相关系数达到0.88,因此,可利用该模型预测地震诱发的崩塌滑坡的分布。     

基于植被物候特征的互花米草提取方法研究——以长三角湿地为例

互花米草自1979年引进我国以来迅速增长,呈现外来物种入侵势态,严重影响了滨海湿地生态系统平衡。通过遥感手段监测可以获取互花米草的时空扩展规律,为互花米草治理提供参考和依据。本文选取长三角地区3个主要湿地区域为研究区,依托Google Earth Engine (GEE)平台选取了2014—2019年Landsat 8 OLI时间序列数据,提出了一种基于物候特征的互花米草提取方法。首先,通过归一化差异湿度指数(NDMI)、归一化差异植被指数(NDVI)和归一化差异水体指数(NDWI)提取互花米草生长的高湿度区域;然后,通过植被指数构建表征植被物候特征的时间序列曲线,确定互花米草与其他植被的物候特征差异时相;最后,基于物候特征差异时相数据构建决策树提取互花米草。通过与现有的互花米草决策树提取方法和支持向量机(SVM)方法对比发现,本文方法在3个研究区的提取结果均为最优提取结果,表明本文的方法对提取互花米草具有较好的适用性。     

基于模糊评价理论的海洋工程采办过程风险分析方法研究

在具体研究了现代项目风险分析和风险管理常用方法基础上,将其中的事故树法、智爆法及风险指数致命度分析法相结合,利用模糊评价理论,建立了海洋工程采办过程风险分析方法。应用该方法对“曹妃甸11-1／2(CFD11-1／2)”项目的采办过程进行风险分析,得到了采办过程中的风险事故树及风险指数排序,并对风险指数较大的风险点提出建议及改进措施,进行风险规避,对工程实践起到了很好的指导作用。     

浅论自发地理信息的数据管理

分析了自发地理信息(volunteered geographic information,VGI)数据的来源、分类、特点与管理要求,探讨了VGI数据清理与质量控制,研究了以高效处理绘图查询与数据更新为目标的VGI图形数据管理问题,提出了动态线综合二叉树与缩放四叉树的设计思想,以解决VGI图形数据管理中的难点问题。     

基于树轮宽度重建川西南137年秋冬季平均气温变化

在全球气候变暖背景下,青藏高原东南缘的川滇横断山高海拔地区秋冬季温度变化已经成为区域气候变化研究热点。为了更好地了解长时间尺度下秋冬季平均气温变化对树木生长的影响,本文运用泸沽湖地区丽江云杉(Picea likiangensis)树轮宽度资料,建立了标准年表。并基于气温与树轮宽度指数的关系,重建了过去137年来川西南地区的秋冬季平均气温波动历史。重建序列存在2个暖期(1911~1927 A.D.,1992~2015 A.D.)、1个冷期(1939~1991 A.D.)。与其他树轮序列、沉积记录及历史记录的比较和空间相关分析,显示重建结果可靠,且具有区域代表性。集合经验模态(EEMD)分解得到2 a、19 a和54 a的周期控制序列冷暖波动。厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO),太阳黑子,太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)和北大西洋涛动(NAO)可能是以上周期的驱动因子.     

基于随机森林模型的农业电子商务浅析——洛川苹果网络销售问题与对策

随着互联网产业的飞速发展,电子商务开始进入农业领域。以电子商务起步较早的"洛川苹果"作为研究对象进行调研。基于随机森林模型的决策树集成算法,对农业网络销售体系整体进行数据分析,模型构建,从问题表象出发挖掘其在不同部分的影响因子,最终基于影响因素解决问题,提出合理化建议:加强农村基础设施建设、健全农村公共服务体系以及完善农村电子商务培训制度等,因地制宜,推进农业电子商务的健康发展。     

How do machine learning techniques help in increasing accuracy of landslide susceptibility maps?

