Characterization of the Frequency of Extreme Earthquake Events by the Generalized Pareto Distribution

Recent results in extreme value theory suggest a new technique for statistical estimation of distribution tails (Embrechts et al., 1997), based on a limit theorem known as the Gnedenko-Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem. This theorem gives a natural limit law for peak-over-threshold values in the form of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), which is a family of distributions with two parameters. The GPD has been successfully applied in a number of statistical problems related to finance, insurance, hydrology, and other domains. Here, we apply the GPD approach to the well-known seismological problem of earthquake energy distribution described by the Gutenberg-Richter seismic moment-frequency law. We analyze shallow earthquakes (depth h<70 km) in the Harvard catalog over the period 1977–2000 in 12 seismic zones. The GPD is found to approximate the tails of the seismic moment distributions quite well over the lower threshold approximately M 10²⁴ dyne-cm, or somewhat above (i.e., moment-magnitudes larger than m _W =5.3). We confirm that the b-value is very different (b=2.06 ± 0.30) in mid-ocean ridges compared to other zones (b=1.00 ± 0.04) with a very high statistical confidence and propose a physical mechanism contrasting crack-type rupture with dislocation-type behavior. The GPD can as well be applied in many problems of seismic hazard assessment on a regional scale. However, in certain cases, deviations from the GPD at the very end of the tail may occur, in particular for large samples signaling a novel regime.     

涡旋诱发重联模型（Ⅱ）——通量传输事件理论和模拟

本文应用涡旋诱发重联理论研究了地球磁层顶区发生的瞬时局部重联现象.对向阳面磁顶区通量传输事件(FTEs)的形成、结构和运动进行了理论和模拟研究,并与卫星观测结果作了比较.结果表明,涡旋诱发重联可能是产生FTEs的重要机制.利用这一理论模型能解释FTEs的一些主要观测现象.此外,对背阳面磁顶区的局部重联从理论上作了分析,指出在背阳面磁顶区可能存在类似于向阳面磁顶区的通量传输事件.     

Seasonal variations of deuterium and oxygen‐18 isotopes and their response to moisture source for precipitation events in the subtropical monsoon region

Deuterium and oxygen‐18 are common environmental tracers in water used to investigate hydrological processes such as evaporation and groundwater recharge, and to trace moisture source. In this study, we collected event precipitation from 01 January 2010 to 28 February 2011 at a site in Changsha, Yangtze River Basin to estimate the influence of moisture source and atmospheric conditions on stable isotope compositions. The local meteoric water line, established as δD = (8.45 ± 0.13) δ¹⁸O + (17.7 ± 0.9) (r² = 0.97, n = 189), had a higher slope and intercept than global meteoric water line. Temperature–δ¹⁸O exhibited complex correlations, with positive correlations during Nov.–Apr. superior to during Jun.–Sep., which was attributed to distinctive moisture sources, but vague the overall period; amount effect examined throughout the year. Linear regressions between δ¹⁸O and δD value in different precipitation event size classes revealed progressively decreasing slope and intercept values with decreasing precipitation amount and increasing vapour pressure deficit, indicating that small rainfall events (0–5 mm) were subject to secondary evaporation effects during rainwater descent. In contrast, snowfall and heavy precipitation events exhibited high slope and intercepts for the regression equation between δ¹⁸O and δD. High concentrations of heavy isotopes were associated with precipitation events sourced from remote westerly air masses, degenerated tropical marine air masses from the Bay of Bengal (BoB), and inland moisture in the pre‐monsoon period, as determined from backward trajectories assessed in the HYSPLIT model. Meanwhile, low concentrations of heavy isotopes were found to correspond with remote maritime moisture from BoB, the South China Sea, and the west Pacific at three different air pressures in summer monsoon and post‐monsoon using HYSPLIT and records of typhoon paths. These findings suggest that stable isotope compositions in precipitation events are closely associated with the meteorological conditions and respond sensitively to moisture source in subtropical monsoon climates. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of the Arctic on the Predictability of Eurasian Winter Extreme Weather Events

The linkage between the Arctic and midlatitudes has received much attention recently due to the rapidly changing climate. Many investigations have been conducted to reveal the relationship between the Arctic and Eurasian extreme events from the perspective of climatological statistics. As a prediction source for extreme events in Eurasia, Arctic conditions are crucial for extreme event predictions. Therefore, it is urgent to explore the Arctic influence on the predictability of Eurasian extreme ...     

