Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes with identified stress accumulation pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.     

Environmental impacts from mining at Taojiang Mn ore deposit, central Hunan, China

The Taojiang Mn ore deposit was exploited in the early 1960s, and waste rocks were developed since then. Because the Mn ores were hosted within the metal-enriched black shales （Peng et al., 2004）, the continuous mining has led to the exposure of an immense quality of black shales, which might cause serious impacts on environments. The present study deals with this environmental issue with samples from the waste rocks, and from the surrounding soils and surface water. The mineralogy of the waste rock was studied using EMPA, then a large number of elements in all waste rock, soil, and water samples were analyzed at a wide range of concentrations with high accuracy using an Elan6000 ICP-MS machine at Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The waste rock is composed mostly of black shales, with minor Mn carbonates. Both black shales and Mn carbonates of the waste rock contain many sulfide minerals, mainly pyrite, with minor galena, sphalerite, chalcopyrite, and others. The waste rocks are enriched in many metals including Sc, V, Cr, Co, Ni, Fe, Mn, Cu, Zn, Pb, Th, U, Mo, Sb, Sn, Tl, and others, and the metals are mostly hosted within the sulfides. Weathering of waste rocks might cause emission of the following metals： V, Cd, Ni, Th, U, Mo, Sb, Tl, Sc, Cr, Cu, Zn, Sn, and minor Co, and Pb. The surrounding soils are highly enriched in Cr, Co, Cu, Zn, Mn, Mo, Cd, Tl, and Pb, with the enrichment factors of 2.67.3.8, 7.26, 7.27, 8.2, 5.7, 13, and 5.4, respectively. The element ratios （Rb/Cs, Fe/Mn, Nb/Zr, Hf/Zr, and Ba/Sr） and REE distribution patterns of the soils are similar to those of the waste rocks and bedrocks.     

Testing earthquake prediction methods: «The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8»

Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered.     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Towards Formulation of a Space-borne System for Early Warning of Floods: Can Cost-Effectiveness Outweigh Prediction Uncertainty?

The three most important components necessary for functioning of an operational flood warning system are: (1) a rainfall measuring system; (2) a soil moisture updating system; and, (3) a surface discharge measuring system. Although surface based networks for these systems can be largely inadequate in many parts of the world, this inadequacy particularly affects the tropics, which are most vulnerable to flooding hazards. Furthermore, the tropical regions comprise developing countries lacking the financial resources for such surface-based monitoring. The heritage of research conducted on evaluating the potential for measuring discharge from space has now morphed into an agenda for a mission dedicated to space-based surface discharge measurements. This mission juxtaposed with two other upcoming space-based missions: (1) for rainfall measurement (Global Precipitation Measurement, GPM), and (2) soil moisture measurement (Hydrosphere State, HYDROS), bears promise for designing a fully space-borne system for early warning of floods. Such a system, if operational, stands to offer tremendous socio-economic benefit to many flood-prone developing nations of the tropical world. However, there are two competing aspects that need careful assessment to justify the viability of such a system: (1) cost-effectiveness due to surface data scarcity; and (2) flood prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in the remote sensing measurements. This paper presents the flood hazard mitigation opportunities offered by the assimilation of the three proposed space missions within the context of these two competing aspects. The discussion is cast from the perspective of current understanding of the prediction uncertainties associated with space-based flood prediction. A conceptual framework for a fully space-borne system for early-warning of floods is proposed. The need for retrospective validation of such a system on historical data comprising floods and its associated socio-economic impact is stressed. This proposal for a fully space-borne system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary effort as recommended herein, promises to enhance the utility of the three space missions more than what their individual agenda can be expected to offer.     

Verification of the motion fields over Southeast Asia by the Florida State University (FSU) superensemble forecast

The Florida State University (FSU) multimodel superensemble forecast is evaluated against several other operational weather models for the Southeast Asia region. The superensemble technique has demonstrated its exceptional skills in forecasting precipitation, motion and mass fields compared to either individual global operational or ensemble mean forecasts. The motion field investigation for the season of 2001 reveals that the superensemble forecasts are closer to the observed data compared to the other global member operational models through its low systematic errors at the 850 hPa level. The FSU multimodel superensemble forecasts exhibit the lowest root mean square errors (RSMEs), the highest correlation against the best observed data and the lowest systematic errors compared to the other operational model members. These forecasts have the potential to provide better daily weather predictions over the Southeast Asia region, particularly during the early northeast monsoon that often causes heavy rainfall in the equatorial part of the Southeast Asia region.     