Landslides are abundant in mountainous regions.They are responsible for substantial damages and losses in those areas.The A1 Highway,which is an important road in Algeria,was sometimes constructed in mountainous and/or semi-mountainous areas.Previous studies of landslide susceptibility mapping conducted near this road using statistical and expert methods have yielded ordinary results.In this research,we are interested in how do machine learning techniques help in increasing accuracy of landslide susceptibility maps in the vicinity of the A1 Highway corridor.To do this,an important section at Ain Bouziane(NE,Algeria) is chosen as a case study to evaluate the landslide susceptibility using three different machine learning methods,namely,random forest(RF),support vector machine(SVM),and boosted regression tree(BRT).First,an inventory map and nine input factors were prepared for landslide susceptibility mapping(LSM) analyses.The three models were constructed to find the most susceptible areas to this phenomenon.The results were assessed by calculating the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve,the standard error(Std.error),and the confidence interval(CI) at 95%.The RF model reached the highest predictive accuracy(AUC=97.2%) comparatively to the other models.The outcomes of this research proved that the obtained machine learning models had the ability to predict future landslide locations in this important road section.In addition,their application gives an improvement of the accuracy of LSMs near the road corridor.The machine learning models may become an important prediction tool that will identify landslide alleviation actions.     

Polynomial chaos expansion and response surface method for nonlinear modelling of reference evapotranspiration

The feasibility of polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) and response surface method (RSM) models is investigated for modelling reference evapotranspiration (ET₀). The modelling results of the proposed models are validated against the M5 model tree and multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) methods. Two meteorological stations, Isparta and Antalya, in the Mediterranean region of Turkey, are inspected. Various input combinations of daily air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and relative humidity are constructed as input attributes for the ET₀. Generally, the modelling accuracy is increased by increasing the number of inputs. Including wind speed in the model inputs considerably increases their accuracy in modelling ET₀. Mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), agreement index (d) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) are used as comparison criteria. The PCE is the most accurate model in estimating daily ET₀, giving the lowest MAE (0.036 and 0.037 mm) and RMSE (0.047 and 0.050 mm) and the highest d (0.9998 and 0.9999) and NSE (0.9992 and 0.9996) with the four-input PCE models for Isparta and Antalya, respectively.     

Evaporation modelling by heuristic regression approaches using only temperature data

Accurate estimation of pan evaporation (E_pan) is very important in water resources management, irrigation scheduling and water budget of lakes. This study investigates the accuracy of two heuristic regression approaches, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and M5 model tree (M5Tree) in estimating pan evaporation using only temperature data as input. Monthly minimum temperature, maximum temperature and E_pan data from three Turkish stations were used, with month number (periodicity information) added as input to see its effect on estimation accuracy. The models were compared with the calibrated Hargreaves-Samani (CHS), Stephens-Stewart (SS) and multiple linear regression methods. Three different train-test splitting strategies (50%–50%, 60%–40% and 75%–25%) were employed for better evaluation of the applied methods. The results show that the MARS method generally estimated monthly E_pan with higher accuracy compared to the M5Tree, CHS and SS methods. When extraterrestrial radiation, calculated from Julian date and latitude information, was used as input to the SS instead of solar radiation, satisfactory estimates were obtained. A positive effect on model accuracy was observed when involving periodicity information in inputs and increasing training data length.     

一株淡水红藻的形态及分子系统发育研究

以采自山西晋祠泉的一株淡水红藻JC1712001为实验材料,对其进行分子系统发育分析和形态特征鉴定,同时利用分子数据对其进行生物地理学研究.结果显示,该株淡水红藻JC1712001与美国、西班牙地区报道的马赫拉熊野藻（Kumanoa mahlacensis Kumano）遗传距离最近,基于rbcL、COI和UPA序列的遗传距离均为0.基于3个序列,利用贝叶斯法、最大似然法和邻接法3种方法构建的系统发育树具有高度一致的系统发育关系,JC1712001均与西班牙及美国地区已报道的马赫拉熊野藻聚为一支,支持率都在97%以上,支持其为马赫拉熊野藻,同时也表明3个基因的高度保守性.形态特征的观察也支持这个结果.马赫拉熊野藻在欧洲、亚洲、北美洲均有分布,RASP软件构建的地理起源图谱显示,欧洲类群地理起源更为古老.马赫拉熊野藻为稀有种,本文的研究结果丰富了我国淡水红藻的分布,为其系统发育和地理起源研究提供了依据.