Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.     

Controls on porphyroblast size along a regional metamorphic field gradient

Garnet-bearing schists from the Waterville Formation of south-central Maine provide an opportunity to examine the factors governing porphyroblast size over a range of metamorphic grade. Three-dimensional sizes and locations for all garnet porphyroblasts were determined for three samples along the metamorphic field gradient spanning lowest garnet through sillimanite grade, using high-resolution X-ray computed tomography. Comparison of crystal size distributions to previous data sets obtained by stereological methods for the same samples reveals significant differences in mode, mean, and shape of the distributions. Quantitative textural analysis shows that the garnets in each rock crystallized in a diffusion-controlled nucleation and growth regime. In contrast to the typical observation of a correlation between porphyroblast size and position along a metamorphic field gradient, porphyroblast size of the lowest-grade specimen is intermediate between the high- and middle-grade specimens’ sizes. Mean porphyroblast size does not correlate with peak temperatures from garnet-biotite Fe-Mg exchange thermometry, nor is post-crystallization annealing (Ostwald Ripening) required to produce the observed textures, as was previously proposed for these rocks. Robust pseudosection calculations fail to reproduce the observed garnet core compositions for two specimens, suggesting that these calc-pelites experienced metasomatism. For each of these two specimens, Monte Carlo calculations suggest potential pre-metasomatism bulk compositions that replicate garnet core compositions. Pseudosection analyses allow the estimation of the critical temperatures for garnet growth: ∼481, ∼477, and ∼485°C for the lowest-garnet-zone, middle-garnet-zone, and sillimanite-zone specimens, respectively. Porphyroblast size appears to be determined in this case by a combination of the heating rate during garnet crystallization, the critical temperature for the garnet-forming reaction and the kinetics of nucleation. Numerical simulations of thermally accelerated, diffusion-controlled nucleation, and growth for the three samples closely match measured crystal size distributions. These observations and simulations suggest that previous hypotheses linking the garnet size primarily to the temperature at the onset of porphyroblast nucleation can only partially explain the observed textures. Also important in determining porphyroblast size are the heating rate and the distribution of favorable nucleation sites.     

Framing in geographical analysis of environmental conflicts: Theory, methodology and three case studies

When applied to environmental concerns, framing offers a rigorous conceptual and analytic approach with potentially practical significance for dealing with complex issues relevant to geography. The purpose of this article is to introduce framing concepts, typology and modes of analysis to address issues which geographers commonly treat: disputes over land ownership and uses, competition for water resources, cultural clashes over control of territory and resources and the impact of spatial patterns and structures when siting noxious sites. Framing analysis is applied to three cases of environmental conflict in Israel and, more generally, for understanding conflicts revolving around the management of human habitats in relation to the physical environment.     

Correlation of the Jurassic-Cretaceous siliceous-volcanogenic sediments in northwestern surroundings of the Pacific (Koryak Upland)

In distribution areas of the Pekul’neiveem and Chirynai formations customary distinguishable in the Koryak Upland, complicated tectonostratigraphic units are composed of alternating thrust sheets of different lithologic composition and age, which are juxtaposed because of widespread thrust faulting, as is proved by the radiolarian analysis. Nineteen radiolarian assemblages of different age are first established here in the Lower Jurassic-Hauterivian succession of siliceous-volcanogenic sediments. In the Lower Jurassic interval, the lower and upper Hettangian, lower and upper Sinemurian, and Pliensbachian beds are recognized. Paleontological characterization is also presented for the Aalenian (or Toarcian?-Aalenian), upper Bajocian, lower and upper Bathonian, and Callovian beds of the Middle Jurassic. Within the Upper Jurassic, the Oxfordian-early Kimmeridgian, late Kimmeridgian-early Tithonian, Tithonian, and late Tithonian-early Berriasian radiolarian assemblages are distinguished. The late Berriasian-early Valanginian, middle-late Valanginian, and Hauterivian radiolarian assemblages are first recognized or compositionally revised. Radiolarians and lithofacies data are used to correlate the tectonostratigraphic units and individualize the jasper-alkali basaltic (lower Hettangian), chert-terrigenous (Hettangian-Sinemurian), jasper-cherty (Pliensbachian-Aalenian), jasper (Bajocian-Hauterivian), jasper-basaltic (upper Bajocian-Valanginian), Fe-Ti basaltic (upper Bajocian-Bathonian), tuffitejasper-basaltic (Bathonian-Hauterivian), and terrigenous-volcanogenic (Bajocian-Valanginian) sequences. The correlation results are extrapolated into other continental areas flanking the Pacific, i.e., to the western Kamchatka, northern and northwestern coastal areas of the Sea of Okhotsk, where the analogous radiolarian assemblages are characteristic of comparable allochthonous units of terrigenous-siliceous-volcanogenic sediments.     

