我国省域工业主导产业的遴选与发展

工业主导产业在国民经济发展中起着决定性和指向性的作用。主导产业的选择是经济发展阶段的重要课题。依据6个量化指标,从4个维度对"十一五"期间主导产业进行遴选,发现以能源及相关产业为代表的重化工业是各省的重点,高新技术产业成为主导产业的省份较少,劳动密集型产业依然是东部发达省市的重点,预期中的产业转移并未实现;以行业为变量对各省份的主导产业进行聚类分析,可将31个省份划分为5类,反映了我国各省份主导产业布局特点;在此基础上,依据产业生命周期理论和各地区"十二五"发展趋势,提出了相应的对策建议。     

基于图像熵的卫星云图分类方法

介绍一种基于图像熵和自动分割技术的卫星云图阂值分类方法,重点解决普通阈值法中阈值不确定性的问题。采用自动分割方法进行云图的划分,结合图像纹理特征信息,通过统计分析来确定具体的阈值。将该方法应用于2007年7月上旬淮河流域的暴雨过程,并与美国GOES卫星分层阈值进行类比,分析了两种阈值与地面实况降水间的关系。结果表明,该方法能够在卫星估算降水过程中增强对不同类型降水的识别能力,是一种有效的卫星云图分类方法。     

江淮梅雨的时空变化特征

利用江淮地区37站1954--2001年48a梅雨特征量资料,采用谐波分析、EOF和最大熵谱分析等方法讨论了江淮梅雨的时空变化特征。结果表明：江淮梅雨时空分布不均,梅雨特征量存在显著的年际一年代际变化特征,梅雨特征量年代际变化之间存在明显的负相关或正相关关系;梅雨特征量存在显著不同的多时间尺度振荡周期和长期演变趋势且江淮地区雨季也呈不同的年际和年代际变化特征。     

上海地区最高气温资料的恢复试验

对上海最高气温1924～2001年期间的缺测资料进行了恢复试验,以期通过该个例的研究,探讨我国台站历史资料集中缺测或中断序列的恢复、插补的一般方法.选取使用上海气象观测站的相邻若干台站的最高气温资料,分别用回归分析法、判别分析法和偏最小二乘法,对上海站相应期间缺测资料进行逐年逐月的恢复,并利用交叉检验的均方误差作为恢复效果的评判.结果发现对缺测资料恢复的总效果以偏最小二乘法为最好,因此选用该方法作为资料恢复的主要方法.恢复过程为每次仅恢复某月份、某测站、某年份的缺测资料,恢复后的估计值作为观测值使用,再进行其它缺测资料恢复的新资料集,如此反复地进行,以近期资料开始,逐步向前期资料延拓.这样做的目的是为了使得和后续的观测资料直接连接.     

COMPRESSION OF nth-ORDER DATA ARRAYS BY B-SPLINES.PART 1:THEORY

For efficient handling of very large data arrays,pretreatment by compression is mandatory.In the presentpaper B-spline methods are described as good candidates for such data array compression.Themathematical relation between the maximum entropy method for compression of data tables andthe B-spline of zeroth degree is described together with the generalization of B-spline compression tonth-order data array tables in matrix and tensor algebra.     

西藏班公湖岛弧带含硫化镍超基性岩的源区性质与基底背景

青藏高原班公湖一怒江成矿带上的超基性岩型硫化镍矿化是近年来在西藏地区发现的矿化新类型.文章根据成矿带西段班公湖地区含镍超基性岩体的岩石地球化学和Sr、Pb同位素分析结果,论述了含镍超基性岩浆的源区性质及生成条件,并根据锆石U-Pb LA-ICP-MS年龄测定结果,探讨了藏西北地区的基底背景.研究发现,班公湖地区的含镍超基性岩体以富集大离子不相容元素Rb、Th、U、Sr、Pb,亏损Ba、K为特点,高场强元素亏损Nb、Ti,富集Ta;稀士元素相对球粒陨石亏损强烈,但轻稀土元素相对富集.这些特点一致反映出含矿岩浆产生于受俯冲沉积物熔体交代的富集型岩石圈地幔源区.岩浆的生成深度较浅,为尖晶石二辉橄榄岩相,源区部分熔融程度较低,大体在10%左右.岩石中集中出现一批24.79亿年的残留锆石年龄,标志着当时班公湖中特斯洋盆沉积物的物源区较为单一,主要来自太古代末-元古代初的古老基底,并且推测太古代与元古代之交(25亿年)有可能是藏西北的一个古陆壳快速生长期.     

