新疆短期气候预测研究的回顾

回顾了1958－1997年新疆短期气候预测研究取得的主要成果，包括：大气环流变化及其与新疆天气气候的关系；新疆冬、春季水旱以及北疆前冬冷暖长期天气过程的分析；北半球月平均加热场及其在长期天气预报中的应用；海气相互作用、地形影响、低频振荡过程以及在短期气修预测中的应用；新疆短期气候预测方法的应用研究等。     

洞庭湖区第四纪气候变化的初步探讨

探讨了洞庭湖区第四纪以来的气候变化，初步得出以下规律：更新世气候变化剧烈，气候组合暖湿（温湿）与冷干；全新世气候转为温凉，主要气候组合为温湿与凉干；历史时期气候主要仍温湿与凉干交替，但15 世纪以来出现短暂的温干与凉温期；15世纪以来，气候波动频繁，有愈来愈不稳定的趋向，进入20世纪，旱涝灾害更加。在全球变暖的背景下，预计该区未来气候趋向于暖湿，但不排除暖干的可能性。     

祁连山北坡中部气候特征及垂直气候带的划分

通过对祁连山北坡中部气候特征，森林植被类型和土壤类型的定位预测研究，对祁连山北坡中部森林生态系统的主要气象要素垂直分布特征进行分析，应用气候指标和生物学原理，将祁连山林区按不同海拔高度划分为：1.山地荒漠草原气候带；2.山地草原气候带；3.山地森林草原气候带；4.亚高山灌丛草甸气候带；5.高山亚冰雪稀疏植被气候带；进而提出了合理开发祁连山山地气候资源，以促进当地经济发展。     

Fault propagation and climatic control of sedimentation on the Ghoubbet Rift Floor: insights from the Tadjouraden cruise in the western Gulf of Aden

A detailed geophysical survey of the Ghoubbet Al Kharab (Djibouti) clarifies the small-scale morphology of the last submerged rift segment of the propagating Aden ridge before it enters the Afar depression. The bathymetry reveals a system of antithetic normal faults striking N130°E, roughly aligned with those active along the Asal rift. The 3.5 kHz sub-bottom profiler shows how the faults cut distinct layers within the recent, up to 60 m thick, sediment cover on the floor of the basin. A large volcanic structure, in the centre of the basin, the 'Ghoubbet' volcano, separates two sedimentary flats. The organization of volcanism and the planform of faulting, with en echelon subrifts along the entire Asal–Ghoubbet rift, appear to confirm the westward propagation of this segment of the plate boundary. Faults throughout the rift have been active continuously for the last 8400 yr, but certain sediment layers show different offsets. The varying offsets of these layers, dated from cores previously retrieved in the southern basin, imply Holocene vertical slip rates of 0.3–1.4 mm yr⁻¹ and indicate a major decrease in sedimentation rate after about 6000 yr BP, and a redistribution of sediments in the deepest troughs during the period that preceded that change.     

Quantitative models for reconstructing catchment ice-extent using physical-chemical characteristics of lake sediments

The physical characteristics of surface sediments from a suite of pristine lakes on Signy Island, maritime Antarctic, were used to develop a quantitative link between catchment ice-extent and lake-sediment response. Percentage dry weight, median particle size, percentage loss-on-ignition and wet density of the lakes' surface sediments were the most significant variables explaining contemporary catchment ice-extent. Two independent reconstruction models – Partial Least Squares (PLS) and a Modern Analog Technique (MAT) – were applied to dated sediment cores at two sites on Signy Island. The validity of the reconstructions was tested against historical information on catchment ice-extent. With sufficiently high sedimentation rates and sampling resolution, the models can predict sub-decadal changes in ice-extent. The model results are best regarded as indicators of erosion resulting from meltwater activity in the catchment. Comparison of results with Twentieth Century climate records affirms the hypothesis that climatic warming is the most likely cause for the ice retreat observed on Signy Island during the last 40 yrs. Similar reconstruction models using these simple sedimentary measures could be developed for analogous locations in the Antarctic and in Arctic and Alpine regions.     

Long-term climato-limnological cycles found in a 3.5-million-year continental record

Analysis of physical properties in long sediment cores (BDP96) from Academician Ridge in Lake Baikal indicates that major climato-limnological changes during the past 3.5 Myr occurred at about 2.5–2.8, 1.7–1.9, and 0.9–1.2 Ma, which were close to times of major geomagnetic polarity reversals (Matuyama/Gauss, Olduvai, Jaramillo + Matuyama/Brunhes). The principal climato-limnological oscillation has a long-term period of nearly 1,000 kyr, which corresponds to the periodicity of fluctuation in solar insolation. It also seems to be related to geomagnetic field intensity. Other long-term period of 400 kyr corresponds to Milankovitch parameters of eccentricity. These results suggest that changes in solar insolation were closely related to long-term environmental variations in the deep continental interior.     

西藏高原近40年的气温变化

利用西藏1961－2000年月平均气温、最高气温、最低气温资料，分析了近40年高原气温的变化趋势。结果发现，西藏大部分地区四季和年平均气温为升温趋势，尤其是秋、冬季；高原上普遍存在气温非对称变化现象，以Tmax、Tmin显著上升，但Tmin上升幅度大于Tmax为主要类型。Tmax上升主要表现在夏季，增暖以冬季最为明显，气温日较差降夏季外均显著减小。在各纬度带上均表现为升温，春、秋季升温最大，冬季次之。高海拔地区比低海拔地区升温强。近40年来西藏高原年平均气温以0.26℃/10a的增长率上升，明显高于全国和全球气温的增长率。20世纪60年代多异常偏冷年，90年代多异常偏暖年。     

古吉黑造山带拼接带地球物理特征线

吉黑造山带拼接带的地球物理特征线，在重磁图上为伊通-吉昌-桦甸、贤儒-安图-开山屯一线。它分割了两种截然不同的地球物理场区，与两侧中元古宙-早三叠世不同的地质发育历史相呼应；和石炭-二叠系安哥拉与华夏植物地球区系的界线相一致。这是有别于前人而为更多新的地质资料所支持的新认识。     

导致古森林沉没于海的福建深沪湾古地震研究

福建深沪湾海底古森林是强古地震遗迹。研究结果表明 ,全新世早期该处海底古森林生长在由松散的晚更新世含砾砂粘土构成的低凹洼地内。距今 70 0 0a左右的强古地震导致古森林沉没于海并形成泻湖环境 ,约距今 2 0 0 0a的又一次强古地震使海底古森林沉没到更深的海底 ,推测这两次古地震的震级都超过 7级     

利用车贝雪夫多项式进行资料缺测插补的研究

使用一维车贝雪夫多项式展开进行历史年降水量和月平均气温各种缺测情况下资料的插补试验，在迭代计算过程中，还对理想初值的两种临界迭代次数选取方案和迭代终值法进行了大量的试验。结果表明，一般情况下迭代终值计算精度较高，旱涝年则理想初值拟合结果更好一些；一年缺测插补精度高于连续多年缺测；双向插补计算结果优于单独使用顺序或逆序插补结果。