River management response to multi-decade changes in timing of reservoir inflows,Columbia River Basin,USA

Around the world, long-term changes in the timing and magnitude of streamflow are testing the ability of large managed water resource systems constructed in the 20th century to continue to meet objectives in the 21st century. Streamflow records for unregulated rivers upstream of reservoirs can be combined with records downstream of reservoirs using a paired-watershed framework and concepts of water resource system performance to assess how reservoir management has responded to long-term change. Using publicly available data, this study quantified how the intra-annual timing of inflows and outflows of 25 major reservoirs has shifted, how management has responded, and how this has influenced reliability and vulnerability of the water resource system in the 668,000 km² Columbia River basin from 1950 to 2012. Reservoir inflows increased slightly in early spring and declined in late spring to early fall, but reservoir outflows increased in late summer from 1950 to 2012. Average inflows to reservoirs in the low flow period exceeded outflows in the1950s, but inflows are now less than outflows. Reservoirs have increased hedging, that is, they have stored more water during the spring, in order to meet the widening gap between inflows and outflows during the summer low flow period. For a given level of reliability (the fraction of time flow targets were met), vulnerability (the maximum departure from the flow target) was greater during periods with lower than average inflows. Thus, the water management system in this large river basin has adjusted to multi-decade trends of declining inflows, but vulnerability, that is, the potential for excess releases in spring and shortfalls in summer, has increased. This study demonstrates the value of combining publicly available historical data on streamflow with concepts from paired-watershed analyses and metrics of water resource performance to detect, evaluate, and manage water resource systems in large river basins.     

黔桂地区最近16万年高分辨率石笋记录的气候事件

全球变化研究是当今地球科学最前沿的课题。要了解地球系统长期演变的动力过程 ,预测未来气候变化 ,就必须首先研究和重建最后 2次冰期高分辨率的气候变化历史。本项研究选择中国南方广西、贵州地区几个大型石笋 ,在沉积学研究的基础上 ,采用碳氧稳定同位素、α谱U系法、TIMSU系 (2 3 0 Th/2 3 4U)法等方法提取高分辨率的气候记录。本区 16万年来石笋气候记录可以与海洋记录的16阶段进行对比。末次冰期的起始点及终止点通过石笋记录分别确定为 (130 1± 1 0 )kaB P 及(11 2± 0 1)kaB P ,其准确性大大高于目前其它记录。所揭示的Heinrich型气候波动事件 ,其时限分别为 :H114～ 15kaB P ,H2 2 1～ 2 3kaB P ,H32 5～ 2 7kaB P ,H44 1～ 42kaB P ,另外在 35～ 37kaB P 也存在振幅很大的冷事件 ,与北大西洋沉积及格陵兰冰芯记录可以逐一对比。长周期的气候旋回以及短期的突变事件 ,在时限上所谓存在几千年以上滞后或超前 ,可能是测试方法和测试对象的不同带来的差错 (包括测试误差 ) ;具有全球意义的一些气候突变事件 ,在发生的时间上可能都具有同时性。这种短期突变事件发生的动力机制问题 ,可能也是目前人类尚未识别出来的天文因素的驱动所致。     

Oxygen Isotope Records of Core 8KL of the South China Sea and Sea - level Change

Based on a comparison between the oxygen isotope records of benthic and plank tonic foraminifers from core 8KL of the South China Sea and sea-level change records derived from the Huon Peninsula, New Guinea, it is found that both records are very similar from 72 K a B.P. to the present, especially for the benthic oxygen isotope record. The linear regression shows that δ18O changes (0.9995‰ for benthic foraminifers and 1.022‰ for planktonic foraminifers) are equal to 100 m in sea-level fluctuation. After making temperature correction in the δ18O record of benthic foraminifers from 72 to 120 Ka B.P., the curve of sea-level oscillation of the South China Sea since 186 Ka B.P. has been reconstructed. The lowermost sea - level that occurred in the last glacial maximum and oxygen isotope stage 6 is approximately - 130 m.     

