新疆于田7.3级地震前瞻性预测回顾及其震后趋势分析

基于作者提出的孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法,作者曾对于田地震区未来震情进行了前瞻性预测分析,给出了该地震区强（大）震事件的震级、震中经纬度、震源深度以及临界Benioff应变值四要素预测结果.将上述四要素预测结果与2014年2月12日新疆于田M_S7.3级地震参数进行比较,表明：四要素预测值与实际值相差不大,对于田地震区的前瞻性中长期预测结果可信.此外,本文认为2008年新疆于田—策勒M_L6.6级震群事件是2014年新疆于田7.3级地震发震的直接导火索.     

一种顾及坡度因子与极值的地表面积计算法

针对局部地形的非线性变化与图形的极值信息对地表面积计算结果的影响,提出了一种顾及坡度因子与图形极值的地表面积计算法,分析了地表面积计算理论与误差。最后以中国西部具有典型地貌特征的两县数据为例进行试验分析。试验结果表明,该方法在一定程度上对局部地形逼近具有一定的改进,宏观上与规格格网交叉对角划线法具有一定的相似度。文中推导的三角网面积传递误差可初步表明考虑局部地形坡度因子与极值的地表面积计算结果可靠性更高。     

Population ecology of the snail Melampus bidentatus in changing salt marsh landscapes

We studied the population ecology of the snail Melampus bidentatus in relation to patch composition and landscape structure across several salt marsh systems in Connecticut, USA. These marshes have changed significantly over the past 40–50 years including loss of total area, increased areas of short Spartina alterniflora, and decreased areas and fragmentation of Spartina patens. These changes are consistent with tidal inundation patterns that indicate frequent flooding of high marsh areas. Melampus bidentatus densities were highly variable, both among different salt marsh systems and locations within specific marshes, but were generally similar among short Sp. alterniflora and Sp. patens patches within locations. Densities were lowest where the marsh was regularly inundated at high tide and only remnant Sp. patens patches remained. Almost no snails were found in bare patches. Areas that had large Sp. patens patches adjacent to short Sp. alterniflora supported the highest M. bidentatus densities. Population size‐structure varied significantly among patch types, with higher proportions of large individuals in short Sp. alterniflora and hummocked Sp. patens patches than in large and remnant Sp. patens patches. This was likely due to size‐selective predation and/or higher snail growth rates due to better food resource conditions in short Sp. alterniflora patches. Egg mass densities and the number of eggs per egg mass were highest in short Sp. alterniflora. Our results indicate that M. bidentatus is resilient to the level and patterns of salt marsh change evident at our study sites. Indeed, snail densities were significantly higher than reported in other field studies, suggesting that increased patch areas of short Sp. alterniflora and associated environmental conditions at our study sites may provide more favorable habitats than previously when marshes were dominated by extensive Sp. patens meadows. However, there may be threshold conditions that could overwhelm the ability of M. bidentatus to maintain itself within salt marsh systems where changes in hydrology, sedimentation and other factors lead to increased numbers of bare patches and ponds and loss of short Sp. alterniflora and Sp. patens. Studies of the responses of resident and transient fauna to salt marsh change are critically needed in order to better understand the implications for salt marsh ecosystem dynamics and services.     

Upwelling and surface cold patches in the Yellow Sea in summer: Effects of tidal mixing on the vertical circulation

A three-dimensional, prognostic, wave–tide–circulation coupled numerical model is developed to study the effects of tidal mixing on the summertime vertical circulation in the Yellow Sea (YS). The distribution and mechanisms of upwelling are investigated by numerical means. Validated by historical tide gauge data, satellite sea surface temperature (SST) data, and cruise observation data, the model shows satisfactory performances in reproducing the dominant tidal system and three-dimensional sea temperature structure. Model results suggest that strong tidal mixing plays an important role in the formation of the vertical circulation in the YS. The Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass (YSCWM) is fringed by typical tidal mixing fronts (TMFs), which separate the cold, stratified water at the offshore side from the warm, well-mixed, shallow water at the other side. Considerable baroclinic gradient across the TMF makes the frontal zone the spot where the most active vertical circulation occurs; a secondary circulation is triggered with a distinct upwelling branch occurring mainly on the mixed side of the front. The numerical model produces systematic upwelling belts surrounding the YSCWM, and the upwelling is essentially induced by the TMF over sloping topography. The relative importance of tidal mixing and wind forcing for upwelling is further examined in numerical experiments. The southerly wind enhances the upwelling off the western coasts, but its overall influences in the whole YS are less important than tidal mixing. As shown by both satellite data and numerical modeling, the summertime SST field in the YS is featured by the stable existence of several site-selective surface cold patches (SCPs), most of which scatter in the waters off convex coastlines. One of the SCPs is found off Subei Bank, and the others are located off the eastern tip of Shandong Peninsula and off the three tips of Korean Peninsula. Two processes give rise to the SCP: on the one hand, TMF-induced upwelling supplies cold water from the deep layer; on the other hand, tidal mixing itself can stir the bottom water upward and homogenize the water column vertically. In the waters around the tips of peninsula in the YS, the tidal currents are extraordinarily strong, which provides a possible explanation for the site-selectivity of the SCPs.     