Maximum entropy method: an unconventional approach to explore observables related to the electron density in phengites

The maximum entropy method (MEM) is used here to get an insight into the electron density [ρ(r)] of phengites 2M ₁ and 3T, paying special attention to the M1-formally empty site and charge distribution. Room temperature single crystal X-ray diffraction data have been used as experimental input for MEM. The results obtained by MEM have been compared with those from conventional structure refinement which, in turn, has provided the prior-electron density to start the entropy maximization process. MEM reveals a comparatively non-committal approach, able to produce information related to the M1-site fractional occupancy, and yields results consistent with those from the difference Fourier synthesis, but free of the uncertainties due to the abrupt truncation of the series. The charge distribution is investigated by means of the notion of ‘‘site basin’’, i.e., those site-centered volumes delimited by a surface such as ∇ρ·n = 0. In particular, we observe: (1) the overall partitioning of the basin total charge between cation and anion sites, and the interlayer site charge seems to depend on sample composition, and (2) the apical-oxygen plane total basin charge and hydroxyl basin charge are presumably related to the polytype. The MEM-determined electron density does not allow full exploration of the critical points for very complex structures as micas, insofar as conventional room temperature experimental diffraction data are used.     

在役公路梁式桥综合震害等级预测研究

为客观预测在役公路梁式桥综合震害状况,考虑在役桥梁在运营期存在的病害问题,从压力和承压两方面建立在役公路梁式桥综合震害预测评价指标体系。以桥梁作为承灾体,建立在役公路梁式桥综合震害物元可拓模型,运用熵权法进行赋权,确定桥梁的综合震害状况。以一座在役梁式桥为例,运用上述模型确定算例的综合震害状况。研究结果表明,该桥的综合震害等级为Ⅲ级,破坏等级中等,且根据结果分析影响桥梁震害程度的主要影响因素;该模型通过对多个指标关联系数的综合分析来评价在役梁式桥的综合震害等级,极大地提高了该模型评估的准确率及可靠性,为桥梁震害等级的预测提供一定的参考,对提升桥梁综合抗震能力具有积极意义。     

Ubiquitous post-peak zircon in an eclogite from the Kumdy-Kol,Kokchetav UHP-HP Massif (Kazakhstan): Significance of exhumation-related zircon growth and modification in continental-subduction settings

U–Pb geochronological, trace-element and Lu–Hf isotopic studies have been made on zircons from ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) mafic eclogite from the Kumdy-Kol area, one of the diamond-facies domains of the Kokchetav Massif (northern Kazakhstan). The peak eclogitic assemblage equilibrated at > 900 °C, whereas the bulk sample composition displays light rare-earth element (LREE) and Th depletion evident of partial melting. Zircons from the eclogite are represented by exclusively newly formed metamorphic grains and have U–Pb age spread over 533–459 Ma, thus ranging from the time of peak subduction burial to that of the late post-orogenic collapse. The major zircon group with concordant age estimates have a concordia age of 508.1 ±4.4 Ma, which corresponds to exhumation of the eclogite-bearing UHP crustal slice to granulite- or amphibolite-facies depths. This may indicate potentially incoherent exhumation of different crustal blocks within a single Kumdy-Kol UHP domain. Model Hf isotopic characteristics of zircons (ε_Hf(t) +1.5 to +7.8, Neoproterozoic model Hf ages of 1.02–0.79 Ga) closely resemble the whole-rock values of the Kumdy-Kol eclogites and likely reflect in situ derivation of HFSE source for newly formed grains. The ages coupled with geochemical systematics of zircons confirm that predominantly late zircon growth occurred in Th–LREE-depleted eclogitic assemblage, that experienced incipient melting and monazite dissolution in melt at granulite-facies depths, followed by amphibolite-facies rehydration during late-stage exhumation-related retrogression.     

海洋底栖古群落演替模式--以华蓥山茅口组腕足动物群落为例

以热力学理论和信息熵原理为基础,分析了古群落的热力学本质和信息熵的内涵,指出古群落演替可分为4个阶段:开始阶段、发展阶段、顶极阶段和衰退阶段.不同阶段具有明显不同的信息量(信息熵),信息熵为最大值阶段也就是古群落最复杂、最无序的顶极阶段.为此,可利用这一特性对地层进行高精度的划分和对比.经研究,初步总结出5条判别古群落演替不同阶段的基本原则:①地层层序率原则;②生物演进原则;③信息熵最大原则;④物种多样性指数呈对数正态分布原则;⑤古群落取代原则.在以川东华蓥山地区茅口期腕足动物群落演替分析的实例中,选择了4个统计量作为计算反映古群落结构特征信息熵的参数,即物种多样性指数(d)、物种个体平均大小(g)、物种生物量(s)及物种平均凸度(t),对两个古群落不同演替阶段的信息熵进行了计算和讨论,指出本地区茅口组地层分为上下两段,下段还可以分为3个亚段.同时发现在没有突发事件的影响下,古群落演替以衰退阶段历时最长,大约是顶极阶段的6～8倍.