新疆孔雀河流域人工绿洲近40年土地利用/覆被变化

区域尺度土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC）时空特征及驱动力是研究大尺度变化乃至全球变化演变过程的基础,而干旱区LUCC对区域水文、生态影响尤为显著,是全球变化研究的重点之一。以新疆孔雀河流域上游作为研究区,基于1977-2015年6期Landsat数据,采用多规则人机交互目视解译的方法完成LUCC制图,并利用LUCC模型从数量变化、空间变化、土地利用集约程度变化等多方面分析了近40年来该区域LUCC特点及演变机制。结果表明：（1）研究区仅有耕地和建设用地面积增加,且增幅均在200%以上,其他土地类型面积则均有不同程度的减少;（2）耕地变化呈现出空间集聚现象,而建设用地的扩张则呈现空间连续性;（3）2000年前后自然植被经历小幅退化—恢复过程;（4）受西部大开发、塔里木河生态综合治理工程等多种因素影响,2000-2005年间,空间变化的综合动态度最高（2.76%）;（5）自然因素影响较小,人口增长和政策因素是主要驱动因子。     

‘Borehole Race’ and the Dilemma of Governing the ‘Ungoverned’: Understanding the Urban Political Ecology of Groundwater Exploitation in Nigeria

Groundwater exploitation is an essential aspect of the numerous processes of transforming the urban natural environment for human gains. We use the political ecology of borehole exploitation in Nigeria’s urban environment to understand the micro-and macro-level processes mediating the transformation and changes in urban “groundwater scape”. The fieldwork processes depend on field counting of borehole distribution, in-depth and semi-structured interviews, and a review of secondary literatures. We argue that the social and environmental changes arising from the exploitation of groundwater bespeak the active and continual manifestation of the interplay of combustible interests and power friction among institutional agents within the permissible range of the natural environment. Such dynamic power relations engender a pattern of socio-natural transformation consistent with Swyngedouw’s notion of urban metabolism- “a series of interconnected heterogeneous and dynamic but contested and contestable processes of continuous quantitative and qualitative transformations that re-arranges humans and non-humans in new and often unexpected ways”.     

消费转型背景下度假型旅游地时空修复——基于三亚海棠湾的案例研究

消费转型背景下旅游目的地供需失衡矛盾凸显,由此引致了目的地新一轮的结构性调整,然而这一现象并未引起学界足够重视,现有的理论框架在解释力度上也存在明显不足。本文在详细剖析时空修复理论研究成果的基础上,结合中国情境与旅游情境,提出了资本应对消费转型的一般框架,分析了三亚海棠湾时空修复的整体历程,并揭示了案例背后的制度逻辑。研究表明：资本以时空修复的方式完成了对消费转型的应对。其中,时空修复的经济维度包括资本的空间修复与时间修复,在三亚海棠湾,空间修复突出的表现为地理扩张与空间重组,时间修复则重点表现在二级循环的缓建、停建及其向三级循环的跃迁。时空修复的非经济维度方面,政府部门藉由尺度重组用以促进资本的循环与积累,通过尺度上推,借助意识形态与城市战略,构建了资本空间运行的合法性;通过尺度下推,藉由绩效优先原则与权力下放策略,支持与服务资本的空间运行。但政府的部分行为在某种程度上干扰了市场秩序,延缓危机的同时制造了更大的隐患。此外,时空修复与尺度重组之间存在着理论关联,消费转型使得原有资本节律失常,地域组织通过尺度重组搭建起全新的地理架构,为资本的时空修复提供了相对稳定的地理平台。本文完善了时空修复的理论框架,部分回应了消费市场的理性回归对度假地的可能影响。     

Spatial and temporal variation of vegetation phenology and its response to climate changes in Qaidam Basin from 2000 to 2015

