浅水分潮对海岸潮致地下水波动特征的影响

基于一维Boussinesq方程,在斜坡海岸边界条件中考虑了半日潮及其浅水分潮的综合作用,应用摄动法得到了方程的二阶解。通过与现场实测资料和数值解的比较,分析了浅水分潮对海岸潮致地下水波动特征的影响。分析结果显示,考虑浅水分潮后,方程数值解能较好地反映实测的潮致地下水波动基本特征;方程各阶摄动解虽与现场实测数据有一定误差,但基本上能反映其波动的趋势性特征。研究结果表明,浅水分潮对海岸潮致地下水波动振幅及其超高值的影响比较显著,也能较好地改善相位上的偏移,因此在对海岸潮致地下水波动特征进行研究分析时,应该考虑浅水分潮的作用。     

弹性波逆散射微扰论

本文将普遍声逆散射微扰论应用于弹性波层析成像问题,在Born变换下推出了以旋转角为补偿参数的各阶微扰重建公式,实现了对非均匀各向同性散射体内3个参数（质量密度ρ和两个Lamé系数λ,μ）的同时重建. 对于层析成像问题,在弹性波的传播过程中P波与SV波有耦合,但它们不会和SH波发生耦合,于是可以得到3个形式相对简单的标量方程. 在Born变换下,在散射波中引入微扰参数,将散射体的3个参数分别按该微扰参数展开,然后利用二维自由空间的Green函数分别得到散射的P波、SV波和SH波的积分表示. 最后,经一维傅氏变换后,得到Born变换下散射体3个参数的各阶微扰重建公式.     

Recent Advances in Predictability Studies in China （1999-2002）

Since the last International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) General Assembly (1999), the predictability studies in China have made further progress during the period of 1999-2002. Firstly, three predictability sub-problems in numerical weather and climate prediction are classified, which are concerned with the maximum predictability time, the maximum prediction error, and the maximum allowable initial error, and then they are reduced into three nonlinear optimization problems. Secondly, the concepts of the nonlinear singular vector (NSV) and conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) are proposed,which have been utilized to study the predictability of numerical weather and climate prediction. The results suggest that the nonlinear characteristics of the motions of atmosphere and oceans can be revealedby NSV and CNOP. Thirdly, attention has also been paid to the relations between the predictability and spatial-temporal scale, and between the model predictability and the machine precision, of which the investigations disclose the importance of the spatial-temporal scale and machine precision in the study of predictability. Also the cell-to-cell mapping is adopted to analyze globally the predictability of climate,which could provide a new subject to the research workers. Furthermore, the predictability of the summer rainfall in China is investigated by using the method of correlation coefficients. The results demonstrate that the predictability of summer rainfall is different in different areas of China. Analysis of variance, which is one of the statistical methods applicable to the study of predictability, is also used to study the potential predictability of monthly mean temperature in China, of which the conclusion is that the monthly mean temperature over China is potentially predictable at a statistical significance level of 0.10. In addition,in the analysis of the predictability of the T106 objective analysis/forecasting field, the variance and the correlation coefficient are calculated to explore the distribution characteristics of the mean-square errors.Finally, the predictability of short-term climate prediction is investigated by using statistical methods or numerical simulation methods. It is demonstrated that the predictability of short-term climate in China depends not only on the region of China being investigated, but also on the time scale and the atmospheric internal dynamical process.     

Optimal precursor of the transition from Kuroshio large meander to straight path

We used the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) method to explore the optimal precursor of the transition from Kuroshio large meander(LM) to straight path within a barotropic inflowoutflow model,and found that large amplitudes of the optimal precursor are mainly located in the east of Kyushu,which implies that perturbations in the region are important for the transition from LM to straight path.Furthermore,we investigated the transition processes caused by the optimal precursor,and found that these processes could be divided into three stages.In the first stage,a cyclonic eddy is advected to the formation region of the Kuroshio large meander,which enhances the LM path and causes a cyclonic eddy to shed from the Kuroshio mainstream.This process causes the LM path to change into a small meander path.Subsequently,the small meander is maintained for a period because the vorticity advection is balanced by the beta effect in the second stage.In the third stage,the small meander weakens and the straight path ultimately forms.The positive vorticity advecting downstream is responsible for this process.The exploration of the optimal precursor will conduce to improve the prediction of the transition processes from LM path to straight path,and its spatial structure can be used to guide Kuroshio targeted observation studies.     

