Progress in Numerical Simulation of Long-Term Impact of Thermokarst Lakes on Permafrost Thermal Regime

Thermokarst lakes are a major heat source for the adjacent permafrost and a significant source of atmospheric methane. These lakes have important impacts on the physical, chemical, biological, geomorphological and hydrological processes occurring in the ground under and around thermokarst lakes, and seriously affect the local environment and the stability of the structures constructed in permafrost regions. Numerical simulation methods provide an effective method for quantitative analysis of the long-term impact of thermokarst lakes and their evolution on permafrost surrounding the lakes, and have deepened our knowledge about the impact of thermokarst lakes immensely. Summarizing the research progresses in numerical simulation of long-term impact of thermokarst lakes on thermal regime of surrounding permafrost has an important guiding function to improve mathematical models and develop more effective models. In this study, the components, functions, advantages and defects of several typical mathematical models having developed over the past ten years or so were reviewed, such as the heat conduction model with phase change, thaw slumping model, the coupled lake-permafrost model, thaw lake expansion model combining thermal processes with mass wasting and thaw-driven subsidence, the coupled heat conduction and moisture migration model, and the moving mesh method based thermokarst lake dynamic evolution model. Several issues deserving to be paid further attention in the future researches were proposed, including creating more effective models, determining the more realistic initial condition, lucubrating thermal and physical parameters of the typical soils, consider the impact of lake water replenishment, quantitative analysis of the thermal effect of supra-permafrost water flow around the thermokarst lakes, creating the coupled governing equation of heat conduction with phase change and convective heat transfer, embed ding the effect of climate warming in the model, numerical investigation of the long-term influence of thermokarst lake drainage on the environment change in permafrost regions, analyzing the long-term joint impact of multiple lakes on adjacent permafrost, simulating the near-shore talik development process and feature beneath shallow water in expanding thermokarst lakes, and continuing to do the systemic and comprehensive field measurements.     

Study on Environmental and Hydrological Effects of Thermokarst Lakes in Permafrost Regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Thermokarst lake is the most visible morphologic landscape developing during the process of permafrost degradation, and it is still an international hot topic in permafrost research. The climate warming, and the consequent degradation of the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau aggravate thermokarst lake development. The permafrost is normally considered as an aquiclude, and the permafrost degradation, especially when the permafrost is completely thawed by a thermokarst lake, might influence regional ground water. Therefore, a research program focusing on environmental and hydrological effects of thermokarst lakes in permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was started and supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China. The work proposed by the application includes: To analysis the spatial and temporal distribution rule of thermokarst lakes in the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor (QTEC) under the climate change and engineering activities, and to evaluate the ecological environment effects through remote sensing and field investigation; to reveal the main factors influencing a typical thermokarst lake and its hydrothermal condition, and to elucidate the conversion relationship between the thermokarst lake and the groundwater with hydrological and isotope tracer tests; to make an analysis of the influences of different lake stage and size on regional permafrost, hydrological conditions and ecological environment through numerical simulation and statistical modelling, considering the relationships between the thermokarst lake and the ground water level. The research results will help to accurately assess regional permafrost ecological environment evolution and trend prediction, and to reasonably understand the impact factors of the permafrost hydrological evolution and its response mechanism to the ecological environment in the river source regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In this paper, the research status analysis, the main research contents, research objectives and prospects were introduced so as to provide some references for related researchers and engineers.     

