四川水氡测值突跳异常与地震

在四川开展水氡前兆观测的初期,部分水氡点的水氡测值突跳异常很好地对应了其可预测范围内的中强以上地震。水氡测值突跳异常曾作为松潘—平武和盐源—宁蒗等地震预报的重要依据。但在水氡观测至今的完整时间段内,水氡突跳异常总体表现出对应率低,漏报率高的现象。多次预报攻关研究结果显示,水氡观测的异常表现是多种多样的,水氡测值突跳异常只是其中的表现之一。在今后四川及邻区的中强以上地震预报实践中,水氡测值突跳异常仍可作为地震短临预报的重要参考。     

Brest sea level record: a time series construction back to the early eighteenth century

The completeness and the accuracy of the Brest sea level time series dating from 1807 make it suitable for long-term sea level trend studies. New data sets were recently discovered in the form of handwritten tabulations, including several decades of the eighteenth century. Sea level observations have been made in Brest since 1679. This paper presents the historical data sets which have been assembled so far. These data sets span approximately 300 years and together constitute the longest, near-continuous set of sea level information in France. However, an important question arises: Can we relate the past and the present-day records? We partially provide an answer to this question by analysing the documents of several historical libraries with the tidal data using a ‘data archaeology’ approach advocated by Woodworth (Geophys Res Lett 26:1589–1592, 1999b). A second question arises concerning the accuracy of such records. Careful editing was undertaken by examining the residuals between tidal predictions and observations. It proved useful to remove the worst effects of timing errors, in particular the sundial correction to be applied prior to August 1, 1714. A refined correction based on sundial literature [Savoie, La gnomique, Editions Les Belles Lettres, Paris, 2001] is proposed, which eliminates the systematic offsets seen in the discrepancies in timing of the sea level measurements. The tidal analysis has also shown that shallow-water tidal harmonics at Brest causes a systematic difference of 0.023 m between mean sea level (MSL) and mean tide level (MTL). Thus, MTL should not be mixed with the time series of MSL because of this systematic offset. The study of the trends in MTL and MSL however indicates that MTL can be used as a proxy for MSL. Three linear trend periods are distinguished in the Brest MTL time series over the period 1807–2004. Our results support the recent findings of Holgate and Woodworth (Geophys Res Lett) of an enhanced coastal sea level rise during the last decade compared to the global estimations of about 1.8 mm/year over longer periods (Douglas, J Geophys Res 96:6981–6992, 1991). The onset of the relatively large global sea level trends observed in the twentieth century is an important question in the science of climate change. Our findings point out to an ‘inflexion point’ at around 1890, which is remarkably close to that in 1880 found in the Liverpool record by Woodworth (Geophys Res Lett 26:1589–1592, 1999b).     

Towards medium-term (order of months) morphodynamic modelling of the Teign estuary, UK

The main objective of this paper is to address the principal mechanisms involved in the medium-term (order of months to years) morphodynamic evolution of estuaries through the application of a process-based numerical modelling. The Teign estuary (Teignmouth, UK) is the selected site. The system is forced by the macrotidal semi-diurnal tide in the English Channel and is perturbed to a minor extent by high river discharge events (freshets). Although waves have a definite influence on the adjacent coastal area, Wells (Teignmouth Quay Development Environmental Statement: Changes to Physical Processes. Report R.984c:140. ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd., Southampton, 2002b) suggested that swell waves do not enter the estuary. Hence, wave effects are neglected in this study, as only tides and the river discharge are taken into account. The sediment grain size is highly variable, but mainly sandy. Within the frame of the COAST3D project (), four bathymetric surveys of the adjacent coastal area were carried out at a nearly weekly intervals. The outer estuary and the adjacent coastal area were also surveyed every 6 months as part of the COASTVIEW project (). Based on these data and on continuously measured parameters, such as water level, waves, wind and river discharge, numerical modelling of the morphodynamic processes can be tested. To replicate the morphological changes in the medium-term within a feasible simulation time, forcing conditions are reduced through the use of an input reduction method (called ensemble technique). In this study, simulations are based on the coupling between Telemac-2D and its non-cohesive sediment transport module, Sisyphe (version 5.3 for both modules). Three different sediment transport formulae were tested: (1) Engelund and Hansen (A monograph on sediment transport in alluvial streams, 3rd edn. Technological University of Denmark, Copenhagen, 1967) including the modifications proposed by Chollet and Cunge (J Hydraul Eng 17(1):1–13, 1979); (2) Bijker (Mechanics of sediment transport by the combination of waves and current. In: Design and reliability of coastal structures. 23rd international conference on Coastal Engineering, pp 147–173, 1968) and (3) Soulsby (Dynamics of Marine Sands. A manual for practical applications. HR Wallingford, Wallingford, p 142, 1997) modified version of van Rijn [J Hydraul Eng 110(10):1431–1456, 1984a, J Hydraul Eng 110(11):1613–1641, 1984b] formulation. Both a qualitative (i.e. visual comparison) and a quantitative tool [Brier Skill Score (BSS); described in Sutherland et al. in Coast Eng 51:917–939, 2004b] are applied to assess the similarity of simulations when compared to model predictions and observations. Tests confirmed the reliability and time efficiency of the ensemble technique, since it reproduced very well the results of a reference run, a computation based on the observed boundary conditions. For the spring-neap cycle modelled, the BSS was of 0.91 (a perfect modelling would have a BSS of 1), with a reduction in the simulation time on the order of 80%. For the 6-month-period simulation, results were also excellent: BSS=0.92 and a computer time reduction of 85%. In principle, this method has the advantage of being applied to any process-based numerical model.     

