Application of Normalized Full Gradient Method to Self Potential (SP) Data

Recently, Normalized Full Gradient (NFG) method has widespread applications to natural potential fields, especially in gravity and magnetic. In this study, usage of NFG in Self-Potential (SP) data evaluation is tested. Results are compared to other SP interpretation methods. The NFG method is applied to synthetic and field SP data. As a consequence of application of the method to the anomalies of spherical, cylindrical and vertical sheet models, whose theoretical structures are explicit, the structures were found very close to their actual locations. In order to see the capability of the method in detecting the number of sources, NFG method was applied to different spherical models at different depths and locations. The least-squares inverse solution was applied to the same models and NFG method was found more powerful in detecting model structure. Sensitivity of NFG method for application to noisy data is also tested. An anomaly is generated by adding a random noise to two close sphere SP anomalies. The method seems to work for the two close spheres at high S/N ratio. Then, NFG method was applied to two field examples. The first one is the cross section taken from the SP anomaly map of the Ergani-Süleymanköy (Turkey) copper mine. The depth of the mineral deposit at that site was found about 38 m from the ground level. This result is well matched to previous studies. NFG was also applied to SP data from Seferihisar Izmir (Western Turkey) geothermal field and the location of the point source was determined. The field data of this site have already been modeled by the thermoelectric source (coupling) solution method. When these two methods are compared, they seem to support each other. It is concluded that the NFG method works perfectly when the structure model is simple. It is observed that natural potential sources close to earth’s surface are identified by the method more accurately at greater harmonics, while deep sources are identified at lesser harmonics. It produces reasonable results for noisy multi-source models than the other parameter identification methods (inverse solution, power spectrum, etc.).     

Direct comparison of UK temperatures and Greenland snow accumulation rates, 15000—12000 yr ago

A palaeotemperature record based on fossil coleopteran evidence and dated by accelerator mass spectroscopy (AMS) ¹⁴C determinations on plant macrofossils has been obtained for the last glacial-interglacial transition from the site of Gransmoor in eastern England. Calibration of the radiocarbon measurements enabled a direct comparison to be made between this palaeotemperature curve and the snow accumulation record from the GISP-2 Greenland ice-core. The similarity between the two data sets suggests a degree of correspondence in the pattern and timing of climatic change in Greenland and the British Isles at the end of the last cold stage.     

Space-time correlations ofb values with stress release

A total of 1503 events for a 2-month period associated with am _N 2.6 rockburst is investigated for possible space-time correlations between low magnitude (–1.1 to –0.4)b values and several estimates of stress (static stress drop, apparent stress, and dynamic stress). Spatial variations of decreasingb values were found to be well correlated with increasing stress release estimates for time intervals prior to the rockburst and following the aftershock sequence. The strongest correlation tob value was with the dynamic stress drop, having correlation coefficients of 0.87 and 0.79 for the two intervals, respectively. The rockburst was found to actually occur at the intersection of the spatial coordinates corresponding to the largest gradient inb value. Based on these correlations, we conclude that the low magnitude seismicity is an indicator of the stress state within the rock mass, and can be used to study and forecast stress patterns in the vicinity of an impending major event. Time variations, however, did not show the same clear correlations and these are discussed in terms of departure from steady state conditions. Regardless, our results favour the use ofb values in a spatial, context rather than in a time analysis approach, and we consider thatb values provide valuable information regarding the changing stress conditions within the seismogenic volume.     

一种构造正则化矩阵的新方法

在系数矩阵病态时进行参数求解,合理地选择正则化参数和正则化矩阵可以提高参数估计的可靠性。针对正则化矩阵如何构造的问题,提出一种新的正则化矩阵构造方法。通过法矩阵较小奇异值对应的特征向量构造出一个对称矩阵,用该矩阵的主对角线元素构造出对角矩阵,然后与单位矩阵组合得出一种新的正则化矩阵。实验表明,当正则化参数小于1时,新算法的参数估值优于岭估计。     

Marginal abatement cost estimates for non-CO2 greenhouse gases: lessons from RECLAIM

Recognizing the potential for over- as well as under-estimating the mitigation costs of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases in an offset programme, this article examines the accuracy of cost estimates prepared by government agencies for the control of other types of emissions from small/medium sources via an offset programme. Specifically, analogy is made to the control of SO_x and NO_x controlled by California's Regional Clean Air Incentives Market (RECLAIM) Program. Even allowing for the energy crisis in 2000–2001 that drove up NO_x emissions and control costs, it appears that the engineering cost methods used turned out to be generally accurate, defined as ±25%. Although such a finding does not ensure that the same results will apply to the case of non-CO₂ GHGs, it certainly reinforces the growing literature on ex ante—ex post cost comparisons of environmental controls.     

