Analysis of time‐lapse travel‐time and amplitude changes to assess reservoir compartmentalization

Fluid depletion within a compacting reservoir can lead to significant stress and strain changes and potentially severe geomechanical issues, both inside and outside the reservoir. We extend previous research of time‐lapse seismic interpretation by incorporating synthetic near‐offset and full‐offset common‐midpoint reflection data using anisotropic ray tracing to investigate uncertainties in time‐lapse seismic observations. The time‐lapse seismic simulations use dynamic elasticity models built from hydro‐geomechanical simulation output and a stress‐dependent rock physics model. The reservoir model is a conceptual two‐fault graben reservoir, where we allow the fault fluid‐flow transmissibility to vary from high to low to simulate non‐compartmentalized and compartmentalized reservoirs, respectively. The results indicate time‐lapse seismic amplitude changes and travel‐time shifts can be used to qualitatively identify reservoir compartmentalization. Due to the high repeatability and good quality of the time‐lapse synthetic dataset, the estimated travel‐time shifts and amplitude changes for near‐offset data match the true model subsurface changes with minimal errors. A 1D velocity–strain relation was used to estimate the vertical velocity change for the reservoir bottom interface by applying zero‐offset time shifts from both the near‐offset and full‐offset measurements. For near‐offset data, the estimated P‐wave velocity changes were within 10% of the true value. However, for full‐offset data, time‐lapse attributes are quantitatively reliable using standard time‐lapse seismic methods when an updated velocity model is used rather than the baseline model.     

On the measurement of directional wave spectra at the southern Brazilian coast

The detailed reconstruction of the directional spectrum of wind waves from measurements of the wave field is an essential requirement for several applications, including the numerical modeling of wave evolution. Three reconstruction techniques that provide estimates of the directional distribution function D(f,θ), given the one-dimensional frequency spectrum, are compared using data from a coastal locality at the southern Brazilian coast. The techniques are the maximum entropy method (MEM), the Fourier Expansion Method using a cos² type function (FEM_cos) and the Fourier Expansion Method using a sech type function (FEM_sech). The main patterns of the wave climate at the study site are qualitatively assessed. Three main sea states, including swell, transition between local sea and swell, and directionally bimodal wind sea, are identified. Time series from three events associated with the main sea states provide test cases for inter comparison of the three reconstruction techniques. Maximum entropy estimates of D(f,θ) provide results that are more consistent than those obtained from the two FEM techniques in all cases considered.     

Tides and short-term variabilities in the Kuroshio west of Yonakuni-jima

INTRODUCFIONTheKuroshioeastofTaiwanIslandflowsnorthwardandenterstheEastChinaalgathroughapaSSagebetweenTaiwanIslandandlriomote-shima.TOstudyfurthertheKuroshiothereandestimateitstransPOrt,itisnecessarytoobservetheKuroshioCurrentdirectly.Therehavebeen*ThisstudywassupportedbytheNationalNaturalaudienceFoundationofChinaundercontractNo.49476278.severaldirectobservationsoftheKuroshionearTaiwanIsland.Forexample,thedirectcurrentmeasurementat(24'24'N1123'35'E)byinabaetal.(1981)showedtheapp…     

Rapid report of June 1, 2022 MW 5.9 Lushan earthquake,China with geodetic and teleseismic data

Timely response to earthquake characterization can facilitate earthquake emergency rescue and further scientific investigations. On June 1, 2022, M_W 5.9 earthquake occurred in the southern area of the Longmenshan fault zone. This event also happened at the south end of the Dayi seismic gap and is the largest earthquake that has occurred in this seismic gap since the 1970 M 6.2 event. The slip-distribution model constrained by the seismic waveforms suggests a thrust-dominated faulting mechanism. The main slip occurs at a depth of ～14 ?km, and the cumulative energy is released in the first 6 ?s. The variations of Coulomb stress caused by the mainshock show a positive change in the southwest area of the Dayi seismic gap, indicating possible activation of future earthquakes. In addition, we emphasize the importance of rapid estimation of deformation for near-field hazard delineation, especially when interferometric radar fails to image coseismic deformation in a high relief terrain.     