孢粉记录揭示的2万年以来若尔盖地区的气候变化

若尔盖黑河牧场ＤＣ剖面的孢粉记录表明，末次冰期晚阶段若尔盖原高的气候表现为不稳定性，即冷暖变化频繁，其基本变化与全球一致，相对暖的阶段发生在２０－１８ＫａＢＰ，１６－１５ＫａＢＰ和１３－１１．２ＫａＢＰ；相对冷的阶段在１８－１６ＫａＢＰ，１５－１４ＫａＢＰ和１１．２－１０．２ＫａＢＰ。其中末次冰期最盛期发生于１８－１６ＫａＢＰ；１１．２－１０．２ＫａＢＰ的降温可对应于ＹｏｕｎｇｅｒＤｒｙａｓ事件。     

东北大陆文史记载有感地震

本文在综台分析和整理地震史料的基础上,对东北大陆文史记载的150次有感地震做了研究,估定了其参考性的基本参数。     

Recent sedimentary records from the Arabian Sea

An attempt is made to understand the redox conditions that prevailed in the north eastern continental margins of the Arabian Sea and in the nearby deep water regions during the past few centuries using short undisturbed sediment cores. The geochronology is accomplished using²¹⁰Pb excess method and the proxy indicators chosen for productivity and associated redox changes are CaCO₃, organic matter (OM), Mn and U along with major elements Fe and Al. Such changes in principle are related to high productivity in the overlying waters which in turn depend on monsoonal intensity that causes upwelling responsible for increase in productivity. Alongwith the published data on gravity cores from the same region, our measurements suggest the following: At ∼ 300 m water depth, south of 21°N, the sediment-water interface at depths of ∼ 300 m had been anoxic during the time span represented by the presently studied cores for approximately ∼ 700y as evidenced by low Mn/Al (< 0.7 × 10⁻²) and high U/Al (> 10⁻⁴) weight ratios. In some adjacent deeper regions, however, the environment turned oxic around ∼ 200 y BP. Whereas both Mn and Ra were lost to the overlying waters in the anoxic regions (depth ∼340m), the Mn that diffused from deeper sections appears to have mineralized at the sediment-water-interface. Studies of this type on long undisturbed cores from the margins of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, involving several proxies and geochronology by more than one method are needed to understand short term environmental (and monsoonal intensity) changes of the recent past with high resolution.     

S-wave velocity structures of sediments estimated from array microtremor records and site responses in the near-fault region of the 1999 Chi-Chi,Taiwan earthquake

The 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake, M_W = 7.6, caused severe damage in the near-fault region of the earthquake. In order to evaluate site effects in the near-field strong motions we estimate S-wave velocity structures of sediments at four sites using array records of microtremors. We also recalculated S-wave velocity structures at other four sites previously reported. To show the validity of the estimated S-wave velocity structures we separate empirical site responses from aftershock records using the generalized inversion method and show the agreement between empirical and theoretical site responses. We also show an observed fact that suggests soil nonlinearity during the Chi-Chi earthquake by comparing horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVRs) for main shock records with HVRs for aftershock records. Then we calculate one-dimensional equivalent-linear site responses using the estimated S-wave velocity structures and the main shock records observed on the surface. It is found that site amplification due to thick (about 6 km) sediments is one of the important factors for explaining the long-period velocity pulses of about 5 to 10 sec observed at sites in the footwall during the Chi-Chi earthquake. It is also found that the theoretical site responses of shallow soft sediments at sites that sustained severe damage in the hanging wall shows significant amplification around 1 sec. As the amplitude of velocity pulses with period around 1 sec is most critical in causing damage to ordinary buildings of moderate heights, our results suggest that the 1-sec period velocity pulses, amplified by the site response of shallow sediments should contribute to the severe damage during the Chi-Chi earthquake.