Bed morphological changes around a finite patch of vegetation

For the appropriate management and restoration of rivers, isolated vegetation is often a practical means for improving stream habitat and ecology. The effect of a finite vegetation patch on flow and bed morphology in an open channel was investigated using laboratory experiments. The patch containing emergent and submerged vegetation was modeled using circular cylinders and located mid‐channel along a side wall. Several configurations of the patch and submergence ratio (i.e. water depth to the height of vegetation), and two flow conditions (i.e. below and above the sediment motion threshold) were considered. For flows below the sediment motion threshold, erosion occurred primarily on the opposite side of the patch and near the leading edge of the patch. The degree of scouring depth observed in both these regions was affected by the submergence ratio and it increased with the non‐dimensional flow blockage (i.e. the product of the patch density and width). In contrast, for flows above the sediment motion threshold, sediment accumulated within and around the patch due to a reduction in bed shear stress, which was strongly influenced by the flow blockage and the obstruction ratio (i.e. the ratio of patch width to channel width). The eroded area observed within the patch was consistent with the interior adjustment region where the deceleration and diversion of flow occurred through the patch. As the flow blockage increased or as the obstruction ratio decreased, the deposition rate within and behind the patch decreased. Furthermore, the deposition rate increased with an increase in the ratio of flow rate through the patch to total flow rate regardless of the submergence ratio. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索

通过建立孕震断层中锁固段的临界破坏-断裂力学与其蠕变过程联系,发现每个锁固段断裂点与加速应变能释放起点的累积Benioff应变之比,有着依赖于锁固段个数的指数律关系,指数函数的底数为1.48.在最后一个锁固段破坏以前,每一个锁固段的临界破坏-断裂过程表示一个中等强度或更大震级预震（preshock）的产生过程;在最后一个锁固段破坏之后,主震将发生.通过相当数量地震实例的回溯性预测分析,表明这一指数律能可靠地应用于中等强度预震和主震的预测.该方法能够在地震的中期、短期以及临震预报方面发挥作用.常数1.48很可能是表征中等强度或更大震级的预震和主震产生过程的普适常数.我们还对地震预报研究中某些有争议的问题进行了讨论,从理论和技术层面论证了本方法的适用性.     

农业生态系统中人类行为对植被多样性的影响:以中国封丘县为例(英文)

本文研究了社会经济因素对当地植被多样性的作用,并利用数学模型分析了中国封丘县农田景观中植被多样性的主要干扰因素。发现在小尺度上,植被多样性与景观组成和机构紧密相关这一观点没有证据支持。相比较而言,植被多样性受人为干扰的影响较大,而且与作物种类和经济来源紧密相关。这主要是因为中国农区经济行为拥有特殊格局,包括联产承包责任制以及农民外出务工流。提出了在政策环境的变化下如何维持当地植被多样性的现状。     

2015年4月25日尼泊尔M_w7.8地震孕育过程分析与震后趋势研判

基于作者提出的孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论及板间地震区划分原则,划分了伊斯兰堡—加德满都地震区.从孕育周期界定与主震事件判识角度,分析了该地震区大(巨)震事件的孕育过程,研判了其未来震情.结果表明:伊斯兰堡—加德满都地震区至少已经历三个完整的孕育周期,是一个Mw8.3~8.6地震危险区;2015年4月25日尼泊尔Mw7.8地震,是该区当前孕育周期第三锁固段损伤累积至峰值强度点时发生的一次标志性大震事件;2015年5月12日尼泊尔Mw7.3地震发生后,该地震区再次处于临界状态,将发生Mw8.0~8.2地震.     

川东南志留系石牛栏组生物礁沉积特征

本文通过露头、钻井及地震剖面等,对川东南志留系石牛栏组沉积相进行了详细解剖.石牛栏组生物礁在地震剖面上呈丘状体,杂乱反射特征明显.石牛栏组两期礁滩旋回在平面上的展布特征为:早期台地边缘礁滩相以沉积生屑滩为主,有少量点礁分布其中;晚期台地边缘礁滩相以沉积大量点礁为主.川东南石牛栏组生物礁的沉积模式为碳酸盐岩缓坡模式,生物礁为发育在碳酸盐岩缓坡上的点礁群.     

干旱区绿洲扩展过程中的景观变化分析

绿洲化过程中的景观变化和尺度效应是景观生态学研究的热点之一。针对这一目标以黑河中游张掖绿洲为研究区域,应用“3S”技术的缓冲分析方法,以绿洲标志景观类型农田、林地和湿地为核心,确定了不同时期绿洲范围并划分了老绿洲区和新增绿洲区。在此基础上,从景观组成动态和斑块连通度的尺度依赖特征两个方面分析了绿洲化过程中的景观变化机制和尺度效应。研究结果表明,绿洲化过程是以农田和建设用地斑块动态为主要特点。主要表现为：在不同的分区中,农田斑块以总面积和最大斑块指数增加为特点,说明农田斑块趋向集中连片分布;建设用地斑块总面积、斑块密度和最大斑块指数等3个指标都为增加,在景观上呈星点状扩张分布。老绿洲与新增绿洲的比较分析显示,新增绿洲的建设用地面积增加速率小于老绿洲,而农田面积的增加速率大于老绿洲。从景观斑块连通度的尺度依赖特点来看,在老绿洲中景观斑块类型的空间尺度依赖规律明显,但在时间尺度上的变化不显著;在新增绿洲内,林地、水域和建设用地的尺度依赖性比老绿洲高,其中林地、建设用地的空间变化规律明显,在时间尺度上无明显的差异;而水域斑块的尺度依赖性1985年高于2006年。