Evaluation and hydrological application of precipitation estimates derived from PERSIANN‐CDR,TRMM 3B42V7, and NCEP‐CFSR over humid regions in China

Satellite‐based and reanalysis quantitative precipitation estimates are attractive for hydrologic prediction or forecasting and reliable water resources management, especially for ungauged regions. This study evaluates three widely used global high‐resolution precipitation products [Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks‐Climate Data Record (PERSIANN‐CDR), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 Version 7 (TRMM 3B42V7), and National Centers for Environment Prediction‐Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP‐CFSR)] against gauge observations with seven statistical indices over two humid regions in China. Furthermore, the study investigates whether the three precipitation products can be reliably utilized as inputs in Soil and Water Assessment Tool, a semi‐distributed hydrological model, to simulate streamflows. Results show that the precipitation estimates derived from TRMM 3B42V7 outperform the other two products with the smallest errors and bias, and highest correlation at monthly scale, which is followed by PERSIANN‐CDR and NCEP‐CFSR in this rank. However, the superiority of TRMM 3B42V7 in errors, bias, and correlations is not warranted at daily scale. PERSIANN‐CDR and 3B42V7 present encouraging potential for streamflow prediction at daily and monthly scale respectively over the two humid regions, whilst the performance of NCEP‐CFSR for hydrological applications varies from basin to basin. Simulations forced with 3B42V7 are the best among the three precipitation products in capturing daily measured streamflows, whilst PERSIANN‐CDR‐driven simulations underestimate high streamflows and high streamflow simulations driven by NCEP‐CFSR mostly are overestimated significantly. In terms of extreme events analysis, PERSIANN‐CDR often underestimates the extreme precipitation, so do extreme streamflow simulations forced with it. NCEP‐CFSR performs just the reverse, compared with PERSIANN‐CDR. The performance pattern of TRMM 3B42V7 on extremes is not certain, with coexisting underestimation and overestimation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adjustment of wind-drift effect for real-time systematic error correction in radar rainfall data

An effective bias correction procedure using gauge measurement is a significant step for radar data processing to reduce the systematic error in hydrological applications. In these bias correction methods, the spatial matching of precipitation patterns between radar and gauge networks is an important premise. However, the wind-drift effect on radar measurement induces an inconsistent spatial relationship between radar and gauge measurements as the raindrops observed by radar do not fall vertically to the ground. Consequently, a rain gauge does not correspond to the radar pixel based on the projected location of the radar beam. In this study, we introduce an adjustment method to incorporate the wind-drift effect into a bias correlation scheme. We first simulate the trajectory of raindrops in the air using downscaled three-dimensional wind data from the weather research and forecasting model (WRF) and calculate the final location of raindrops on the ground. The displacement of rainfall is then estimated and a radar–gauge spatial relationship is reconstructed. Based on this, the local real-time biases of the bin-average radar data were estimated for 12 selected events. Then, the reference mean local gauge rainfall, mean local bias, and adjusted radar rainfall calculated with and without consideration of the wind-drift effect are compared for different events and locations. There are considerable differences for three estimators, indicating that wind drift has a considerable impact on the real-time radar bias correction. Based on these facts, we suggest bias correction schemes based on the spatial correlation between radar and gauge measurements should consider the adjustment of the wind-drift effect and the proposed adjustment method is a promising solution to achieve this.     

加权整体最小二乘求解线性模型参数及精度估计

针对线性模型中最小二乘和整体最小二乘方法存在的问题,引进了加权整体最小二乘的方法,并给出了精度估算公式。通过线性模型的实例计算验证,加权整体最小二乘可以得到更加合理的拟合模型,获得更高精度的参数解,具有更小的中误差。     

一种基于水文模拟建立中小河流洪水气象风险等级指标的方法

提出一种基于水文模拟建立中小河流洪水气象风险等级临界累积面雨量指标（简称气象风险等级指标）的方法,由水位-流量曲线估计不同风险等级相应的临界参考流量,将2009年5月1日—9月30日綦江五岔、东溪、石角水文站的08：00BST报汛流量和雷达联合地面雨量计估测的流域面雨量作为TOPMODEL降水-径流模型率定时的流量和降水输入;在TOPMODEL水文模拟的基础上,选取2009年峰值流量过程,设计不同的小时面雨量序列进行水文模拟,得到峰值流量与流域累积面雨量的关系,根据临界参考流量,建立不同气象风险等级的临界累积面雨量指标;用2010年相应流域洪峰过程对所建立的指标进行检验。结果表明,利用气象风险等级指标推断的风险等级与实际洪峰对应的风险等级较为一致。