MULTI-PERIODIC COLLISIONAL PROCESS BETWEEN INDIAN AND ASIAN CONTINENTS:A CASE OF EASTERN HIMALAYAN SYNTAXIS AND HENGDUAN MOUNTAINS

MULTI-PERIODIC COLLISIONAL PROCESS BETWEEN INDIAN AND ASIAN CONTINENTS:A CASE OF EASTERN HIMALAYAN SYNTAXIS AND HENGDUAN MOUNTAINS1　ZhongDalai,DingLin .RisingprocessoftheQinghai Xizang (Tibet) plateauanditsmechanism[J].ScienceInChina (se riesD) ,1996 ,39(4) :36 9～ 379. 2　DingLin ,ZhongDalai,PanYusheng ,etal.Fission trackevidenceforNeogenetoQuaternaryupliftoftheeasternHi malayansyntaxis[J].ChineseScienceBulletin ,1995 ,40 (16 ) :…     

朝阳北部早前寒武纪变质杂岩地质事件序列

朝阳北部早前寒武纪变质杂岩是华北克拉通北缘承德-阜新变质地块的一个重要组成部分,主要由一套变质火山岩、火山碎屑岩及其相伴生沉积岩等表壳岩组成,被TTG片麻岩、辉长岩和石英闪长岩等深成侵入体侵位。这些表壳岩和深成侵入体均经历了高角闪岩相变质作用。表壳岩中石榴石斜长角闪岩(CY004-3),其原岩岩浆结晶年龄为2513～2520Ma,遭受了2447Ma变质作用改造。石榴石透辉石斜长角闪岩(CY006-6),其原岩岩浆结晶年龄2481～2568Ma,记录了～2400Ma变质事件。小角度切割变质火山岩和磁铁石英岩的早期二长花岗质片麻岩脉体,岩浆结晶年龄为2496～2501Ma,表明这些变质火山岩的岩浆结晶年龄应在2500Ma以上。侵位于这些变质层状岩系内的不同规模的深成侵入体记录了古元古代早期重要的岩浆事件。石榴石辉石斜长角闪岩(CY004-4),原岩为辉长岩,岩浆就位年龄为2394Ma,记录2354Ma的变质年龄。黑云角闪斜长片麻岩(CY005-1),原岩为石英闪长岩,其岩浆就位结晶年龄为～2403Ma。变质辉长辉绿岩(CY014-1)给出了2399～2404Ma的岩浆就位结晶年龄。上述变质火山岩等表壳岩系主期变质作用发生在古元古代(2350～2460Ma),与变质深成侵入体就位同时发生。这些年代学结果表明,这一地区大规模的铁镁质火山喷发作用发生在新太古代末期,在古元古代(2350～2460Ma)发生主期变质作用和深成岩浆作用。     

Aptian and Albian atmospheric CO2 changes during oceanic anoxic events: Evidence from fossil Ginkgo cuticles in Jilin Province,Northeast China

The Early Cretaceous was a time with super-greenhouse conditions and episodic global oceanic anoxic events. However, relative timing of atmospheric CO₂ emissions and oceanic anoxic events, and their causal relationships remain matters of debate. Using the stomatal index approach, well-preserved fossil cuticles of Ginkgo from the Lower Cretaceous Changcai Formation, eastern Jilin, and from the Lower Cretaceous Yingcheng Formation, central Jilin, Northeast China, were investigated to reconstruct atmospheric CO₂ concentrations during the Aptian and earliest Albian (Early Cretaceous). The results indicate that the CO₂ concentrations reached 1098–1142 ppmv (Carboniferous standardization) or 970–1305 ppmv (regression function) during the Aptian and earliest Albian. Our estimates of palaeoatmospheric CO₂ concentrations during the earliest Albian (OAE 1b) are slightly higher than the data between the early Aptian Selli (OAE 1a) and the middle Aptian Fallot OAEs; this may indicate the absence of any great emissions of CO₂ during the latest Aptian and earliest Albian.     