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不同摄动力对低中高轨航天器轨道的影响分析

通过两行根数获取轨道初值,以数值积分方法进行轨道预报,比较不同航天器的主要摄动力影响,并按航天器的轨道类型进行总结与分析。结果表明,地球非球形引力是产生位移偏量最大的摄动力,大气阻力和三体引力摄动与轨道高度有明显联系,太阳光压摄动力具有与航天器运行周期一致的周期特征。     

Density estimation of two-phase flow with multiscale and randomly perturbed data

In this paper, we describe an efficient approach for quantifying uncertainty in two-phase flow applications due to perturbations of the permeability in a multiscale heterogeneous porous medium. The method is based on the application of the multiscale finite element method within the framework of Monte Carlo simulation and an efficient preprocessing construction of the multiscale basis functions. The quantities of interest for our applications are the Darcy velocity and breakthrough time and we quantify their uncertainty by constructing the respective cumulative distribution functions. For the Darcy velocity we use the multiscale finite element method, but due to lack of conservation, we apply the multiscale finite volume element method as an alternative for use with the two-phase flow problem. We provide a number of numerical examples to illustrate the performance of the method.     

大气阻力引起卫星轨道衰减的数值模拟

本文以德国低轨道卫星CHAMP为例,联合考虑地球扁率和大气阻力摄动的影响,对相应摄动方程进行数值积分,计算轨道根数变化,并进而计算得到卫星空间位置,由此模拟考察大气阻力引起的轨道高度衰减.模拟中使用综合考虑了太阳辐射和磁暴等多种因素影响的最新国际大气标准JB2008模式来计算热层大气密度. 选取CHAMP卫星轨道高度自然衰减（无点火提升卫星高度操作）的2005全年进行模拟;为了考察不同年份阻力系数的可能变化,对2002年1—3月处在较大高度的轨道也进行了模拟.考虑到CHAMP卫星的特殊几何构形及飞行高度的热层温度条件,取阻力系数大于2.8,并在一定范围内变化,以求得模拟与实际轨道衰减符合较好.结果表明,对于2005年,阻力系数为2.91时模拟得到的轨道高度的衰减与实际轨道衰减符合得最好,模拟与实际轨道半长轴全年的标准偏差为81m;在卫星高度稍高的2002年,模拟的最佳阻力系数为3.0;模拟所得最佳阻力系数值比传统使用的值2.2大30%以上.由于在模拟中忽略了高阶保守力分量,所得近/远地点高度没有出现实际轨道所显示的周期性起伏.     

GPS卫星精密定轨中的摄动力分析

在介绍各种摄动模型的基础上,将IGS提供的SP3精密星历作为几何轨道,应用不同的摄动模型进行几何轨道平滑,求得卫星轨道的动力学参数,再用动力学参数积分求定卫星的轨道,将其与IGS提供的SP3精密星历进行比较,从而详细分析每一种摄动力对GPS轨道影响的量级,而且说明建立的GPS卫星轨道的摄动模型是比较准确的。     

天津轨道交通对地磁观测干扰的影响研究

直流牵引城市轨道交通系统在运行过程中产生的磁场对我国大城市周边地磁台站的观测数据产生较为严重的干扰.城市轨道交通运行过程中产生泄露电流是产生干扰的重要原因.本文以真空中的线电流磁场计算模型为基础,通过简化的远场磁场干扰模型对天津地铁轨道交通干扰进行理论建模.该模型计算简洁高效.通过对模型的数值模拟,获得了干扰随距离衰减...