基于Fluent数值模拟的冰湖涌浪分析 ——以西藏聂拉木县嘉龙错为例

冰湖溃决洪水或泥石流（GLOF）是青藏高原主要灾害之一,其形成的灾害链对人民的生命财产安全造成了严重的威胁,其中冰崩导致的冰湖溃决是GLOF的主要灾害形式,但由于其发生位置偏远、间隔时间长、随机性强,导致实地观测资料缺乏,冰崩入湖形成的涌浪机理和过程仍不清晰,而涌浪的规模是GLOF造成下游灾害大小的最主要因素。为分析冰湖涌浪的产生、沿程传播过程和对冰碛坝的爬坡高度,以西藏聂拉木县嘉龙错为例,采用有限体积法,基于流体计算软件Fluent,模拟了嘉龙错补给冰川发生冰崩导致冰湖涌浪的过程。结果表明：数值模拟能较好地对涌浪的产生、规模、沿程传播和对岸爬坡过程进行再现,涌浪初始高度随着冰湖水深、冰体入湖速度和冰体厚度的增加而增大,涌浪高度增加趋势随着冰体入湖速度和冰湖水深的增加而增大,随着冰体厚度的增加而减小。     

中国玛珥湖及其研究意义

随着全球变化研究的深入,科学家们认识到古气候变化除轨道尺度的冰期/间冰期旋回之外还存在年代际-千年尺度的高频变化和突变事件。要认知这些变化,古气候记录的时间分辨率要达到"年-年代际"。因此,寻求时间跨度长、连续性好、信息丰富的高分辨率记录是过去全球变化研究面临的主要任务之一。玛珥湖为火山射汽喷发形成的封闭湖泊,由于其独特的形成机制及水文背景,使其能够提供数万年乃至几十万年连续稳定的沉积记录,是高分辨率古气候、古环境变化研究的重要对象。中国玛珥湖得天独厚,从热带到寒温带均有分布,为系统研究中国不同气候区各种时间尺度古气候变化规律提供了理想材料。本文基于中国玛珥湖的分布及沉积特征,探讨玛珥湖沉积记录能够为古全球变化研究做出怎样的贡献,解决什么科学问题,具体包括以下三个方面的内容:(1)在轨道尺度上,精确定位现代气候在地质历史中的位置是未来最具挑战性的科学问题之一。我国热带地区玛珥湖沉积物跨越了至少4个冰期-间冰期旋回,能够为理解冰期驱动机制、下一次冰期来临、高低纬关联等关键科学问题提供多学科数据;(2)千年尺度古气候变化,其成因可能源于不同的动力学机制,是气候系统对各种外部和内部驱动因子响应的结果,因此千年震荡可能存在明显的时空差异。集成不同气候带的玛珥湖沉积记录将为理解千年震荡规律及其驱动因子做出贡献;(3)年-年代际气候变化是预测未来气候变化的基础,PAGES、IPCC以及PAGES-Asia 2K均将过去2千年来气候变化作为预测未来几十年至百年尺度上重大全球变化的背景,并为此构建全球数据体系,玛珥湖沉积特别是纹层沉积记录能够填补某些地区高分辨率数据的空白。     

The tempo-spatial characteristics and forming mechanism of Lithium-rich brines in China

With the technological development of exploitation and separation, the primary sources of lithium have gradually changed from ore to brine, which has become the main raw material, accounting for more than 80% of the total production. Resources of lithium-bearing brine are abundant in China. This paper has summarized the spatial and temporal distribution, characteristics, and formation mechanism of the lithium-rich brine in China, aiming to provide a comprehensive set of guidelines for future lithium exploitation from brines. Lithium-rich brines usually exist in modern saline lakes and deep underground sedimentary rocks as subsurface brines. The metallogenic epoch of China’s lithium-rich brine spans from the Triassic to the Quaternary, and these brines exhibit obvious regional distribution characteristics. Modern lithium-rich saline lakes are predominately located in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In comparison, the subsurface lithium-rich brines are mainly distributed in the sedimentary basins of Sichuan, Hubei, Jiangxi provinces and so on in south Block of China, and some are in the western part of the Qaidam Basin in Qinghai province in northwestern China. Lithium-rich saline lakes are belonging to chloride-enriched, sulfate-enriched, and carbonate-enriched, while the deep lithium-rich brines are mainly chloride-enriched in classification. On the whole, the value of Mg/Li in deep brine is generally lower than that of brine in saline lakes. The genesis of lithium-rich brines in China is not uniform, generally there are two processes, which are respectively suitable for salt lakes and deep brine.     