Feasibility of pre-earthquake strengthening of buildings based on cost-benefit and life-cycle cost analysis, with the aid of fragility curves

There are two fundamental questions this article aims to deal with. First, whether a pre-earthquake strengthening of a large and heterogeneous building stock (the emphasis here is on building types common in S. Europe), is economically feasible or not, and second what is the optimal retrofit level for mitigating the seismic risk. To this purpose contemporary decision making tools, namely cost-benefit and life-cycle cost analyses, are tailored to the needs of the present study, and implemented with the aid of an ad-hoc developed new software application (COBE06). A method for estimating the reduction in structural vulnerability due to retrofit is proposed, as well as a methodology to determine the optimum retrofit level using the fragility curve approach. Finally, the proposed methodology is used in a pilot application that concerns the city of Thessaloniki, and results are drawn for the feasibility of strengthening the reinforced concrete building stock in this city.     

Impact of lightning on organic matter-rich soils: influence of soil grain size and organic matter content on underground fires

A detailed study was carried out on a piece of land that had been struck by lightning during the violent rainstorm that raged over the Island of S?o Miguel (Azores Archipelago) in late October 2006. Temperature and gas measurements (CO₂, CO, H₂S and CH₄) were performed in four study trenches, dug in an area of ∼3 m², where an underground fire had been initiated by the impact with a lightning stroke, followed by the emission of a column of gases and smoke. The soil under study was originally a well-pedogenized about 80 cm thick bed, made of volcanic clayey to silty tephra fallouts and contained 5.5–9.7% of organic matter. The underground fire was monitored for one week and revealed a peak release of 404 ppm CO and 3.4% CO₂ originating from a horizon located about 45 cm under the soil surface. Measurements of temperature, performed one week after the impact, indicated a maximum value of 326°C inside the soil, while 516.5°C were measured on the surface of a lava block interred about 20 cm under the surface. Subsequently, a stratigraphic and sedimentologic study proved the role of the grain-size of the soil and of the organic matter content of the different horizons of the impact area, in determining the ratio between anoxic/oxidised combustion conditions and in the progress of the process itself. It was also noticed that combustion was not total all over in the soil bed and that the process had slightly migrated toward SW during the observation period. The combustion process went on for about ten days, in spite of several other violent rainstorms, until it was artificially extinguished through the excavations made to obtain study trenches. This particular circumstance evidenced the potential natural hazard represented by this kind of atmospheric event, especially in a land where the volcanic nature of the soil may easily mislead inexperienced observers and, consequently, delay proper action.     

Si diffusion in zircon

Self-diffusion of Si under anhydrous conditions at 1 atm has been measured in natural zircon. The source of diffusant for experiments was a mixture of ZrO₂ and ³⁰Si-enriched SiO₂ in 1:1 molar proportions; experiments were run in crimped Pt capsules in 1-atm furnaces. ³⁰Si profiles were measured with both Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS) and nuclear reaction analysis with the resonant nuclear reaction ³⁰Si(p,γ)³¹P. For Si diffusion normal to c over the temperature range 1,350–1,550°C, we obtain an Arrhenius relation D = 5.8 exp(−702 ± 54 kJ mol⁻¹/RT) m² s⁻¹ for the NRA measurements, which agrees within uncertainty with an Arrhenius relation determined from the RBS measurements [62 exp(−738 ± 61 kJ mol⁻¹/RT) m² s⁻¹]. Diffusion of Si parallel to c appears slightly faster, but agrees within experimental uncertainty at most temperatures with diffusivities for Si normal to c. Diffusion of Si in zircon is similar to that of Ti, but about an order of magnitude faster than diffusion of Hf and two orders of magnitude faster than diffusion of U and Th. Si diffusion is, however, many orders of magnitude slower than oxygen diffusion under both dry and hydrothermal conditions, with the difference increasing with decreasing temperature because of the larger activation energy for Si diffusion. If we consider Hf as a proxy for Zr, given its similar charge and size, we can rank the diffusivities of the major constituents in zircon as follows: D _Zr < D _Si << D _{O, dry} < D _{O, ‘wet’}.     

