Comparison of spatial and aspatial logistic regression models for landmine risk mapping

Landmines continue to affect the lives of millions of people living in war-torn countries. One major challenge in humanitarian mine action (HMA) is finding new and integrated approaches to land release, which remains a slow and costly process. The use of geographic information systems (GIS) in HMA can improve the land release process by efficient mapping and prioritizing of landmine risk areas. This study explores the usage of aspatial and spatial regression techniques to construct a predictive geo-statistical model for landmine risk mapping in a small 160 km² municipality in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and a large 4500 km² region in Colombia. The first application of logistic geographically weighted regression to landmine risk mapping is presented. The results show that in the BiH study area, the effect of local parameters that influence the distribution of landmine risk varies significantly across the study area. Conversely, in the Colombia case study the effect of explanatory variables remains more homogeneous over the study area. We produced two landmine risk maps for each study area, based on aspatial and spatial regression models. Risk maps are classified into five classes, i.e. very low, low, medium, high, and very high risk. The landmine risk maps created through the usage of these innovative methodologies improve the assessment of risk and prioritization of the land release process in mine-contaminated areas, compared to existing approaches.     

Collective action problems posed by no-take zones

Around 0.04% of the world's marine area is presently designated as no-take zone (NTZ), in which all fishing is banned. The IUCN, backed by many marine fisheries and ecology scientists, has called for this to be increased to 20–30% by 2012 in order to conserve fish stocks and marine biodiversity. This ambitious target presents a number of collective action problems (CAPs) that must be addressed and overcome if fishers and other relevant actors are to collaborate towards its achievement. These are discussed, drawing on the common-pool resource (CPR) literature, with particular reference to those raised by divergent aims, predictability, different knowledges, role of advocacy, locality, level of decision-making and enforceability. As NTZs are ultimately about altering the behaviour of humans, it is argued that studies based on social sciences, on how NTZs can be designed, implemented and enforced on a collective basis, are essential.     

控制流水波痕的外部地质作用

流水波痕可以广泛发育在不同的海、陆相环境中。对流水波痕的研究不能仅仅注意沉积作用方面，更要注意作用于流水波痕的外部条件。     

河口、海岸环境下床沙输运的初步实验研究

量测了在水深0.5m的情况下波浪、水流通过水平沙床所产生的床沙输移。实验波高为0.15m，周期分别为1.4和2.0s。首先量测纯波浪下的床沙输移，然后量测波流共同作用下，水流与波浪行进方向一致其稳定速度分别为0.02,0.04,0.06m/s时的床沙输移，结果表明，2个沙槽所得的总输沙率在波周期2.0s时最大，净输沙率在波周期1.4s时最大，将波叠加在速度为0.02m/s的水流上时，2种波型的净输沙率都增加约1倍，水流为0.04m/s和0.06m/s时2种波型的净输沙率分别都减少。     

Régimes des flux des matières solides en suspension au Cameroun: revue et synthèse à l’échelle des principaux écosystèmes; diversité climatique et actions anthropiques / Regimes of suspended sediment flux in Cameroon: review and synthesis for the main ecosystems; climatic diversity and anthropogenic activities

Abstract

Abstract Since the end of the 1950s, suspended matter measurements have been carried out in the streams and rivers of Cameroon. Despite the fact that these are often point measurements, they provide a framework for a global approach towards studying the regimes of suspended sediment transport in these rivers. The objective here is to assess the intensity of sediment transport and to determine the principal factors which influence it, according to the main climatic units. The influence of human activities is pointed out. It appears that steep slopes, population density, soil cultivation and cattle grazing are the essential factors. The sediment load in these rivers is increasing with latitude with 20–40 g m^-3 at the Equator, 80–100 g m^-3 in the transition zones and 150–160 g m^-3 in the dry tropical zones. The choice of drainage basin size for the characterisation of the rate of effective erosion is indispensable. In fact, in large drainage basins (5 × 10⁴ km²), there is an integration of heterogeneous geomorphological, phytogeographical, pedological and anthropogenic characteristics into average characteristics which do not show the influence of local conditions on sediment transport.     

Towards practitioner-initiated interactive knowledge development for sustainable development: A cross-case analysis of three coastal projects

Although the central challenges of sustainable development are well-known, sustainability science has been slow in contributing to effective and feasible solutions for sustainable development. Turning knowledge into action for sustainable development therefore remains a major challenge for sustainability science. Interactive knowledge development is considered a prerequisite for sustainability-oriented action. Most studies approach interactive knowledge development from a researcher's perspective. This paper focuses on practitioners that initiate interactive knowledge development for sustainability-oriented actions. A cross-case analysis is presented for interactive knowledge development in coastal projects. Three cases are analysed through the framework of project arrangements and knowledge arrangements. The projects are located in the Wadden Sea, San Francisco Bay and the Ems estuary and address issues of flood control, nature restoration and liveability. The cross-case analysis revealed 11 causal mechanisms that help explain how project decision-making impacts on interactive knowledge development, how a process of interactive knowledge development functions and what its outcomes are. The mechanisms clarify the key underlying processes of interactive knowledge development in coastal projects. The mechanisms show that interactive knowledge development may result in sustainability-oriented solutions that are feasible for implementation. As such, this paper contributes to a practice-oriented understanding of turning knowledge into action for sustainable coastal development.     

