Standardization of baseline and additionality determination under the CDM

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project developers have long complained about the complexities of project-specific baseline setting and the vagaries of additionality determination. In response to this, the CDM Executive Board took bold steps towards the standardization of CDM methodologies, culminating in the approval of guidelines for the establishment of performance standards in November 2011. The guidelines specify a performance standard stringency level for both baseline and additionality of 80% for several priority sectors and 90% for all other sectors. However, an analysis of 14 large-scale CDM methodologies that use performance standard approaches challenges this top-down approach to the performance standard design. An appropriate performance standard stringency level strongly depends on sector and technology characteristics. A single stringency level for baseline and additionality determination is appropriate only for greenfield projects, but not for retrofit ones. Overly simple, highly aggregated performance standards are unlikely to ensure high environmental integrity, and difficult questions regarding stringency and updating frequency will eventually have to be addressed on a rather disaggregated level. A careful balance between data requirements and the practicability of performance standards is essential because the heavy data requirements of the existing performance standard methodologies have been the key barrier to their actual implementation.

Policy relevance

CDM regulators have been pushed by many stakeholders to standardize baseline setting and eliminate project-specific additionality determination. At first glance, performance standards seem to provide the perfect solution for both tasks. However, a one-size-fits-all political decision – e.g. the average of the top 20% performers as enshrined in the Marrakech Accords – is inappropriate. Substantial disaggregation of performance standards is required both technologically and geographically in order to limit over- and under-crediting and close loopholes for non-additional projects. As a lack of reliable and complete data has been and will be a key bottleneck for the development of performance standards, international support for data collection will be indispensable, but costly, and time-consuming. Empirically driven, techno-economic assessments of performance standard stringency levels must be the central task of the future work on standardized methodologies, and should not be sidelined by perceived needs of policy makers to take bold decisions under time pressures.     

用前期海温预报四川夏季气温的EOF迭代方案

应用ＥＯＦ（经验正交函数）迭代方案，考虑多时次历史资料，在全球海区海温与四川盆地气温非同步联系的基础上，以海温为预报因子进行了夏季气温的长期预报。结果表明：西太平洋高温区等关键海区海温的异常对未来四川盆地夏季气温变化有重要影响，由此建立的引入多时次海温的ＥＯＦ迭代长期温度预报方法，具有较强的预报能力     

Structural Control of Sand Bodies and Deep Exploration for Oil and Gas

The structural styles can be used to analyses and predict developments and distributions of sand bodies in a rift basin. The dynamic process of faulting and sedimentation can be expressed as follow: the basin topography controlled by fault activity can control water dynamics; which in turn affect the transport and sedimentation of sediments. The corresponding analysis between structural styles and sand depositional types includes the following aspects: (1) in section, the corresponding between development of fault terraces and sand depositional types; (2) in plane, the relationship between faults' association and distributions of sand bodies. There are four types of terrace styles to be identified. They are Steep Slope Single Fault Terrace (SSSFT), Steep Slope Multiple Fault Terrace (SSMFT), Gentle Slope (GS) and Gentle Slope Multiple Fault Terrace (GSMFT), which also can be divided into six subtypes by the timing of the faults activities and the directions of their activity migrations (basinward and landward or marginward). They correspond to the following sand depositions such as alluvial fan, fan delta and turbidite fan etc.. The analysis of structure-sedimentation is a discussion on the rank Ⅲ sequence evolution under the condition of pulsing or episodic fault activities. It has been recognized four plane fault associations such as the comb, the broom, the fork and the fault-fold association as well as the corresponding sand distributions. Structural-sedimentary models above mentioned are significant for the deep oil and gas exploration when lacking of the drill data. It may reduce multiple resolutions in the interpretation of seismic-sedimentary facies and promote sand predictions through the constraints of the structural styles of the basin units. The structural-sedimentary pattern can be used as a geological model in oil and gas exploration in the rift basins.     