6种卫星降水产品在中国区域的精度特征评估

采用2012—2013年国家气象信息中心2419个国家级地面气象站格点化数据和TRMM(3B40RT、3B41RT、3B42RT)、CMORPH、GSMaP、HYDRO共6种0.25°×0.25°卫星反演降水数据,从中国区域、中国东部区域及中国西部区域3种空间尺度综合验证和比较了日尺度上卫星反演降水产品的精度。结果表明：春、夏、秋季卫星反演降水产品对降水描述的准确性高于冬季。相关性、均方根误差等指标随季节变化明显,且差异较大,夏季每种降水产品的评估指标均优于冬季。不同区域之间定量评估指标差异明显,具有月尺度变化特征。卫星反演降水产品对冬季小降水及固态降水的反演能力有限。对于中国区域的大范围降水事件,每种降水产品可以较好进行再现,但均以多传感器联合后的产品质量较高,单一微波、红外或可见光的效果较差。TRMM的3B42RT在夏季对降水反演的落区较好,但极值偏大,CMORPH的综合评价较好。卫星降水产品精度的空间分布与地形有一定的关系。     

概率密度匹配法对中国区域卫星降水资料的改进

为考察概率密度匹配法 (PDF方法) 对中国区域卫星反演降水产品系统误差订正的适用性,基于逐日和逐时我国地面观测降水量资料,引入PDF方法,分别对逐日0.25°×0.25°水平分辨率和逐时0.1°×0.1°水平分辨率的CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique) 卫星降水产品的系统误差进行订正。在分析CMORPH卫星降水产品误差特征的基础上,根据两种资料不同的时空分辨率和误差特点,调整概率密度匹配时选取样本的时间和空间范围,设计相应的订正方案。评估结果表明: PDF方法订正后, 两种分辨率卫星降水资料在中国区域系统误差均显著减小,达到了理想的订正效果。在我国站点稀疏的西部地区,订正后的CMORPH卫星降水产品仍保持卫星观测的降水空间分布,降水量也明显接近于地面观测降水量。可见,PDF方法是中国区域卫星反演降水产品系统误差订正的一种有效方法。     

基于雷达组网拼图的定量降水估测算法业务应用及效果评估

基于雷达组网实时的定量降水估测(QPE)及实时评估系统在浙江省杭州市气象局成功实现了业务应用,在评估雷达定量降水估测业务应用效果的同时,根据雷达反射率因子垂直廓线(VPR)特征,探讨分析了不同类型降水过程中雷达定量降水估测的误差源。系统联合杭州、宁波、舟山、温州、金华及衢州6部新一代天气雷达的基数据资料,以及覆盖浙江省且经反距离加权(Inverse Distance Weights,IDW)法实时质量控制的雨量计观测资料,采用先雷达组网拼图再降水估测的方案,集成Z-R关系法和最优插值法反演与校准雷达定量降水估测数据场。4次不同类型降水过程的评估结果表明:(1)在地物遮挡严重的浙江西北部和雷达覆盖较差的浙江南部,降水估测的雷达反射率因子如果源于0℃层亮带,会导致雷达定量降水估测严重高估;如果源于浅薄层云云系的云顶,会造成雷达定量降水估测严重低估。(2)多种降水类型云系并存,但使用相对单一的Z-R关系,会导致梅雨和台风期间雷达定量降水估测的局部高估或低估。(3)伴随飑线系统的强对流以及台风系统的非对称性也是导致雷达定量降水估测误差的重要原因。(4)联合Z-R关系和最优插值法,有效地降低了雷达定量降水估测的系统误差,但仍然存在大量的局部误差。     

同化雷达估算降水率对暴雨预报的影响

选取2009年3月28日广东省广州市大暴雨过程,考察了变分校准前后Z-I关系估算雷达降水率的区别。变分校准后的降水率资料具有较高的单点精度与合理的梯度分布。降水率资料能够反映大气动力特征和水汽分布等重要信息,是模拟中小尺度系统的关键因子。基于GRAPES (Global/Regional Analysis and Prediction System) 区域三维变分系统,将FSU (Florida State University) 对流参数化方案作为观测算子的同化试验指出,同化降水率资料后同时增强了低层大气的辐合和高层大气的辐散,从而使整层气柱的不稳定能量增加。沙氏指数和K指数诊断分析也表明,同化降水率资料后有利于触发强对流天气。此外,低空辐合有利于水汽垂直输送,维持对流发展,改进降水模拟。逐小时数值模拟结果表明:同化校准后的雷达估算降水率不仅可以改进降水分布,而且使中尺度对流系统的发展和消亡清晰地表现出来。     

Regional differences in the Lateglacial climate of northern Europe based on coleopteran analysis

The termination of the Last Glaciation, the Lateglacial period, was characterised by highly unstable climates which, in northern Europe, oscillated between warm temperate and arctic conditions. Different indicators of past climate have provided contrasting views on the timing and intensity of these climatic changes. Here we present preliminary reconstructions of the thermal climate interpreted from subfossil coleopteran assemblages from Britain, Norway, Sweden and Poland, in which regional differences can be ascribed to the varying influence of, (a) the North Atlantic surface water temperatures, (b) the proximity of the Fennoscandian ice sheet and (c) the ice free continent. Quantification of the thermal climate enables these local differences to be resolved.