中新生代海水锶同位素演化和古海洋事件

中新生代是地质历史中海水锶同位素组成变化最大的时期。晚白垩世以来海水N(87 Sr)/N(86Sr)值的持续上升与全球海平面的持续下降有关。喜马拉雅造山运动造成了40 Ma以来N(87 Sr)/N(86 Sr)值上升速度的显著加快;侏罗纪—早白垩世海水锶同位素的变化在很大程度上受泛大陆的解体控制,该地质事件使侏罗纪—早白垩世海水锶同位素总体上呈降低趋势;二叠/三叠纪界线的生物绝灭事件及界线后三叠纪初期的生态萧条控制了晚二叠世—早三叠世海水的锶同位素组成,早三叠世在全球海平面上升的背景下反而出现了锶同位素比值的急剧上升,单位时间的上升幅度居显生宙之首。与二叠/三叠纪界线生物绝灭有关的全球大陆植被的缺乏和风化速率加快是其主要控制因素;发生于中生代的海相红层事件记录了海水锶同位素比值的上升,显示风化作用的加剧可能诱发海相红层;但晚白垩世的大洋红层对应着全球海平面下降,其成因还与在全球变冷的背景下,温度较低且富氧的大洋表层水以及从两极向赤道方向运动的低温富氧海水与大洋深层水交换并造成大洋底层水富氧和沉积物的氧化有关。中生代的三次大洋缺氧事件均发生在锶同位素下降的时间间隔中,这与洋中脊洋壳生产和有关热液活动的增加有关,洋壳生产的增加导致了CO2 排气作用的增强和全球变暖,最     

浅析历史特大洪水在设计洪水中的作用

运用统计分析方法,研究了实测系列中加入４种不同情况的历史洪水对设计洪水的影响。结果表明：加入的历史洪水重现期越长,则设计洪水成果的稳定性越好;在同一历史洪水考证期内,加入１－２个历史洪水对提高设计洪水成果的稳定性和精订作用很明显。     

Paleoceanographic records in the Chukchi Basin, western Arctic Ocean during the late Quaternary

The late Quaternary paleoceanographic changes in the western Arctic Ocean are revealed by quantitative studies of foraminiferal abundance, ice-rafted detritus (IRD) and its mineralogical and petrological compositions, planktonic Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sin.) (Nps)-δ¹⁸O and -δ¹³C, biogenic and non-biogenic components in Core M03 token from the Chukchi Basin during the Second Chinese National Arctic Expedition cruise. Seven IRD events appeared at MIS 7, 5, 3 and 1. These IRD were carried in massive icebergs, which were exported to the Beaufort Sea through the M'Clure Strait Ice Stream, Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and then transported into the Chukchi Basin by the Beaufort Gyre. Low IRD deposition occurred during the glacial times when more extended ice cover and weakened Beaufort Gyre, while the open water condition and the intensified Beaufort Gyre during interglacial periods favored the IRD deposition. Therefore, the IRD events not only indicate the provenance of coarser detritus and ice export events, but also reflect the evolutionary histories of the Beaufort Gyre and North American ice sheet. Seven light Nps-δ¹⁸O and -δ¹³C excursions could respond to enhanced rates of sea ice formation resulting in the production and sinking of isotopically light brines, but was irrelevant to the warm Atlantic water and freshwater inputs. Whereas, the heavy Nps-δ¹⁸O and -δ¹³C values separately reflect the lessened Arctic freshwater and Pacific water, and well-ventilated surface water from the continental shelf and halocline water. Variations of CaCO₃ content and planktonic foraminiferal abundance during the interglacial and glacial periods can demonstrate the incremental or diminishing input of the Atlantic water, while the total organic carbon (TOC) and opal contents increased and decreased during the glacial and interglacial periods, respectively, which could be related to the TOC degradation, opal dissolution and redox conditions of interface between the bottom water and sediments.