The scientific legacy of Harold Edwin Hurst (1880–1978)

ABSTRACT

Emanating from his remarkable characterization of long-term variability in geophysical records in the early 1950s, Hurst’s scientific legacy to hydrology and other disciplines is explored. A statistical explanation of the so-called “Hurst Phenomenon” did not emerge until 1968 when Mandelbrot and co-authors proposed fractional Gaussian noise based on the hypothesis of infinite memory. A vibrant hydrological literature ensued where alternative modelling representations were explored and debated, e.g. ARMA models, the Broken Line model, shifting mean models with no memory, FARIMA models, and Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics, acknowledging a link with the work of Kolmogorov in 1940. The diffusion of Hurst’s work beyond hydrology is summarized by discipline and citations, showing that he arguably has the largest scientific footprint of any hydrologist in the last century. Its particular relevance to the modelling of long-term climatic variability in the era of climate change is discussed. Links to various long-term modes of variability in the climate system, driven by fluctuations in sea surface temperatures and ocean dynamics, are explored. Several issues related to the Hurst Phenomenon in hydrology remain as a challenge for future research.

Editor M. Acreman; Associate editor A. Carsteanu     

The impact of well‐field configuration on contaminant mass removal and plume persistence for homogeneous versus layered systems

A three‐dimensional numerical model was used to simulate the impact of different well‐field configurations on pump‐and‐treat mass removal efficiency for large groundwater contaminant plumes residing in homogeneous and layered domains. Four well‐field configurations were tested, Longitudinal, Distributed, Downgradient, and natural gradient (with no extraction wells). The reductions in contaminant mass discharge (CMDR) as a function of mass removal (MR) were characterized to assess remediation efficiency. Systems whose CDMR‐MR profiles are below the 1:1 relationship curve are associated with more efficient well‐field configurations. For simulations conducted with the homogeneous domain, the CMDR‐MR curves shift leftward, from convex‐downward profiles for natural gradient and Longitudinal to first‐order behaviour for Distributed, and further leftward to a sigmoidal profile for the Downgradient well‐field configuration. These results reveal the maximum potential impacts of well‐field configuration on mass‐removal behaviour, which is attributed to mass‐transfer constraints associated with regions of low flow. In contrast, for the simulations conducted with the layered domain, the CMDR‐MR relationships for the different well‐field configurations exhibit convex‐upward profiles. The nonideal mass‐removal behaviour in this case is influenced by both well‐field configuration and back diffusion associated with low‐permeability units.