神农架大九湖15.753kaB.P.以来的孢粉记录和环境演变*

根据对大九湖297cm厚的泥炭地层10个AMS ¹⁴ C年龄的测定以及148块孢粉样品的分析,发现每块样品的孢粉(浓度)含量都很高,植物种类繁多,分属于137(科)属,可划分为6个孢粉组合带,植被类型演替大体为:含少量常绿树种的针阔叶混交林—含常绿阔叶树种的落叶阔叶林—常绿落叶阔叶林—含常绿阔叶树种的落叶阔叶林—含少量常绿树种的针阔叶混交林。孢粉带Ⅰ(15.753~11.280kaB.P.)记录了该区域晚冰期及其向全新世过渡时期冷暖波动频繁的气候条件,其中亚带Ⅰ -1(15.753~15.549kaB.P.),Ⅰ -3(14.936~14.505kaB.P.)和Ⅰ -5(12.655~11.280kaB.P.)可能分别对应最老仙女木期、老仙女木和新仙女木冷期,而亚带Ⅰ -2(15.549~14.936kaB.P.)和Ⅰ -4(14.505~12.655kaB.P.)分别对应博令和阿勒罗德暖期。孢粉带Ⅱ(11.280~9.218kaB.P.)代表了由晚冰期冷湿气候向全新世温暖气候转换的早全新世缓慢升温的过渡时期。孢粉带Ⅲ(9.218~7.530kaB.P.)代表中全新世前期的气温波动上升期,7.7kaB.P.前后达到最高温。孢粉带Ⅳ(7.530~4.051kaB.P.)代表中全新世适宜期,水热配置条件最佳。孢粉带Ⅴ(4.051~0.911kaB.P.)体现晚全新世温干的气候。孢粉带Ⅵ(0.911~0kaB.P)反映了大九湖温凉稍湿的气候。     

A dinoflagellate cyst record of Holocene climate and hydrological changes along the southeastern Swedish Baltic coast

A high-resolution, well-dated dinoflagellate cyst record from a lagoon of the southeastern Swedish Baltic Sea reveals climate and hydrological changes during the Holocene. Marine dinoflagellate cysts occurred initially at about 8600 cal yr BP, indicating the onset of the Littorina transgression in the southeastern Swedish lowland associated with global sea level rise, and thus the opening of the Danish straits. Both the species diversity and the total accumulation rates of dinoflagellate cysts continued to increase by 7000 cal yr BP and then decreased progressively. This pattern reveals the first-order change in local sea level as a function of ice-volume-equivalent sea level rise versus isostatic land uplift. Superimposed upon this local sea level trend, well-defined fluctuations of the total accumulation rates of dinoflagellate cysts occurred on quasi-1000- and 500-yr frequency bands particularly between 7500 and 4000 cal yr BP, when the connection between the Baltic basin and the North Atlantic was broader. A close correlation of the total accumulation rates of dinoflagellate cysts with GISP2 ice core sea-salt ions suggests that fluctuations of Baltic surface conditions during the middle Holocene might have been regulated by quasi-periodic variations of the prevailing southwesterly winds, most likely through a system similar to the dipole oscillation of the modern North Atlantic atmosphere.     

Younger Dryas to mid-Holocene environmental history of the lowlands of NW Transylvania, Romania

Pollen, micro-charcoal and total carbon analyses on sediments from the Turbuta palaeolake, in the Transylvanian Basin of NW Romania, reveal Younger Dryas to mid-Holocene environmental changes. The chronostratigraphy relies on AMS ¹⁴C measurements on organic matter and U/Th TIMS datings of snail shells. Results indicate the presence of Pinus and Betula open woodlands with small populations of Picea, Ulmus, Alnus and Salix before 12,000 cal yr BP. A fairly abrupt replacement of Pinus and Betula by Ulmus-dominated woodlands at ca. 11,900 cal. yr BP likely represents competition effects of vegetation driven by climate warming at the onset of the Holocene. By 11,000 cal yr BP, the woodlands were increasingly diverse and dense with the expansion of Quercus, Fraxinus and Tilia, the establishment of Corylus and the decline of upland herbaceous and shrubs taxa. The marked expansion of Quercus accompanied by Tilia between 10,500 and 8000 cal yr BP could be the result of low effective moisture associated with both low elevation of the site and with regional change towards a drier climate. At 10,000 cal yr BP, Corylus spread across the region, and by 8000 cal yr BP it replaced Quercus as a dominant forest constituent, with only little representation of Picea abies. Carpinus became established around 5500 cal yr BP, but it was only a minor constituent in local woodlands until ca. 5000 cal yr BP. Results from this study also indicate that the woodlands in the lowlands of Turbuta were never closed.     