Remote sensing of nutrients in a subtropical African reservoir: testing utility of Landsat 8

Remote sensing is useful for water quality assessments but current remote sensing applications favour parameters that are easy to detect such as chlorophyll-a. An assessment of the utility of Landsat 8 for detecting nutrients was conducted in Mazvikadei reservoir in Zimbabwe. The main objective was to determine whether nutrients often overlooked by remote sensing and yet are the main determinants of water quality can be remotely sensed. Sampling targeted ammonia, nitrates and reactive phosphorus from May to October 2015. In situ nutrient concentrations were regressed against reflectance derived from Landsat 8 imagery. Strong negative relationships were found between ammonia and the near-infrared band in July (R² = 0.80, p < 0.05) as well as between nitrates and the blue band (R² = 0.67, p < 0.05) in June. Overall, the results suggest that the cool dry season is the optimum time to use Landsat 8 for monitoring nutrients in tropical lakes.     

岱海近400年以来的环境变化:高分辨率XRF岩芯扫描结果的研究

岱海是东亚夏季风边缘地带的闭流型半咸水湖泊,其汇水流域降水量的变化易于引发湖泊水位和水化学变动。选用DH11-1岩芯进行1 mm分辨率XRF元素扫描分析,并对测试结果进行多元数理统计分析,旨在查明这些元素与外源碎屑、自生碳酸盐沉积以及岱海水位、水化学变化的关联。结果显示,Si、Al、Ti、K、Fe、Rb等元素相关性好,并呈现相似的变化趋势,其含量变化与主要河流带入的碎屑物的多寡有关;Ca元素主要反映沉积物中自生碳酸盐即文石和方解石矿物含量的增减。研究发现,在人类活动严重影响之前,岱海在过去~400年期间的环境特征总体可划分为4个阶段,各阶段的水位、水化学特征及水量平衡有所不同,总体受汇水盆地降水量变化的控制。此外,沉积物中Cu、Zn、Cr可能与人类活动影响有关。     

Reconstructing 4000 years of mass movement and tsunami history in a deep peri‐Alpine lake (Lake Geneva,France‐Switzerland)

The study of mass movements in lake sediments provides insights into past natural hazards at historic and prehistoric timescales. Sediments from the deep basin of Lake Geneva reveal a succession of six large‐scale (volumes of 22 × 10⁶ to 250 × 10⁶ m³) mass‐transport deposits, associated with five mass‐movement events within 2600 years (4000 cal bp to 563 ad ). The mass‐transport deposits result from: (i) lateral slope failures (mass‐transport deposit B at 3895 ± 225 cal bp and mass‐transport deposits A and C at 3683 ± 128 cal bp ); and (ii) Rhône delta collapses (mass‐transport deposits D to G dated at 2650 ± 150 cal bp , 2185 ± 85 cal bp , 1920 ± 120 cal bp and 563 ad , respectively). Mass‐transport deposits A and C were most probably triggered by an earthquake, whereas the Rhône delta collapses were likely to be due to sediment overload with a rockfall as the external trigger (mass‐transport deposit G, the Tauredunum event in 563 ad known from historical records), an earthquake (mass‐transport deposit E) or unknown external triggers (mass‐transport deposits D and F). Independent of their origin and trigger mechanisms, numerical simulations show that all of these recorded mass‐transport deposits are large enough to have generated at least metre‐scale tsunamis during mass movement initiation. Since the Tauredunum event in 563 ad , two small‐scale (volumes of 1 to 2 × 10⁶ m³) mass‐transport deposits (H and I) are present in the seismic record, both of which are associated with small lateral slope failures. Mass‐transport deposits H and I might be related to earthquakes in Lausanne/Geneva (possibly) 1322 ad and Aigle 1584 ad , respectively. The sedimentary record of the deep basin of Lake Geneva, in combination with the historical record, show that during the past 3695 years, at least six tsunamis were generated by mass movements, indicating that the tsunami hazard in the Lake Geneva region should not be neglected, although such events are not frequent with a recurrence time of 0·0016 yr^?1.     

