能谱CT结合血清标志物在冠脉斑块特征分析中的研究

目的：探讨能谱CT分析不同冠脉斑块成分的价值以及与不同血清学标志物水平之间的相关性,为能谱CT对斑块特征的诊断及鉴别诊断价值提供依据。方法：107名诊断为冠心病或急性发作性胸痛以及心前区不适的患者（男65例,女42例;平均年龄60岁）,均行冠状动脉能谱CT扫描。将所有冠脉斑块根据CT值以及混合斑块中的钙化大小分为5组。用能谱分析软件分析冠脉斑块不同成分。斑块的易损性用血清标志物进行评估。血清标志物的浓度通过酶联免疫吸附法测定。结果：共发现有159个冠脉斑块,抽取了90例血样,除1组与5组以及2组与5组之间的FAT浓度以外,五组斑块之间的CT值以及能谱参数均有统计学差异（P<0.05）。冠脉斑块阳性者3种血清标志物浓度明显高于冠脉斑块阴性者（P<0.05）。2组与3组以及3组与5组之间的基质金属蛋白酶-9（matrix metalloproteinases,MMP-9）血清浓度具有明显差异（P<0.05）。血清MMP-9浓度与斑块CT值（r=-0.501,P<0.05）、有效原子序数（r=-0.372,P<0.05）、能谱曲线斜率（r=-0.378,P<0.05）、HAP浓度（r=-0.411,P<0.05）之间呈负相关关系,而与FAT浓度之间呈正性相关关系（r=0.34,P<0.05）。受试者工作特征曲线（Receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC）分析显示2组与5组之间的能谱曲线斜率、有效原子序数以及HAP浓度临界值分别为3.41,8.91,96.07。结论：宝石能谱CT在不同类型的冠状动脉粥样硬化斑块的鉴别中具有一定的价值;能谱CT的四种能谱参数与血清MMP-9浓度之间具有一定的相关性。     

Use of microtremor measurement for assessing site effects in Northern Belgium – interpretation of the observed intensity during the MS = 5.0 June 11 1938 earthquake

To provide quantitative information on site effects in the northern part of Belgium, forty-seven H/V microtremor measurements were performed with 5 second seismometers over an area of about 15.000 km². Most of the results show a northward regular increase of the fundamental period in agreement with the augmentation of the Mesozoic and Cainozoic soft sedimentsthickness from a few meters 40 km south of Brussels to 900 m at the Netherlands-Belgium border. The measured resonance frequency values wereconsistent with theoretical computations performed at different sites onthe basis of existing information and shallow seismic experiments. At oneparticular site (Uccle) where borehole data were available, microtremor measurements using an array of four seismological stations with differentapertures allowed to obtain the low frequency part of the Rayleigh wave dispersion curve, extending the range covered by the analysis of surfacewaves artificially generated. The Vs profile derived from the surface waveinversion corroborates the 1 Hz natural frequency of the site. Comparison of these results with the macroseismic information concerning the M_S = 5.0 1938 earthquake which occurred 50 km west of Brussels,confirmed the hypothesis that the geological structure of the Brabant massifis likely to control damage distribution during such an earthquake. Comparisonbetween the intensity map of the 1938 earthquake and the resonance period ofsediments obtained by our microtremor study shows a clear relation betweenthe two parameters. During the 1938 earthquake, site effects played a prominent role due to the dimension of the source whose corner frequency wasabout 1 Hz.     

Seismic fragility analysis of composite frame structure based on performance

Steel-concrete composite structures that share the advantages of both steel structure and concrete structure have been developed rapidly and used widely. It has been a popular structure in high-rise buildings in recent years. Although more and more composite structures have been used in earthquake area, only a few literatures about fragility analysis of this type of structure are available. In this paper, a fragility analysis method based on performance is proposed, in which both the uncertainty due to vari...     

利用噪声记录估计福建地区中上地壳体波速度结构

In this paper,the dispersion curves of the Rayleigh wave and Love wave were extracted from the seismic noise records of 25 broadband stations of the Fujian Seismic Network, and inverted for the lithosphere velocity structure. Furthermore,the velocity model was verified by the seismic explosion observations. Our results indicate that the resolution of the lithosphere velocity structure obtained by this method is good in the shallow part,but in the deep part,inversion accuracy for the wave velocity structure is low,which is caused mainly by the small inter-station distance chosen in the paper. Thus the wave dispersion curves have high accuracy in the short-period part,but the warp of the wave dispersion curve in long-period part is large. Considering the results from both the noise inversion and the traditional inversion,we finally present a new velocity model,and the theoretical travel time calculated with the new model matches the explosion travel time very well.     

裂缝诱导HTI双孔隙介质中的裂缝参数分析

裂缝诱导HTI双孔隙介质模型是将一组垂直排列的裂缝系统嵌入到统计各向同性的孔隙岩石基质系统中而建立的.为了研究裂缝参数对地震波在该模型中传播规律的影响,本文分别对裂缝弱度、裂缝孔隙度和裂缝渗透率这三个主要的裂缝参数进行了分析研究.数值结果表明,裂缝诱导HTI双孔隙介质中,裂缝弱度越大,介质的各向异性强度越强;与基质孔隙系统相比,裂缝系统孔隙度对介质等效孔隙度的影响很小,而裂缝系统渗透率的增大则将显著提高介质在裂缝发育方向上的等效渗透率,这符合对裂缝系统"低孔"、"高渗"特性的认识.此外,裂缝系统渗透率的增大也使慢纵波的振幅显著增强.     

