Environmental impacts from mining at Taojiang Mn ore deposit, central Hunan, China

The Taojiang Mn ore deposit was exploited in the early 1960s, and waste rocks were developed since then. Because the Mn ores were hosted within the metal-enriched black shales （Peng et al., 2004）, the continuous mining has led to the exposure of an immense quality of black shales, which might cause serious impacts on environments. The present study deals with this environmental issue with samples from the waste rocks, and from the surrounding soils and surface water. The mineralogy of the waste rock was studied using EMPA, then a large number of elements in all waste rock, soil, and water samples were analyzed at a wide range of concentrations with high accuracy using an Elan6000 ICP-MS machine at Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The waste rock is composed mostly of black shales, with minor Mn carbonates. Both black shales and Mn carbonates of the waste rock contain many sulfide minerals, mainly pyrite, with minor galena, sphalerite, chalcopyrite, and others. The waste rocks are enriched in many metals including Sc, V, Cr, Co, Ni, Fe, Mn, Cu, Zn, Pb, Th, U, Mo, Sb, Sn, Tl, and others, and the metals are mostly hosted within the sulfides. Weathering of waste rocks might cause emission of the following metals： V, Cd, Ni, Th, U, Mo, Sb, Tl, Sc, Cr, Cu, Zn, Sn, and minor Co, and Pb. The surrounding soils are highly enriched in Cr, Co, Cu, Zn, Mn, Mo, Cd, Tl, and Pb, with the enrichment factors of 2.67.3.8, 7.26, 7.27, 8.2, 5.7, 13, and 5.4, respectively. The element ratios （Rb/Cs, Fe/Mn, Nb/Zr, Hf/Zr, and Ba/Sr） and REE distribution patterns of the soils are similar to those of the waste rocks and bedrocks.     

Testing earthquake prediction methods: «The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8»

Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered.     

A laboratory experiment to monitor the contact state of a fault by transmission waves

We performed a series of laboratory experiments in which elastic waves were transmitted across a simulated fault. Two types of experiments were carried out: (1) Normal Stress Holding Test (NSHT): normal stress was kept constant for about 3 h without shear stress and transmission waves were observed. (2) Shear Stress Increasing Test (SSIT): shear stress was gradually increased until a stick-slip event occurred. Transmission waves were continuously observed throughout the process of stress accumulation. We focused on the change in transmission waves during the application of shear stress and especially during precursory slips.It was found in NSHT that the amplitude of transmission waves linearly increased with the logarithm of stationary contact time. The increase amounted to a few percent after about 3 h. Creep at asperity contacts is responsible for this phenomenon. From a theoretical consideration, it was concluded that the real contact area increased with the logarithm of stationary contact time.We observed in SSIT a significant increase in wave amplitude with shear stress application. This phenomenon cannot be attributed to the time effect observed in NSHT. Instead, it can be explained by the mechanism of “junction growth” proposed by Tabor. Junction growth yields an increase in real contact area. It is required for junction growth to occur that the material in contact is already plastic under a purely normal loading condition. A computer simulation confirmed that this requirement was satisfied in our experiments. We also found that the rate at which the amplitude increased was slightly reduced prior to a stick-slip event. The onset time of the reduction well coincides with the onset of precursory slip. The cause of the reduction is attributed to the reset of stationary contact time due to displacement. This interpretation is supported by the result of NSHT. Taking the time of stationary contact in SSIT into account, we may expect the change in wave amplitude to be, at most, only a few percent. The observed slight reduction in increasing rate is, in this sense, reasonable. The static stiffness of the fault also decreases with precursory slip. It was also found that low frequency waves are a better indicator of precursory slip than high frequency waves. This might suggest that low frequency waves with longer wavelength are a better indicator of average behavior of faults. The problem, however, merits a further investigation. The shifts in phase were also found to be a good indicator of the change in contact state of the fault. The changes in both amplitude and phase of transmission waves are unifyingly understood through the theory of transmission coefficient presented by Pyrak-Nolte et al. Rough surfaces have a tendency to give larger stick-slips than smooth surfaces. The amount of precursory slip is larger for rough surfaces than for smooth surfaces. Although it was confirmed by a computer simulation that rough surfaces have larger contact diameters than smooth surfaces, the rigorous relationship between the surface roughness (contact diameter) and the amount of precursory slips was not established.     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Towards Formulation of a Space-borne System for Early Warning of Floods: Can Cost-Effectiveness Outweigh Prediction Uncertainty?

