热带气旋的云系结构对其移动影响的数值试验

应用上海台风研究所发展的东海热带气旋模式，根据热带云团的特点，设计了积云模型并叠加到台风中去，研究台风云系结构对其路径的影响。理想试验表明，只考虑温度场扰动，台风的移动偏向于密闭云区方向；而仅考虑湿度场扰动，台风的移动无固定的偏向。对9414号台风19940810的初始场，叠加积云模型的试验表明，预报路径较好地反映了其运动的特征。     

Fluctuations of peak energy and peak frequency of local wavelet energy spectrum for wind waves

Ｆｌｕｃｔｕａｔｉｏｎｓ　ｏｆ　ｐｅａｋ　ｅｎｅｒｇｙ　ａｎｄ　ｐｅａｋ　ｆｒｅｑｕｅｎｃｙ　ｏ　ｌｏｃａｌ　ｗａｖｅｌｅｔ　ｅｎｅｒｇｙ　ｓｐｅｃｔｒｕｍ　ｆｏｒ　ｗｉｎｄ　ｗａｖｅｓTXＦｌｕｃｔｕａｔｉｏｎｓｏｆｐｅａｋｅｎｅｒｇｙａｎｄｐｅａｋ...     

海浪周期关系的研究

本文利用现场观测数据、实验室风浪槽观测数据和由文氏谱及JONSWAP谱生成的模拟数据,研究了有效周期与谱平均周期、谱峰周期与谱平均周期以及有效周期与谱峰周期的关系,通过数据拟合给出了相应的关系式.研究发现,有效周期与由谱的负阶矩计算的平均周期之间的关系更加稳定,并且有效周期与负2阶矩计算的平均周期几乎相等,均代表了海浪主导波对海浪平均周期的贡献.     

波群作用于垂直桩柱的峰力统计性质

研究具有窄谱和Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ波高分布的波群对非线性桩柱系统作用力的统计性质。求得了桩桩的波浪峰力的各种特征值及其比值。指出这些数值不仅是阻力一惯性力参数ｂＨ的函数，也随着波群因子而变化。本文模式更具广泛性。文中给出了一系列计算图表，可从理论计算波群作用于桩柱的波浪峰力。     

黄河口及其邻近海域大型底栖动物的初步研究——(二)生物与沉积环境的关系

1985年5—6月对黄河口及其邻近海域的27个站进行了大型底栖动物的首航次定量调查。分别对18种环境因子和68个优势种和习见种所做的聚类分析显示了黄河口水下三角洲与邻近海域的某些差异,并联系沉积环境将所研究海域划分为四个区:黄河口水下三角洲、莱州湾、渤海中部和渤海湾东部。对大型底栖动物与沉积速率的关系也做了初步探讨。     

基于物方影像匹配的DEM聚类变化检测

提出了DEM的变化检测问题,采用了基于密度的聚类分析方法对匹配所得的初始变化区域进行分析,实现了地表高程变化区域的检测.     

Optimization of nonconventional wells under uncertainty using statistical proxies

The determination of the optimal type and placement of a nonconventional well in a heterogeneous reservoir represents a challenging optimization problem. This determination is significantly more complicated if uncertainty in the reservoir geology is included in the optimization. In this study, a genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the deployment of nonconventional wells. Geological uncertainty is accounted for by optimizing over multiple reservoir models (realizations) subject to a prescribed risk attitude. To reduce the excessive computational requirements of the base method, a new statistical proxy (which provides fast estimates of the objective function) based on cluster analysis is introduced into the optimization process. This proxy provides an estimate of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the scenario performance, which enables the quantification of proxy uncertainty. Knowledge of the proxy-based performance estimate in conjunction with the proxy CDF enables the systematic selection of the most appropriate scenarios for full simulation. Application of the overall method for the optimization of monobore and dual-lateral well placement demonstrates the performance of the hybrid optimization procedure. Specifically, it is shown that by simulating only 10% or 20% of the scenarios (as determined by application of the proxy), optimization results very close to those achieved by simulating all cases are obtained.     

高新技术产业集聚的城市化响应与反馈机制研究

高新技术产业集聚与城市化存在互动机制。一方面,高新技术产业结构效应影响了城市化动力机制,集聚效应则促进了城市外部经济的发展,使城市化表现出不同的模式特征和地域特征;另一方面,城市化促进了高新技术发展所需要素资源的聚集与流动,为高新技术产业集聚提供人力资本保障,还为高新技术企业提供创新的源动力。文章以苏州高新区的高新技术产业发展和城市化互动关系佐证了这一理论,并认为建立二者之间切实可行的调控模式是当务之急。     

Damage Survey of Water Supply Systems and Fragility Curve of PVC Water Pipelines in the Chi–Chi Taiwan Earthquake

Substantial damage to water supply systems, including water delivery pipelines, water treatment plants, reservoirs, and water storage tanks, was reported after the 1999 Chi–Chi Taiwan Earthquake. This paper first summarizes the damage survey and then presents the results of seismic fragility analysis for underground pipelines. Construction blueprints of the water delivery pipelines and repair work orders of 11 townships and cities in the disastrous area were digitized into a Geographical Information System (GIS) for analysis and assessment. With the aid of the GIS system, we found that PVC pipes made up 86% of water delivery pipelines while steel, cast iron, ductile iron, PE and others took the rest. Therefore, this paper focuses on the fragility analysis of PVC pipes. Three different methods were applied to derive the fragility relations between the PVC water pipes having nominal diameters (approximately inner diameters) greater than or equal to 65 mm and earthquake intensity parameters such as peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity. The results were then examined with those of other countries. The discrepancy between our results and the empirical equation used by HAZUS, an earthquake loss estimation software developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency was not significant.