黄河三角洲埕岛地区近年海底冲淤规律及水深预测

通过对1976～1995年黄河三角洲地区埕岛海域的水深资料以及近年来实测的水深数据的分析,确定了黄河三角洲埕岛地区在1976年黄河改道清水沟后,从三角洲推进淤积期进入了海岸冲刷改造期。按冲刷速率、剖面坡度及其与季节变化的关系可分为快速冲刷阶段(1976～1980)、缓慢冲刷阶段(1981～1992)、以冲刷为主的冲淤调整阶段(1992年至今),海岸边带的后期冲刷改造受季节性影响也比较明显。在深度上基本以15m等深线为界,深水区淤积、浅水区冲刷。通过250m×250m网格化节点的实测水深变化的时间序列,采用二维平面的趋势面拟合方法,可以较好地对本海区的水深进行拟合并做出时间序列值的预测。     

寡糖对三黄鸡生产性能及免疫机能的影响

用96只1日龄广东三黄鸡,研究了饲料添加0.2%或0.3%的寡糖对肉鸡生产性能与免疫机能的影响。结果表明:饲料中添加0.2%的寡糖能显著提高11~30日龄肉鸡的增重、免疫器官指数及新城疫H I抗体滴度(P<0.05),血液白细胞吞噬率和血清IgG含量亦高于对照组,但组间差异不显著;添加0.2%或0.3%的寡糖能明显改善全期的饲料转化率(P<0.05)。     

秦皇岛市青龙县城工程场地动力特征及分区评价

工程场地动力分区评价（即地震影响小区划），是在工程场地地震危险性分析的基础上，根据场地岩土动力特征及地形地貌、地质构造条件等对地震动影响的反应程度，从而对不同类型场地的地震效应作出评价．其成果可做为建筑抗震设计、工程加固、震害预测与对策的制定及土地合理利用和总体规划布局的依据．本文以秦皇岛市青龙县城工程场地为例，进行了工程场地动力特征研究与分区评价及震害预测（即工程场地地震影响小区划）。     

四川旱涝震灾害的人工神经网络外推预测

选取旱、涝、震灾害之间的一步转移概率作为Ｂ－Ｐ人工神经网络训练样本的输入信息，建立了四川旱、涝、震的人工神经网络灾型预测模型。Ｂ－Ｐ网络模型应用于实例预测结果与用主分量分析法的趋势预测结果精度接近。     

移动Agent 在集群系统中的应用研究

从任务级的角度，在基于主／从模式的集群系统中引入了移动Agent技术，建立了基于移动Agent的并行计算模型。基于该模型，对移动Agent之间的通信接口、容错机制和负载平衡策略等问题进行了研究。     

Thermal conductivity modelling of terrestrial soil media—A comparative study

The paper describes prediction of thermal conductivity in terrestrial soil media. The model operates statistically by probability of occurrence for contacts between particular fractional compounds. It combines physical properties, specific to particular compounds, into one apparent conductance specific to the mixture. The concept of substituting grain compounds by hypothetical spheres is an essential tool to control porosity by the number of spheres, their radii and probability of contacts between them. The spheres are equal in radii. The spheres substitute compounds, regardless of the phase state. Control of particular phase states is possible by means of specific properties assigned to the spheres, at the input to the model. Performance of the model is successfully proved for many diverse terrestrial soil media in a wide range of bulk density, composition, water and water vapour content. Only the compounds of sand decline from the expected values and require introducing a correction to the thermal conductivity of sand grains. One possible explanation is that the thermal conductivity of sand is uncertain. Nevertheless, the model is useful and worth extending beyond terrestrial purposes.     

�ֽ�ؿ��˶�����ѧ����״̬������Ԥ�����о�

??????????????????????????о????40????????????????????α估GPS????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????￡????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????顢???塢???????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????????1??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????鵽????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????SOC??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????е?????????