聚煤期植物作用下的煤系旋回沉积

煤系特征的还原色和突发性、阶段性间断—充填相间的非渐变旋回沉积,明显不同于其他沉积地层。为探究其成因,引用“将今论古”原理,一方面,调查现代植物的生存潜力,植物对地表碎屑的稳固作用,以及植物涵养水源、调节气候等宏观环境效应;另一方面,通过古生物、地层、煤系、煤层、煤质等研究成果,分析地质历史时期植物的发生、发展、繁盛、衰落的演替历程,以及各聚煤期的形成演化。运用比较沉积学方法将二者分阶段不同功能进行类比,经过一系列证据链推演,推导出聚煤期是植物演替更新后发展到鼎盛阶段的产物,当时的植物异常繁盛,具有强劲的拓殖能力和群体效应。各聚煤期植物规模化发展,已经从脆弱的遭受河流、海浪、潮汐等流体的冲刷、改造的被动阶段,回归到主动限制河流的侧蚀、迁移、汇聚,以及压制海浪、潮流的高度,是由个体生存发展为群体效应的过程,是从现代脆弱的植物生态反演到聚煤期强劲的控盆植被系统的依律回溯过程,是植物功能潜力的充分展现,是质的飞跃。聚煤期植被主导下,陆源碎屑库的累积和崩溃,控制盆地碎屑萎缩与扩张、煤系突发间断性沉积,致使煤层向盆缘分岔变薄以致尖灭、煤层中断续沉积角砾岩、同生多阶性带状砂体、陆表海多重障壁体系、约代尔旋回等特殊沉积。聚煤期植物作用的研究,填补了煤地质学空白,能够对煤地质勘查与研究中出现的一些异常现象给予合理的解释。     

聚煤期植物作用下的煤系旋回沉积

煤系特征的还原色和突发性、阶段性间断—充填相间的非渐变旋回沉积,明显不同于其他沉积地层。为探究其成因,引用“将今论古”原理,一方面,调查现代植物的生存潜力,植物对地表碎屑的稳固作用,以及植物涵养水源、调节气候等宏观环境效应;另一方面,通过古生物、地层、煤系、煤层、煤质等研究成果,分析地质历史时期植物的发生、发展、繁盛、衰落的演替历程,以及各聚煤期的形成演化。运用比较沉积学方法将二者分阶段不同功能进行类比,经过一系列证据链推演,推导出聚煤期是植物演替更新后发展到鼎盛阶段的产物,当时的植物异常繁盛,具有强劲的拓殖能力和群体效应。各聚煤期植物规模化发展,已经从脆弱的遭受河流、海浪、潮汐等流体的冲刷、改造的被动阶段,回归到主动限制河流的侧蚀、迁移、汇聚,以及压制海浪、潮流的高度,是由个体生存发展为群体效应的过程,是从现代脆弱的植物生态反演到聚煤期强劲的控盆植被系统的依律回溯过程,是植物功能潜力的充分展现,是质的飞跃。聚煤期植被主导下,陆源碎屑库的累积和崩溃,控制盆地碎屑萎缩与扩张、煤系突发间断性沉积,致使煤层向盆缘分岔变薄以致尖灭、煤层中断续沉积角砾岩、同生多阶性带状砂体、陆表海多重障壁体系、...     

Job losses and political acceptability of climate policies: why the ‘job-killing’ argument is so persistent and how to overturn it

Political acceptability is an essential issue in choosing appropriate climate policies. Sociologists and behavioural scientists recognize the importance of selecting environmental policies that have broad political support, while economists tend to compare different instruments first on the basis of their efficiency, and then by assessing their distributional impacts and thus their political acceptability. This paper examines case-study and empirical evidence that the job losses ascribed (correctly or incorrectly) to climate policies have substantial impacts on the willingness of affected workers to support these policies. In aggregate, the costs of these losses are significantly smaller than the benefits, both in terms of health and, probably, of labour market outcomes, but the losses are concentrated in specific areas, sectors and social groups that have been hit hard by the great recession and international competition. Localized contextual effects, such as peer group pressure, and politico-economic factors, such as weakened unions and tightened government budgets, amplify the strength and the persistence of the ‘job-killing’ argument. Compensating for the effects of climate policies on ‘left-behind’ workers appears to be the key priority to increase the political acceptability of such policies, but the design of compensatory policies poses serious challenges.

Key policy insights

• Public perception of, and support for, climate policies is substantially reduced in the presence of large negative shocks, especially job losses.

• Climate policies can be perceived as negative for employment, especially in areas where polluting industries represent a large share of employment and in occupations and sectors already damaged by globalization and automation.

• Policymakers should distinguish between small and large distributional effects of climate policies, and find the appropriate combination of revenue recycling schemes, industrial and retraining policies as well as compensation packages to increase the support for such policies.

     

冻融作用对不同初始状态基坑稳定性的影响研究

为研究季节冻土区冻融作用对基坑工程的影响,基于考虑冰-水相变的热传导理论、考虑黏聚力的修正剑桥模型和强度折减法,建立了适用于季节冻土区基坑稳定性分析的计算平台。在此基础上,结合具体的试验数据对不同初始状态的基坑算例进行计算,研究季节冻土区基坑冻融前后稳定性和位移的变化情况,并根据土体冻融前后的物理力学参数对上述变化规律作出分析。研究结果表明,冻融作用加剧季节冻土区基坑的局部变形,且土体的初始干重度对变形规律的影响较大,但基坑的整体安全系数并未受到冻融作用的显著影响。存在一个临界干重度γ_d0,基坑土体的初始干重度接近临界干重度时,围护桩水平位移在冻融前后的变化较小,随着土体初始干重度与临界干重度的差距增大,围护桩水平位移在冻融前后的变化量也随之增大。土体的初始干重度越小,基坑围护桩的竖向位移和坑底隆起位移在冻融前后的变化量越大,即土体初始干重度较小的基坑在经历冻融后,围护桩的竖向位移产生显著沉降,但坑底隆起情况有明显缓解。研究成果对季节冻土区基坑工程的设计和施工具有重要意义。