深部找铀及湘南-桂北地区深部找铀潜景分析

概述了国内外深部找矿的研究成果,指出深部找矿是当今发展的趋势。国内外重大矿产的成功发掘,其深度均在千米以上,铀矿化垂向分布深度可达4 km以上。综合介绍了国内外勘查深大矿床的特点和条件,认为岩石-构造条件是深部矿化定位的重要因素,复式岩体、成矿系统的垂向变化、构造地球物理-地球化学异常模型是深部找矿的关键依据。综述了中国南方湘南—桂北地区深部找铀的有利地质构造条件和潜力,成矿流体是该区铀矿化的根源,白垩—第三纪重大地质事件是该区深部铀成矿的重要前提,重大地质事件引发的NE-NNE,NW向深大断裂及断陷盆地是铀矿化赋存的重要场所和勘查靶区。在已知铀矿田、成矿带勘查范围基础上,在该区进行深部探索将会获得重大突破。探讨了湘南—桂北地区深部找铀的勘查思路和方法。     

铅锌矿床Rb-Sr定年研究综

本文在总结Rb-Sr等时线定年的基本前提和矿床Rb-Sr等时线定年存在的问题的基础上,综述了铅锌矿床流体包裹体和闪锌矿Rb-Sr等时线定年的研究进展,同时对该定年方法存在的问题进行了简要评述。综合分析表明,Rb-Sr等时线定年(尤其是闪锌矿Rb-Sr等时线定年)为铅锌矿床较理想的直接定年方法,但该定年方法还存在许多理论和技术问题,有待深入研究;铅锌矿床Rb-Sr等时线定年应以深入细致的地质、地球化学研究为基础,定年过程中必须严慎对待样品采集、样品挑选、流体包裹体溶液提取和质谱分析等各个环节。     

非常规综合物化探油气预测研究

非常规综合物化探方法油气预测研究中存在的主要问题为：缺乏系统与综合的基础性理论研究，异常形成的机理还不十分清楚，在参数的优化组合及异常的求取上尚有诸多不足。针对后一种情况，选择松辽盆地东岭构造作为实验区进行了有益的探索。选取低能吸附烃、放射性测氡及土壤热释光三类参数进行了优化组合，分别计算了综合指标MAE与MAC及组合熵，然后对各值采用泛克里格法求取异常，取得了良好的效果。下一步研究应从异常形成的机理入手，建立三维非常规综合物化探油气预测模式，以提高油气预测成功率。     

成矿流体演化与成矿物理化学

成矿流体是富含挥发分 (CO2 、CH4等 )是具有较高含盐度的特殊地质流体。本文讨论了在流体演化过程中挥发分的来源 ,指出主要来自水岩作用、有机质分解及地幔去气和岩浆 ;碱金属及卤素同样具有多来源的性质 ,以海水、含盐系淋滤、建造水为主要来源 ,含盐系重熔可以形成富含碱金属的成矿流体。流体演化过程中氢氧同位素、硫同位素的分馏主要与温度、水岩比值或硫源丰度有关。一个重要的结论是 ,成矿流体的形成主要与地质作用有关 ,而流体来源是次要的。海底热水流体的地球化学特征以高δ3 4 S值、中稀土富集及正铕异常为特征。本文总结了热水流体成矿物理化学条件 ,指出水热流体物相点 :1) 10 80℃ ,7.5× 10 8Pa水溶液与硅酸岩熔浆分熔点 ;2 )水溶液的第二个临界点是气水溶液的超临界点 (374.15℃ ,2 .2 1× 10 7Pa) ;3)水溶液的沸点 (≥ 10 0℃ ,≥ 1× 10 5Pa) ;4)水溶液的冰点 (≤ 0℃ ,1× 10 5Pa) ;5 )H2 O CO2 体系的不混溶温度点 (2 6 6℃ ,2 .15×10 8Pa[1 3 ] 等是重要的成矿相变点。