The three most important components necessary for functioning of an operational flood warning system are: (1) a rainfall measuring system; (2) a soil moisture updating system; and, (3) a surface discharge measuring system. Although surface based networks for these systems can be largely inadequate in many parts of the world, this inadequacy particularly affects the tropics, which are most vulnerable to flooding hazards. Furthermore, the tropical regions comprise developing countries lacking the financial resources for such surface-based monitoring. The heritage of research conducted on evaluating the potential for measuring discharge from space has now morphed into an agenda for a mission dedicated to space-based surface discharge measurements. This mission juxtaposed with two other upcoming space-based missions: (1) for rainfall measurement (Global Precipitation Measurement, GPM), and (2) soil moisture measurement (Hydrosphere State, HYDROS), bears promise for designing a fully space-borne system for early warning of floods. Such a system, if operational, stands to offer tremendous socio-economic benefit to many flood-prone developing nations of the tropical world. However, there are two competing aspects that need careful assessment to justify the viability of such a system: (1) cost-effectiveness due to surface data scarcity; and (2) flood prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in the remote sensing measurements. This paper presents the flood hazard mitigation opportunities offered by the assimilation of the three proposed space missions within the context of these two competing aspects. The discussion is cast from the perspective of current understanding of the prediction uncertainties associated with space-based flood prediction. A conceptual framework for a fully space-borne system for early-warning of floods is proposed. The need for retrospective validation of such a system on historical data comprising floods and its associated socio-economic impact is stressed. This proposal for a fully space-borne system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary effort as recommended herein, promises to enhance the utility of the three space missions more than what their individual agenda can be expected to offer.     

Verification of the motion fields over Southeast Asia by the Florida State University (FSU) superensemble forecast

The Florida State University (FSU) multimodel superensemble forecast is evaluated against several other operational weather models for the Southeast Asia region. The superensemble technique has demonstrated its exceptional skills in forecasting precipitation, motion and mass fields compared to either individual global operational or ensemble mean forecasts. The motion field investigation for the season of 2001 reveals that the superensemble forecasts are closer to the observed data compared to the other global member operational models through its low systematic errors at the 850 hPa level. The FSU multimodel superensemble forecasts exhibit the lowest root mean square errors (RSMEs), the highest correlation against the best observed data and the lowest systematic errors compared to the other operational model members. These forecasts have the potential to provide better daily weather predictions over the Southeast Asia region, particularly during the early northeast monsoon that often causes heavy rainfall in the equatorial part of the Southeast Asia region.     

鄂尔多斯盆地北部底河道砂岩型铀矿地质特征

鄂尔多斯盆地北部直罗组中的铀矿,是典型的产于河道中的砂岩铀矿,该矿床发育较好的卷状矿体。通过对该铀矿地质特征的研究,认识到发育卷状矿体的底河道砂岩型铀矿必须具备两大条件:其一是成矿砂体条件,即砂体要有较好的成层性、连通性和渗透性;其二是地层结构条件,即砂体必须存在较好的上、下隔水岩层。就砂体而言,河流相辫状沉积砂体是形成卷状矿体的主要砂体,并且以具有从辫状河向曲流河完整演化的辫状沉积砂体较好。砂体的上、下隔水岩层则有多种表现形式:下隔水层可由不透水的基岩或湖相沉积泥岩等构成;上隔水层由不透水的湖相泥岩、曲流沉积地层或岩浆岩等构成。在层间氧化作用过程上,存在纵横两个方向的氧化,即存在与河道方向一致的纵向氧化和与河道垂直的横向氧化,两种氧化作用成矿常叠加形成复杂的矿体类型;在矿化赋存的部位上,铀砂体通常发育在基底之上或不同建造之间;在古气候演变上,成矿作用发生在干旱气候条件下,或由潮湿向干旱的气候转变阶段。     

深部找铀及湘南-桂北地区深部找铀潜景分析

概述了国内外深部找矿的研究成果,指出深部找矿是当今发展的趋势。国内外重大矿产的成功发掘,其深度均在千米以上,铀矿化垂向分布深度可达4 km以上。综合介绍了国内外勘查深大矿床的特点和条件,认为岩石-构造条件是深部矿化定位的重要因素,复式岩体、成矿系统的垂向变化、构造地球物理-地球化学异常模型是深部找矿的关键依据。综述了中国南方湘南—桂北地区深部找铀的有利地质构造条件和潜力,成矿流体是该区铀矿化的根源,白垩—第三纪重大地质事件是该区深部铀成矿的重要前提,重大地质事件引发的NE-NNE,NW向深大断裂及断陷盆地是铀矿化赋存的重要场所和勘查靶区。在已知铀矿田、成矿带勘查范围基础上,在该区进行深部探索将会获得重大突破。探讨了湘南—桂北地区深部找铀的勘查思路和方法。     

基于预测的边缘检测方法

提出了一种基于预测的、有一定自适应性的边缘检测方法。介绍了其原理和算法实现过程。通过计算两个相邻像素的灰度值的均值、均方差和梯度来预测下一个像素的灰度值，比较预测值和真实值来判断下一个像素是否是边界点。通过与现有同类算法的比较，证明了该算法的优越性。     

地震属性分析中水平切片的应用

利用地震数据体中含有的丰富地质信息,可以有效地进行储层预测。层拉平水平切片地层学解释方法是先将地震剖面目的层段做层拉平处理,然后对切片顺地层层面追踪,勾绘出各种地层现象,并以地层学的观点加以解释。该方法在吉林探区扶新南部地区的应用中,对于识别河道的展布趋势取得了较好的效果,而且发现了多期叠置的扇型沉积体。另外,还可指导反演数据体的解释,做到对岩性体从定性到定量的描述。