Evaluation of landscape changes and ecological degradation by GIS in arid regions: a case study of the terminal oasis of the Shiyang River,northwest China

The development and utilization of water and land resources in the Shiyang River basin are the highest among the inland rivers in northwestern China. Using GIS and the landscape structure analysis program FRAGSTATS, landscape metrics of a study area in the lake-district in Minqin Oasis in the lower reaches of Shiyang River basin were calculated and analyzed based on TM images from 1987 to 2001 at class level and landscape level, respectively. Transformation matrix of the landscape mosaics was also examined. The driving forces of landscape changes were analyzed, including the dynamics of runoff and groundwater resources and their exploitation, and influences of policies and market economy. The results showed that: (1) Patch number of farmland and desert decreased, but their mean patch area increased, indicating that reclamation and desertification was very serious in the study area. Contagion index for oasis increased and edge density and landscape diversity were reduced. (2) Farmland and desert areas have enlarged by 1,520.46 and 4,941.27 hm², respectively. This increase was at the cost of woodland and grassland, which shrank by 1,520.46 and 4,941.27 hm², respectively. (3) The net utilization of surface water decreased by 50% in the last 10 years, and dropped to 22.3 × 10⁶ m³ in the later 1990s. Exploitation of groundwater increased remarkably, up to 80 × 10⁶ m³ per year in the last 5 years. (4) The capability of the economic structure to withstand pressures of the market economy has depressed distinctly because of the simplified planting pattern, which is dominated by salinity-enduring cash crops, such as cotton. Based on the above analysis, strategies of ecological reconstruction in the lake-district were suggested.     

3S集成技术在城镇土地利用变更调查中的应用研究

城镇地区由于建筑物密集、土地利用类型变化快、土地利用现状图比例尺较大等特点,土地利用变更调查主要依靠专业部门利用全站仪完成,但全站仪需要通视的特点限制了其工作效率。而采用3S集成技术进行城镇地区土地利用变更调查的技术方法,则可以相应提高工作效率。基于3S集成技术城镇地区土地利用变更调查的应用模式为:通过GPS接收机与笔记本电脑(已配置GIS软件系统)通讯,实现GPS与GIS的集成,并调用RS影像作为底图,既可实现实时的数据采集、存储和编辑。对于城镇地区部分GPS信号弱的地区,采用测边交会的方法则可以完成这些点的数据采集,克服了GPS使用盲区的限制。     

0.8MaB.P.以来西藏雅鲁藏布江中游地区沙地演化和气候变化

根据地表沉积相特征及其对气候变化的反映,着重讨论了西藏雅鲁藏布江中游沙地形成时代、演化过程和气候变化。沙地早在中更新世中期的０．８ＭａＢ．Ｐ．就已出现,经历了强烈发展、缓慢发展槿相对稳定和缩小与固定的多次迭覆更替,并呈不断扩大趋势。与此同时,气候也经历了冷干和暖湿的多次变化,并表现出不断向干冷化方向发展的趋势。     

Women's status, environmental changes and child health in the riverine area of Ondo State, Nigeria

The viewpoint that most health problems are environmentally related has always been promoted by medical geography. In recent times, concern about environmental degradation has been of high priority for many national and international organizations as ‘we human beings become a threat to our planet’. There is also a need to specifically focus attention on the impact of so-called development efforts on the health of women and children, in particular those living in highly marginalized regions which often contribute substantially to the overall development of their countries. This paper uses the concept of vulnerability as a departure point from which to map the health risks to children in Igbekun area of Ondo State, the ‘transgressive muddy’ oil-rich coastal area of Nigeria. The paper attempts to highlight the poor quality of life and health of children in particular, and how it is becoming much more difficult to practice health intervention programmes, especially oral rehydration therapy (ORT) in the area. The Igbekun area is an unhealthy and harsh environment, complicated by the devastating effects of oil drilling in recent years. The siltation and sedimentation of the creeks and lagoons have serious health dimensions as human faeces float in and around villages because the ‘bush toilets’ can no longer be reached. The on-going environmental crisis has also deprived women of their traditional means of livelihood; fishing. There is a relatively high level of ignorance (compared with other women living in the same local government area (LGA) of causes of the commonest diseases such as diarrhoea, acute respiratory infection (ARI) and measles. A majority of the women have never heard of family planning, immunization against diseases and interventions such as ORT. Promotive health care services, especially those that strive to reduce the high mortality of children have passed the mothers by. It is also becoming impracticable to promote ORT because of the widespread ‘salty and oily’ water supply in the area. The greatest concern of the women now is that oil drilling activities have further amplified their stressful conditions especially their health and that of their children. Unfortunately, their plight is not acknowledged by the Nigerian authorities and the oil companies are least concerned about alleviating the poor health status of the community, in particular the most vulnerable groups, children under the age of five. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.