Flooding of Sinking Creek,Garretts Spring karst drainage basin,Jessamine and Woodford counties,Kentucky, USA

Tashamingo Subdivision in Sinking Creek karst valley, a tributary of the Garretts Spring drainage basin in Jessamine and Woodford counties, Kentucky, was flooded in February 1989. To determine the cause of flooding, the groundwater basin boundary was mapped, discharge data were measured to determine intake capacity of swallets, and hydrologic modeling of the basin was conducted. Swallet capacity was determined to be limited by the hydraulic parameters of the conduit, rather than by obstruction by trash. Flooding from a precipitation event is more likely, and will be higher, when antecedent soil moisture conditions in the watershed are near saturation. Hydrologic modeling shows that suburban development of 20 percent of the southeast basin will cause a small increase in flood stage at Tashamingo Subdivision.     

Lightning fatalities in Australia, 1824–1991

Information on fatalities from lightning strikes has been extracted from a specially compiled database on natural hazards in Australia. Records dating from 1803–1991 indicate that at least 650 persons have been killed by lightning strikes. Maps and charts show the percentages of victims with respect to age, sex, locality, activity, and other circumstances of the strike. The majority of the 650 fatalities recorded have occurred along the more populous southeastern coast. The overall death rate, from 1910–1989, is 0.08 per 100 000 population. The annual number of lightning fatalities has decreased with time, from a death rate of 0.21 in 1910–1919 to 0.01 in 1980–1989. This trend is more pronounced when population figures are taken into account. The group that has been most at risk in Australia is that of males aged 15–19, followed by males aged 20–34. The male:female ratio of victims has decreased with time but is not approaching equality, being 11.6 in 1910–1919 and 5.3 in 1980–1989. The diurnal and monthly occurrences of lightning fatalities peak at 12.00–18.00 hours and November-February respectively. About 86% of fatalities have occurred outdoors and 14% have occurred indoors. Approximately three-fifths of fatalities have been work-related, and the group of workers that has traditionally been most at risk is that of land-workers. Approximately one-fifth of fatalities have been recreation-related, although this proportion has been increasing with time. The recreational activities of water sports, golf, and cricket have had the greatest number of lightning fatalities. Comparisons are made between these data and the results of other similar studies, both in Australia and overseas.     

中国主要自然致灾因子的区域分异

依据１０２种自然致灾因子分布图，以县域为统计单元，建立了全国自然致灾因子数据库。在此基础上，绘制出中国自然致灾因子多度、相对强度、被灾指数图，进而分析了它们的区域分异，为进行中国自然灾害区划提供依据。     

Going Home: The Migration of Puerto Rican-Born Women from the United States to Puerto Rico*

This paper analyzes the migration of Puerto Rican-born women from the United States to Puerto Rico using longitudinal data. We hypothesize that sojourn length in the United States is a function of both structural (macro-level economic and cultural factors) and behavioral (micro-level life-cycle experiences and personal attributes) variables. We test these hypotheses by estimating a proportional hazards model. The parameter estimates of this model indicate that sojourn length in the United States, and thus the decision to return to Puerto Rico, is a function of wage trends and community characteristics on the mainland plus a number of individual attributes that include education, marriage, and childbirth.     

Use of GIS in Optimizing Timber Thinning Strategies in the Eastern Sierra Nevada*

This paper demonstrates the use of a Geographic Information System (GIS) to develop timber thinning strategies on the Kyburz Planning Area of the Tahoe National Forest in northeastern California. The primary criteria used in an assessment of selective thinning potential were forest health and fire hazard ratings. By eliminating environmentally sensitive, economically unfeasible, or low fire hazard areas from consideration, the use of GIS reduced the area that was considered appropriate for thinning by approximately 58%. GIS offers considerable potential for improving resource management strategies.     

Characteristics and mitigation of the snow avalanche hazard in Kaghan Valley,Pakistan Himalaya

Snow avalanche hazards in mountainous areas of developing countries have received scant attention in the scientific literature. The purpose of this paper is to describe this hazard and mitigative measures in Kaghan Valley, Pakistan Himalaya, and to review alternatives for future reduction of this hazard. Snow avalanches have long posed a hazard and risk to indigenous populations of the Himalaya and Trans-Himalaya mountains. Land use intensification due to population growth, new transportation routes, military activity and tourism is raising levels of risk. The history of land use in the study area is such that investigations of avalanche hazard must rely on different theoretical bases and data than in most industrialised countries. Despite the intensive use of valley-bottom land which is affected by avalanches, a number of simple measures are currently employed by the indigenous population to mitigate the hazard. Out-migration during the winter months is the most important one. During the intensive use period of summer avalanche-transported snow provides numerous resources for the population. In Kaghan the avalanche hazard is increasing primarily as a result of poorly located new buildings and other construction projects. The large scale of avalanche activity there rules out any significant improvement or protection of the currently difficult winter access. Instead, future mitigation of the hazard should focus on protecting the small number of winter inhabitants and minimising property damage.     

1988年澜沧—耿马地震的预报速报与对策

1988年11月6日,在云南省澜沧、耿马相继发生了7.6级、7.2级地震。这次地震前曾经作过准确的中长期预报。在1985年完成1986年出版的南北地震带未来十年地震危险性研究报告和预测图中,澜沧、耿马地区就是两个圈定的7级危险区中的一个。1986年该报告正式上报云南省人民政府。1987年起该区域为我省的地震危险性监视区。1988年除加强监视外,我们还加强了一系列大震对策措施的准备工作。1988年8月该区地震活动增强,我局派出的现场考察组向当地政府作了汇报,并指出该区仍存在着严重的地震危险性。与此同时,省局科技人员对该区作出了一系列不同程度的短期预报,并向当地打了招呼,当地政府采取了一定的措施。遗憾未能作出临震预报。大震发生后,我局昆明遥测台网仅7分钟定了位置和震级,并报告了国家地震局和省政府,及时为抗震救灾提供可靠的科学依据。震后2.5小时,现场监测队伍就出发了。在大震现场仅三天内就作出了地震趋势判断,也较好地作出了强余震的预报,有力地组织了地震考察及地震知识宣传。这一系列的大震对策工作极大地推动了现场的抗震救灾工作,减轻了震灾的继续发生及其带来的巨大的心理和社会影响。整个澜沧—耿马地震的预报、速报及大震对策工作在国内外都是一次较高水平的科学实践,得到了中央慰问团及     

陕蒙交界地区碎屑岩风化成因浅析

陕蒙交界地区基岩均具强风化,由此造成当地环境恶化、下游地区生态破坏和灾害积累。其形成机理应与岩石本身的物质组成、自然地理环境、地质构造状况、水文地质条件及其物理化学条件有关。而南部地区,由于上述诸因素的差别,基岩风化微弱。     

福建省矿山开采引发的地质灾害及防治建议

福建省矿产资源较丰富，各种规模矿山14000多座，为我省经济建设发挥了重要作用，由于粗放型开采，也引发了矿山地质灾害，造成多起伤亡事故和严重经济损失，同时引发社会安定问题。为此提出防治建议。