Based on TIMESAT 3.2 platform, MODIS NDVI data (2000–2015) of Qaidam Basin are fitted, and three main phenological parameters are extracted with the method of dynamic threshold, including the start of growth season (SGS), the end of growth season (EGS) and the length of growth season (LGS). The spatial and temporal variation of vegetation phenology and its response to climate changes are analyzed respectively. The conclusions are as follows: (1) SGS is mainly delayed as a whole. Areas delayed are more than the advanced in EGS, and EGS is a little delayed as a whole. LGS is generally shortened. (2) With the altitude rising, SGS is delayed, EGS is advanced, and LGS is shortened and phenophase appears a big variation below 3000 m and above 5000 m. (3) From 2000 to 2015, the temperature appears a slight increase along with a big fluctuation, and the precipitation increases evidently. (4) Response of phenophase to precipitation is not obvious in the low elevation humid regions, where SGS arrives early and EGS delays; while, in the upper part of the mountain regions, SGS delays and EGS advances with temperature rising, SGS arrives early and EGS delays with precipitation increasing.     

天津盘山景区客源空间结构短期动态变化分析

选择2014年"十一"黄金周及其前后为案例时段,运用移动通信运营商获取的旅游流大数据,使用客源地地理集中指数、客源吸引半径、距离衰减曲线和引力模型,对天津盘山景区国内客源市场空间结构短期动态变化进行研究。结果发现:随着工作日、周末、黄金周三类时段闲暇时间的增加,盘山景区远程客流比例明显增加,客源吸引半径增大,客源地集中指数降低,距离累计曲线变缓,但盘山景区黄金周前后时段的客源市场空间结构并没有显著的变化;距离因素在各时段对客流量的影响都是最大,而人口因素对天津以外的客源市场客流量的影响最大。     

气候变化和人类活动对中国地表水文过程影响定量研究

利用中国372个水文站月径流数据（1960-2000年）及41个水文站年径流数据（2001-2014年）,采用基于Budyko假设的水热耦合平衡方程,构建气候变化和人类活动对径流变化影响定量评估模型,在Penman-Monteith潜在蒸发分析基础上,进一步分析气象因子对径流变化的弹性系数,量化气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明：① 中国北方地区流域径流变化对各气象因子弹性系数明显大于中国南方地区。就全国而言,径流变化对各因子的弹性系数为：降水>土地利用/土地覆盖变化（LUCC）>相对湿度>太阳辐射>最高气温>风速>最低气温;② 1980-2000年,气候变化总体上有利于增加中国年径流量,而降水对年径流量增加的贡献最为显著;③ 1980-2000年,中国南方流域中,气候变化对年径流变化的影响以增加作用为主,而北方流域,以减少年径流作用为主。对中国大多数流域径流变化而言,人类活动的影响主要以减少年径流量为主。2001-2014年,气候变化以减少径流量为主,人类活动对径流变化的影响程度明显增强,气候变化与人类活动对径流变化的贡献率分别为53.5%、46.5%。该研究对气候变化与人类活动影响下,中国水资源规划管理、防灾减灾及保障水资源安全具有重要理论与现实意义。     

泛北极地区植被数据集与制图：回顾与展望

泛北极地区位于北半球高纬度地区,主要属于低温限制型生态系统,因而泛北极地区植被对全球变暖敏感。要明确泛北极地区陆地生态系统对全球变暖响应过程和机理,就需要高精度的植被类型分类数据作为基础资料。但是,目前泛北极地区植被数据的结果还不完善。为更好地认识泛北极地区植被类型分类的现状、发展历史和未来研究方向,本文综述了泛北极地区植被类型制图的数据来源、植被类型划分方法和植被类型制图研究方法。总体而言,泛北极地区的植被调查从20世纪20年代就陆续开展,目前部分区域尺度上的地表覆盖类型的结果,但具体的植被类型制图工作还存在一系列难题。主要原因包括植被野外调查实测数据较少和分布不均、植被类型分类标准不一、苔原植被群落的异质性大、制图技术和分类算法优化困难等。因此,在下一步泛北极植被类型制图工作中,需要制定标准化分类策略,规范数据获取及数据库的整理工作,并发展新的制图方法,从而促进植被类型制图研究工作。     