利用前兆事件对云南地区地震进行中短期预测研究

对某些类型的主震事件, 进行中短期预测也许是可能的. 利用Varnes, Bufe和Varnes提出的破裂时间法模拟前兆地震能量加速释放模型,通过实际观测资料与理论公式的拟合, 可以建立主地震事件的中短期预测技术, 用以确定表示主震的地点、时间和震级大小. 本文使用的是云南区域台网的地震目录资料,覆盖的时间段为1965~2002年. 统计分析表明,在此37年时间内,等于或大于2.5级地震资料是相当完整的. 本文对云南地区的30次主震事件进行了模拟,其中25次主震事件由前兆序列模拟得到的预测时间和震级与实际值相当接近,主震震级预测精度约0.57个震级单位,假定已知前兆序列中最后一次事件,则预测主震发生时间误差约0.64年.对另外的5次主震事件,由于没有足够的前兆事件来充分确定前兆能量加速曲线或是存在对能量加速释放曲线的干扰事件,而不能进行破裂时间法模拟.本文的研究结果还表明,由于云南是破坏性地震和中小地震活跃的地区,因此,主地震与前兆事件最佳搜索半径不存在明显的线性关系.主震矩与系数k,m之间存在强烈的相关性,利用主震地震矩与系数的关系和限制指数m的取值范围,可进一步缩小预测时间和预测震级的最佳拟合区范围,提高了模拟主震事件的预测精度. 本文采用破裂时间法对30次主震事件进行拟合,80％以上获得了较好的结果. 显示出该方法在预测已知主震事件序列的能力方面大有希望,因此,利用前兆事件对未来主震事件进行中短期预测的前景是令人鼓舞的.     

Heat transfer coefficients of natural volcanic clasts

Heat transfer coefficients used in numerical simulations of volcanic eruptions are typically borrowed from industrial settings where the coefficients are well determined for non-permeable, machined (spherical) materials. Volcanic clasts, in contrast, are permeable and have irregular shapes. We performed a series of laboratory experiments to determine heat transfer coefficients for natural volcanic particles. We measured the surface and interior temperatures during cooling at wind speeds ranging from 0 to 10 m/s. We also measured the permeability and density of the particles. We find that the permeability of the particles has little effect on clast cooling. In the absence of any wind, heat loss occurs by free convection, and we find no relationship between the heat transfer coefficient and particle density. However, for non-zero Reynolds numbers (finite wind speed), the heat transfer coefficient decreases with increasing porosity. We obtain a correlation for the dimensionless heat loss, or Nusselt number, of the form Nu = 2 + aRe^1/2Pr^1/3 where a is a density dependent coefficient given by a = 0.00022ρ + 0.31, with ρ in kg/m³, and Re and Pr are the Reynolds number and Prandtl number, respectively. Compared with non-porous particles, heat transfer coefficients for natural pumice clasts are reduced by a factor of 2–3 for particles with similar Re. Numerical simulations show that this leads to an increase in depositional temperature by 50–90 °C.     

Wavelet and Neuro‐fuzzy Conjunction Approach for Suspended Sediment Prediction

Simulation approaches employed in suspended sediment processes are important in the areas of water resources and environmental engineering. In the current study, neuro‐fuzzy (NF), a combination of wavelet transform and neuro‐fuzzy (WNF), multi linear regression (MLR), and the conventional sediment rating curve (SRC) models were considered for suspended sediment load (S) modeling in a gauging station in the USA. In the proposed WNF model, the discrete wavelet analysis was linked to a NF approach. To achieve this aim, the observed time series of river flow discharge (Q) and S were decomposed to sub time series at different scales by discrete wavelet transform. Afterwards, the effective sub time series were added together to obtain a useful Q and S time series for prediction. Eventually, the obtained total time series were imposed as inputs to the NF method for daily S prediction. The results illustrated that the predicted values by the proposed WNF model were in good agreement with the observed S values and gave better results than other models. Furthermore, the WNF model satisfactorily estimated the cumulative suspended sediment load and produced relatively reasonable predictions for extreme values of S, while NF, MLR, and SRC models provided unacceptable predictions.     

Impacts of uncertain river flow data on rainfall‐runoff model calibration and discharge predictions

In order to quantify total error affecting hydrological models and predictions, we must explicitly recognize errors in input data, model structure, model parameters and validation data. This paper tackles the last of these: errors in discharge measurements used to calibrate a rainfall‐runoff model, caused by stage–discharge rating‐curve uncertainty. This uncertainty may be due to several combined sources, including errors in stage and velocity measurements during individual gaugings, assumptions regarding a particular form of stage–discharge relationship, extrapolation of the stage–discharge relationship beyond the maximum gauging, and cross‐section change due to vegetation growth and/or bed movement. A methodology is presented to systematically assess and quantify the uncertainty in discharge measurements due to all of these sources. For a given stage measurement, a complete PDF of true discharge is estimated. Consequently, new model calibration techniques can be introduced to explicitly account for the discharge error distribution. The method is demonstrated for a gravel‐bed river in New Zealand, where all the above uncertainty sources can be identified, including significant uncertainty in cross‐section form due to scour and re‐deposition of sediment. Results show that rigorous consideration of uncertainty in flow data results in significant improvement of the model's ability to predict the observed flow. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.