Seismic hazard assessment using the theory of records

This article is a review of some basic results for analysis of records. First, the general methods appropriate for seismic hazard are discussed. Then, in view of the frequency-magnitude law of Gutenberg and Richter, some results relevant for hazard assessment related to earthquakes are presented. The discussion is concluded with an example of application and comparison with classical methods.     

中国历史文献档案中的古环境记录

我国的历史文献记录是古气候、古环境信息的重要来源,对古全球变化（PAGES）研究计划的目标时段——近2000年（人文记录和自然记录并存的时段）来说,尤其具有重要的科学价值。介绍了我国古文献中的古气候、古环境记录的概况和各项记录如水、旱、雨、雪等的数量统计,综述了这些记录被用于重建定量的气候序列、绘制历史气候复原图、编制古环境事件年表、获取高分辨率的古气候信息诸方面的主要进展。     

Understanding the bias of call detail records in human mobility research

ABSTRACT

In recent years, call detail records (CDRs) have been widely used in human mobility research. Although CDRs are originally collected for billing purposes, the vast amount of digital footprints generated by calling and texting activities provide useful insights into population movement. However, can we fully trust CDRs given the uneven distribution of people’s phone communication activities in space and time? In this article, we investigate this issue using a mobile phone location dataset collected from over one million subscribers in Shanghai, China. It includes CDRs (~27%) plus other cellphone-related logs (e.g., tower pings, cellular handovers) generated in a workday. We extract all CDRs into a separate dataset in order to compare human mobility patterns derived from CDRs vs. from the complete dataset. From an individual perspective, the effectiveness of CDRs in estimating three frequently used mobility indicators is evaluated. We find that CDRs tend to underestimate the total travel distance and the movement entropy, while they can provide a good estimate to the radius of gyration. In addition, we observe that the level of deviation is related to the ratio of CDRs in an individual’s trajectory. From a collective perspective, we compare the outcomes of these two datasets in terms of the distance decay effect and urban community detection. The major differences are closely related to the habit of mobile phone usage in space and time. We believe that the event-triggered nature of CDRs does introduce a certain degree of bias in human mobility research and we suggest that researchers use caution to interpret results derived from CDR data.     

皮山6.5级地震前地表MODIS热红外异常与气象台站记录对比

利用2015年皮山6.5级地震前半年的MODIS影像,通过劈窗算法对震中周边地表温度进行反演,通过对比地表反演温度和震中周边气象台站气象记录,研究发现震中附近在震前80 d和15 d左右出现明显的热异常,但在震前1个月左右存在短暂的温度低异常现象。另外,根据近22年的气象记录,震中及周边在震前半年气温明显偏高,这种气象异常或可视为地震前兆。     

Mann-Whitney U非参数检验方法及其在冰心气候学研究中的应用

介绍了最强的非参数检验之一Mann－WhitneyU非参数检验方法及其在冰心气候学研究中的应用。由于冰心气候环境记录具有分辨率高、保真性好和所记录的气候环境信息量大等优声、,因此将该非参数检验方法用于冰心气候学,可以帮助我们进行一些极端事件的研究,并对厄尔尼诺年古里雅冰心中所记录的降水量及δ18O的变化进行检验。     

方志和区域研究

我国方志是反映各种区域时空实体的文化载体。方志的演化可分先秦至西汉。东汉至南宋和南宋以后三个时期。与西方方志比较中国方志具有重区内、轻区间;重人文,轻自然和含“天—地—人”的原始系统论等特点。新方志可有资料性、知识性和研究性三种类型。创新方志应该从“方志乃一方全史”说中解脱出来,加强区域研究。     

River management response to multi-decade changes in timing of reservoir inflows,Columbia River Basin,USA

Around the world, long-term changes in the timing and magnitude of streamflow are testing the ability of large managed water resource systems constructed in the 20th century to continue to meet objectives in the 21st century. Streamflow records for unregulated rivers upstream of reservoirs can be combined with records downstream of reservoirs using a paired-watershed framework and concepts of water resource system performance to assess how reservoir management has responded to long-term change. Using publicly available data, this study quantified how the intra-annual timing of inflows and outflows of 25 major reservoirs has shifted, how management has responded, and how this has influenced reliability and vulnerability of the water resource system in the 668,000 km² Columbia River basin from 1950 to 2012. Reservoir inflows increased slightly in early spring and declined in late spring to early fall, but reservoir outflows increased in late summer from 1950 to 2012. Average inflows to reservoirs in the low flow period exceeded outflows in the1950s, but inflows are now less than outflows. Reservoirs have increased hedging, that is, they have stored more water during the spring, in order to meet the widening gap between inflows and outflows during the summer low flow period. For a given level of reliability (the fraction of time flow targets were met), vulnerability (the maximum departure from the flow target) was greater during periods with lower than average inflows. Thus, the water management system in this large river basin has adjusted to multi-decade trends of declining inflows, but vulnerability, that is, the potential for excess releases in spring and shortfalls in summer, has increased. This study demonstrates the value of combining publicly available historical data on streamflow with concepts from paired-watershed analyses and metrics of water resource performance to detect, evaluate, and manage water resource systems in large river basins.     

黔桂地区最近16万年高分辨率石笋记录的气候事件

全球变化研究是当今地球科学最前沿的课题。要了解地球系统长期演变的动力过程 ,预测未来气候变化 ,就必须首先研究和重建最后 2次冰期高分辨率的气候变化历史。本项研究选择中国南方广西、贵州地区几个大型石笋 ,在沉积学研究的基础上 ,采用碳氧稳定同位素、α谱U系法、TIMSU系 (2 3 0 Th/2 3 4U)法等方法提取高分辨率的气候记录。本区 16万年来石笋气候记录可以与海洋记录的16阶段进行对比。末次冰期的起始点及终止点通过石笋记录分别确定为 (130 1± 1 0 )kaB P 及(11 2± 0 1)kaB P ,其准确性大大高于目前其它记录。所揭示的Heinrich型气候波动事件 ,其时限分别为 :H114～ 15kaB P ,H2 2 1～ 2 3kaB P ,H32 5～ 2 7kaB P ,H44 1～ 42kaB P ,另外在 35～ 37kaB P 也存在振幅很大的冷事件 ,与北大西洋沉积及格陵兰冰芯记录可以逐一对比。长周期的气候旋回以及短期的突变事件 ,在时限上所谓存在几千年以上滞后或超前 ,可能是测试方法和测试对象的不同带来的差错 (包括测试误差 ) ;具有全球意义的一些气候突变事件 ,在发生的时间上可能都具有同时性。这种短期突变事件发生的动力机制问题 ,可能也是目前人类尚未识别出来的天文因素的驱动所致。     

Oxygen Isotope Records of Core 8KL of the South China Sea and Sea - level Change

Based on a comparison between the oxygen isotope records of benthic and plank tonic foraminifers from core 8KL of the South China Sea and sea-level change records derived from the Huon Peninsula, New Guinea, it is found that both records are very similar from 72 K a B.P. to the present, especially for the benthic oxygen isotope record. The linear regression shows that δ18O changes (0.9995‰ for benthic foraminifers and 1.022‰ for planktonic foraminifers) are equal to 100 m in sea-level fluctuation. After making temperature correction in the δ18O record of benthic foraminifers from 72 to 120 Ka B.P., the curve of sea-level oscillation of the South China Sea since 186 Ka B.P. has been reconstructed. The lowermost sea - level that occurred in the last glacial maximum and oxygen isotope stage 6 is approximately - 130 m.