Is a regional flood signal reproducible from lake sediments?

The evolution of flood activity with global warming remains uncertain. To better assess flood–climate relationships, lake sediments are increasingly being investigated because they could provide regional flood histories long enough to cover past climate changes. However, site‐specific sedimentary processes may bias flood reconstructions. The aim of this article is to investigate these effects through the reconstruction of two distinct flood records from independent, neighbouring sedimentary basins of the same lake (Lake Allos in the Mediterranean French Alps), i.e. under the same climate conditions. Understanding of sedimentary processes is crucial in order to adapt the sampling strategy and the flood‐intensity proxy to each sedimentary system and, thereby, reconstruct a complete and reliable flood history. Thanks to this detailed approach, the main trends of the regional flood variability can be reproduced; i.e. periods of high flood‐frequency, ranges of flood‐frequency values and timing of the most intense events. In detail, some differences appeared associated to the various stream capacities to erode and transport flood sediments to the lake system, implying variable sensitivity of sedimentary systems in recording floods. Comparing regional flood records based on independent sedimentary systems from similar environments could thus be a complementary approach to assessing past flood intensity. Such an approach could open particularly interesting perspectives because reconstructing the long‐term evolution of flood intensity is a key challenge in the geosciences.     

A comparison of the sedimentary records of the 1960 and 2010 great Chilean earthquakes in 17 lakes: Implications for quantitative lacustrine palaeoseismology

Seismically‐induced event deposits embedded in the sedimentary infill of lacustrine basins are highly useful for palaeoseismic reconstructions. Recent, well‐documented, great megathrust earthquakes provide an ideal opportunity to calibrate seismically‐induced event deposits for lakes with different characteristics and located in different settings. This study used 107 short sediment cores to investigate the sedimentary impact of the 1960 M_w 9·5 Valdivia and the 2010 M_w 8·8 Maule earthquakes in 17 lakes in South‐Central Chile (i.e. lakes Negra, Lo Encañado, Aculeo, Vichuquén, Laja, Villarrica, Calafquén, Pullinque, Pellaifa, Panguipulli, Neltume, Riñihue, Ranco, Maihue, Puyehue, Rupanco and Llanquihue). A combination of image analysis, magnetic susceptibility and grain‐size analysis allows identification of five types of seismically‐induced event deposits: (i) mass‐transport deposits; (ii) in situ deformations; (iii) lacustrine turbidites with a composition similar to the hemipelagic background sediments (lacustrine turbidites type 1); (iv) lacustrine turbidites with a composition different from the background sediments (lacustrine turbidites type 2) and (v) megaturbidites. These seismically‐induced event deposits were compared to local seismic intensities of the causative earthquakes, eyewitness reports, post‐earthquake observations, and vegetation and geomorphology of the catchment and the lake. Megaturbidites occur where lake seiches took place. Lacustrine turbidites type 2 can be the result of: (i) local near‐shore mass wasting; (ii) delta collapse; (iii) onshore landslides; (iv) debris flows or mudflows; or (v) fluvial reworking of landslide debris. On the contrary, lacustrine turbidites type 1 are the result of shallow mass wasting on sublacustrine slopes covered by hemipelagic sediments. Due to their more constrained origin, lacustrine turbidites type 1 are the most reliable type of seismically‐induced event deposits in quantitative palaeoseismology, because they are almost exclusively triggered by earthquake shaking. Moreover, they most sensitively record varying seismic shaking intensities. The number of lacustrine turbidites type 1 linearly increases with increasing seismic intensity, starting with no lacustrine turbidites type 1 at intensities between V½ and VI and reaching 100% when intensities are higher than VII½. Combining different types of seismically‐induced event deposits allows the reconstruction of the complete impact of an earthquake.