1990—2020年中国能源开采和加工场地多源数据综合制图与时空变化分析

由于当前缺乏有效的能源开采和加工场地精细化遥感探测方法和高精度的数据产品,全国尺度的能源开采和加工场地时空分布规律的认识仍显不足。本研究基于高分辨率遥感影像、土地利用/覆盖数据、网络爬虫数据、OSM地图数据和环境专题数据等信息,发展了基于多源数据融合和专家知识参与获取的能源开采和加工场地遥感识别和精细化制图的技术方法,研发了1990、2000、2010和2020年共4期的中国能源开采和加工场地分布数据产品及2010—2020年场地植被恢复信息数据产品,作为中国土地利用/覆盖变化数据的组成部分（CLUD-Mining）。CLUD-Mining具有较高的质量和可靠性,数据产品平均精度为91.75%;中国能源开采和加工场地开发建设的面积呈现先增长后减少的发展趋势,1990—2010年,面积增长速度从55.22 km²/a上升到95.51 km²/a,而2010—2020年呈现负增长,平均每年减少27.28 km²;此外,2010—2020年场地植被恢复面积达746.76 km²,主要集中在华北区和西南区;中国能源开采和加工场地分布格局逐渐由东部地区向西部地区转移。本研究对提升中国能源开采和加工场地时空分布特征的认识具有重要意义,可为场地污染治理和生态修复提供重要的数据基础。     

利用COST-G GRACE时变模型反演黄土高原陆地水储量变化

综合利用COST-G GRACE时变重力场模型、降水、气温、GLDAS模型中地表水、实测浅层地下水和NDVI等多源数据,分析2002-04~2016-12黄土高原陆地水储量的时空变化特征,并利用偏最小二乘回归方法定性分析黄土高原陆地水储量变化的驱动因素。结果表明：1)研究时段内黄土高原陆地水储量具有上升-下降-平缓下降的变化特征,山西省陆地水储量亏损趋势明显;2) 2004~2009年采煤用水、人类生活用水和植被作用是黄土高原陆地水储量下降的重要因素,2010~2016年工业用水、人类生活用水和气温上升是黄土高原陆地水储量下降的重要因素。     

Climate changes detected through the world's longest sea level series

The sea level series of Stockholm in the Baltic Sea, commencing already in 1774, is analysed in various ways together with contemporary climate data, in order to investigate long-term sea level changes and their relations to climate changes.First, a study of the eustatic rise of sea level, based on annual mean sea levels, is peformed, and compared with other sea level and climate studies. It is concluded that the general climatic rise of sea level has increased significantly (99.9%) from about 0.0 mm/year during the end of the Little Ice Age, to about 1.0 mm/year during the past century, characterized by melting of glaciers. Such sea level changes due to northern hemisphere climate variations since 800 A.D. have (hitherto) probably always kept within −1.5 and +1.5 mm/year, with an average fairly close to zero.Second, an investigation of the sea level variability, also based on annual mean sea levels, is performed together with temperature and wind variabilities. It is found that the interannual sea level variability of the Baltic Sea has decreased significantly (98%) from the end of the 1700s to the beginning of the 1900s; after that it has increased significantly (95%) again. Precisely the same is found to apply to winter climate or, more specifically, to the interannual winter temperature variability and the interannual winter wind variability. The common origin of all these long-term changes turn out to be two consecutive winter wind processes over the North and Baltic Seas, especially the Baltic entrance. From the end of the 1700s to the beginning of the 1900s, there has been a rapidly decreasing number of dominating winter winds from northeast, and after that there has been an increasing number of dominating winter winds from southwest. This may indicate corresponding long-term changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation.Third, using monthly mean sea levels together with corresponding wind data, seasonal variations are investigated. The seasonal sea level variation in the Baltic Sea has increased significantly (99%) since the early 1800s, together with a shift of the maximum from late summer to early winter. It is found that the main origin is a secular change of the winter wind conditions over the Baltic entrance, with increasing southwesterly winds in early winter. This might also be related to a long-term change in the North Atlantic Oscillation.