地貌灾害预测预报的基本问题——以泥石流预测预报为例

从地貌灾害的定义入手，阐述了地貌灾害预测预报需要解决的四个基本问题、解决这四个问题的二种途径，以及进行预测预报的四种方法。以泥石流为例，论述了泥石流预测预报的现状及其热点、难点和可能的突破点，以及目前和今后一段时期的切人点和研究重点。综述了国内外对泥石流小尺度空间预测，规模预测，时间预测，包括重现期预测、降雨预测和危险度预测的一系列有实用价值的经验公式及其在应用中存在的问题。阐明了灾害评价和预测预报在灾害学研究中的重要地位。     

Formation and failure of volcanic debris dams in the Chakachatna River valley associated with eruptions of the Spurr volcanic complex, Alaska

The formation of lahars and a debris avalanche during Holocene eruptions of the Spurr volcanic complex in south-central Alaska have led to the development of volcanic debris dams in the Chakachatna River valley. Debris dams composed of lahar and debris-avalanche deposits formed at least five times in the last 8000–10,000 years and most recently during eruptions of Crater Peak vent in 1953 and 1992. Water impounded by a large debris avalanche of early Holocene (?) age may have destabilized an upstream glacier-dammed lake causing a catastrophic flood on the Chakachatna River. A large alluvial fan just downstream of the debris-avalanche deposit is strewn with boulders and blocks and is probably the deposit generated by this flood. Application of a physically based dam-break model yields estimates of peak discharge (Q_p) attained during failure of the debris-avalanche dam in the range 10⁴<Q_p<10⁶ m³ s⁻¹ for plausible breach erosion rates of 10–100 m h⁻¹. Smaller, short-lived, lahar dams that formed during historical eruptions in 1953, and 1992, impounded smaller lakes in the upper Chakachatna River valley and peak flows attained during failure of these volcanic debris dams were in the range 10³<Q_p<10⁴ m³ s⁻¹ for plausible breach erosion rates.Volcanic debris dams have formed at other volcanoes in the Cook Inlet region, Aleutian arc, and Wrangell Mountains but apparently did not fail rapidly or result in large or catastrophic outflows. Steep valley topography and frequent eruptions at volcanoes in this region make for significant hazards associated with the formation and failure of volcanic debris dams.     

陆地表层地质环境质量综合评价与地质灾害系统分析——以广东沿海地带为例

将广东沿海陆地表层地质环境划分为构造稳定性、坡面稳定性和地基稳定性三个评价层面 ,其中包括由 9个指标构成的评价指标体系 ;确定了各指标的权重和五级分级标准和环境质量的五级标准 ;使用模糊数学综合评价模型将广东沿海 190个评价单元划分为 2 2个地质环境质量区。在灾害基本数据库和灾害时空分布分析的基础上 ,划分了 9个地质灾害一级分区及 32个二级分区 ,确定了地质环境、气候气象和人为活动因素三大类致灾主控因子 ;构造了三种地质灾害系统的概念模型和灾害预测指标体系框架 ,建立了地质灾害地理信息系统。     

Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses

One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatichazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evaluation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, communicationchannels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term prediction, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of information.     

An assessment of the risk from future eruptions of the Soufriere volcano of St. Vincent,West Indies

The Soufriere volcano is a 1220 m high stratovolcano which occupies the northern part of the island of St. Vincent. It is one of the most active centres of volcanism in the Caribbean and has a record of activity dating back to the Pleistocene. Historic eruptions (since 1718) have caused over 1600 deaths and resulted in damage to property valued in excess of 4.8 million USD. In addition, current development plans for the area point towards increased risk of disastrous consequences from future activity at the volcano.All aspects of risk relevant to the volcano, are discussed, with particular emphasis on the manner in which these are perceived and on the question of acceptable risk. A method is presented for use in risk assessment of volcanic hazard and a number of risk zones are defined for the Soufriere volcano. Numerical estimates of the relative loss expected within each zone are obtained from a consideration of the value of property at risk, its vulnerability to the hazardous volcanic events and the expected spatial impact of volcanic events. Such estimates suggest that the northern-most third of the island is at least ten times more at risk than areas further south. The likelihood of death and destruction is extreme in such high risk areas, while the most feasible method of loss reduction is evacuation before an eruption occurs.Formerly at Department of Earth Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom.     

遥感技术在吉林省地质灾害及其防治研究中的应用

总结和介绍发生在吉林省的地震、地裂缝、崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、地面塌陷、地面沉降、水土流失、陨石雨、沙漠化、盐碱化、沼泽化及洪涝灾害的特点、分布状况及形成机制,探讨了防治与减灾对策。以航、卫片解译查明各地质灾害的影象特征及分布范围,表明遥感技术在地质灾害的调查和监测中,具有重要意义。     

Natural hazards in British Columbia: an interdisciplinary and inter-institutional challenge

 Although British Columbia experiences many natural hazards, there is as yet no unified policy to promote natural hazard management in the province. The problem is not in the quantity and quality of geoscience assessment of natural hazards, but instead, it is suggested, in the isolation of that work from broader risk perspectives and in the lack of clarity of division of responsibilities between various levels of government. The example of recent changes in perception of the terrain stability problem illustrates how natural hazard problems are driven by social and political priorities rather than by geoscience priorities. Received: 22 November 1998 / Accepted: 22 November 1998     

略阳县地质灾害发育特征及其危险性初步评价

根据野外实地调查,描述并总结了陕西省略阳县地质灾害的发育特征。依据地质灾害点目前的稳定状态和潜在危害程度,定性评价了区内各地质灾害点的危险性。并利用地质灾害的重现性,基于各地质灾害点的危险程度,综合区内的地形地貌、地质条件和人为因素、气象水文条件,对略阳县地质灾害危险性进行了分区,其结果可为当地的土地规划和防灾减灾提供依据。     

地质灾害的非线性数据处理与建模技术

本文简略地介绍了几种地质灾害数据处理与建模的非线性方法,主要包括GMDH自组织建模技术、神经网络方法。GMDH是一种高阶非线性回归建模方法,它是以简单的二元二次回归方程为基础,通过"代复一代"的"生产"过程,客观、自动地求得实际资料的非线性模型。而神经网络则是用工程技术手段模拟生物神经网络的结构特征和功能特征的一类人工系统。与常规统计方法相比,神经网络最突出的优点为它是通过对网络的学习和训练,来掌握变量之间的非线性关系。因此,其处理复杂问题的能力更强大。实例检验效果表明,这些非线性数据处理与建模技术考虑了地质灾害问题的非线性特性,其比基于常规统计理论的数据处理方法的精度要高得多。     

测井曲线判识构造软煤技术预测煤与瓦斯突出

基于构造软煤与硬煤的物性差异,分析构造软煤分层在测井曲线上的响应特征;根据煤层段测井曲线的形态特征,将揭露区钻孔测井曲线初步判识的结果同钻孔邻近巷道煤壁观测的结果进行对比、验证,形成了一套测井曲线判识构造软煤技术。利用该技术获取了研究区的构造软煤资料,对研究区的煤与瓦斯突出危险性区域进行了预测。