Structural investigation of the synthetic CaAn(PO4)2 (An = Th and Np) cheralite-like phosphates

The crystallographic structures of the synthetic cheralite, CaTh(PO₄)₂, and its homolog CaNp(PO₄)₂ have been investigated by X-ray diffraction at room temperature. Rietveld analyses showed that both compounds crystallize in the monoclinic system and are isostructural to monazite LnPO₄ (Ln = La to Gd). The space group is P2₁/n (I.T. = 14) with Z = 2. The refined lattice parameters of CaTh(PO₄)₂ are a = 6.7085(8) Å, b = 6.9160(6) Å, c = 6.4152(6) Å, and β = 103.71(1)° with best fit parameters R _wp = 4.87%, R _p = 3.69% and R _B = 3.99%. For CaNp(PO₄)₂, we obtained a = 6.6509(5) Å, b = 6.8390(3) Å, c = 6.3537(8) Å, and β = 104.12(6)° and R _wp = 6.74%, R _p = 5.23%, and R _B = 6.05%. The results indicate significant distortions of bond length and angles of the PO₄ tetrahedra in CaTh(PO₄)₂ and to a lesser extent in CaNp(PO₄)₂. The structural distortions were confirmed by Raman spectroscopy of CaTh(PO₄)₂. A comparison with the isostructural compounds LnPO₄ (Ln = Ce and Sm) confirmed that the substitution of the large rare earth trivalent cations with Ca²⁺ and Th⁴⁺ introduces a distortion of the PO₄ tetrahedra.     

Optical spectrum based measurement of flotation slurry contents

Monitoring and control of a flotation circuit is mainly based on the information gained by assaying the process slurry lines. In flotation plants, usually an X-ray fluorescence analyzer is used to obtain the on-line assays. This article introduces the visual and near-infrared reflectance spectroscopic analysis of the process slurries as a supplementary method which complements the on-line assay information available from an X-ray fluorescence analyzer. It is shown that the spectral information can be used to accurately predict the element contents in the slurry in between successive XRF analyses. Since the spectral measurements can be taken with high frequency as opposed to the sparse X-ray fluorescence analysis, a practically continuous on-line estimate of the slurry contents is reached. These estimates can be used in the plant control to improve the overall performance of the circuits and to yield also economical savings. Additionally, the frequent monitoring of the grades can provide means to eliminate rapid disturbances in the circuits, thus improving the stability of the process.     

The spatial implications of the functional proximity deriving from air passenger flows between European metropolitan urban regions

Until recently the traditional spatial configuration of the European geography was based upon the core-periphery model. The ‘pentagon’, broadly defined as lying between London, Paris, Milan, Munich and Hamburg, was seen as the core area characterised by having the highest concentration of economic development in the European Union (EU), with the remainder of the European territory viewed as peripheral, albeit to varying degrees. In a number of cases such peripheral areas equated with clear regional disparities. The elaboration of the European Spatial Development Perspective (ESDP) (CEC, European spatial development perspective, towards balanced and sustainable development in the territory of the European Union, 1999) challenged this core-periphery model. European spatial planning policies, aimed at encouraging social and economic, and with ever increasing importance, territorial cohesion, seek amongst other aspects to encourage the development of a balanced and polycentric urban system. This paper adopts a network analysis approach to the analysis of air passenger flows between some 28 principal European metropolitan urban regions. The evaluation of these flows contributes to an enhanced comprehension of the spatial dynamics of the European metropolitan territory which goes beyond that deriving from the more standard analyses of the individual components of the urban system. Several indicators are used, deriving from gravitational modelling techniques, to analyse the complexity of the air passenger flows. A multidimensional scaling (MDS) technique is introduced in order to interpret and visualise the resulting spatial configuration and positioning of the different metropolitan centres within the conceptual European ‘space of air passenger flows’, thereby contrasting with the more traditional map-based geographical image of Europe, based upon Cartesian coordinates.