空气密度对PG7607活塞压力计测量结果的影响

由于空气密度测量的影响所引入的不确定度分量是活塞压力计测量结果不确定度的主要组成部分之一.本文针对PG7607基准级活塞压力计通过公式推导分析了这种影响的程度,结果表明:空气密度对于该活塞压力计测量结果的影响与使用地点环境大气的温湿压状态有关;与使用地点环境大气温湿压测量结果的不确定度有关;针对实验室条件,在全国范围内...     

NCEP、ECMWF及CMC全球集合预报业务系统发展综述

总结了目前最具代表性的3个全球集合预报系统（global ensemble forecast system,GEFS）——美国国家环境预报中心（National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP）、欧洲中期天气预报中心（European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF）和加拿大气象中心（Canadian Meteoro-logical Centre,CMC）建成至今的发展概况。由于计算资源的不断扩展,各中心集合预报系统的模式分辨率、集合成员数也随之增加。同时各中心都在不断地致力于发展和完善初始和模式扰动方法,来更好地估计与初值和模式有关的不确定性,促进预报技巧的提高。其中初始扰动方法从最初的奇异向量法（ECMWF）、增殖向量法（NCEP）和观测扰动法（CMC）更新为现在的集合资料同化—奇异向量法（ECMWF）、重新尺度化集合转换法（NCEP）和集合卡尔曼滤波（CMC）。在估计模式不确定性方面,ECMWF和CMC都修订了各自的随机参数化方案和多参数化方案,NCEP最近也在模式中加入了随机全倾向扰动。为提高全球高影响天气预报的准确率,TIGGE计划（the THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble）的提出增进了国际间对多模式、多中心集合预报的合作研究,北美集合预报系统（North American ensemble forecast system,NAEFS）为建立全球多模式集合预报系统提供了业务框架,这都将有助于未来全球交互式业务预报系统的构建     

地面气候资料均一性研究进展

气象台站观测的地面气候资料是气候变化研究的重要基础,气候资料的均一性检验和订正对于提高气候资料的质量和均一性状况具有实用意义和价值.通过回顾近年来国内外地面气候资料均一性研究进展、研究技术及发展趋势,总结了目前国内广泛应用的两种较为成熟的均一化方法(RHtest和MASH)及其对气温、风速资料均一性研究取得的一些成果,...     

数字高程模型内插方法的分析和选择

在概略讨论地面曲面本身特性的基础上,指出地面曲面本身并非是具有较高光滑度的单纯曲面,而应看作为由结构线连接而成的低次曲面片组合;着重深入分析了地面已知数据的准确性,指出计算稳定性问题是采用内插DEM必须要重视的重要问题;同时还论述了内插方法必须要具有高程序同构特性的保证;相对而言,各种内插方法都具有一定的逼近性,在实际数据较为密集的条件下较为宽松。     

基于不同拟合方法的圆曲线综合不确定性模型

分别利用直线、圆曲线与多项式曲线的拟合空间曲线实体,估计出拟合曲线与真实曲线之间的模型误差,建立包含模型误差与法线方向位置误差的曲线综合误差带模型。并通过算例证明了含有模型误差的综合误差带模型能更好地反应圆曲线的位置不确定性。     

多元线性回归算法在井下三角高程测量中的应用研究

通过对井下三角高程测量的原理、误差来源及精度分析,指出钢尺量取仪器高和棱镜高的误差对三角高程测量结果的影响,提出一种利用多元线性回归减小该误差影响的算法,并通过实例对三角高程测量结果进行改正,验证该算法用于提高井下三角高程测量精度是可行的,并基本达到四等水准的要求.     

Diffuse and localized failure modes: Two competing mechanisms

The concept of failure is one of the most debated in soil mechanics, for two reasons essentially. First, this is a crucial issue in the engineering of structures and geotechnical project design. Second, this is still a challenging academic issue mobilizing significant scientific interest in the development of a unique framework to describe the different failure modes. In this respect, this paper revisits the localized failure mode, replacing the well‐known Rice criterion within the wider context of bifurcation. Considering a micro‐mechanical model, the main theoretical results are covered. In particular, it is established that localized failure is a particular case of failures observed within the so‐called bifurcation domain: the incremental strain within the localization band is associated with a vanishing value of the second‐order work. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

深圳市快速抑制COVID-19疫情的非药物干预措施效果评估：基于智能体的建模研究

在2020年COVID-19第一波疫情中,通过一系列非药物干预措施,国内许多城市实现了疫情的快速抑制。对这些交叉叠加的多项干预措施进行单项措施的效果评估,识别出关键的防控策略,能够为未来的疫情防控提供重要的经验与科学依据。本研究以深圳市为例,利用融合了多源时空轨迹大数据的空间显式智能体模型评估深圳市快速抑制第一波疫情的各项非药物干预措施效果,识别出核心措施与辅助措施。模拟结果显示,在深圳市第一波疫情中,单项干预措施有效性从高到低依次为居家令、综合隔离、佩戴口罩与分批复工。其中,居家令或综合隔离均能有效抑制疫情的大范围暴发,被本研究称之为核心措施;佩戴口罩或分批复工则只能从不同程度上降低总体感染规模并延缓疫情峰值,并不能抑制疫情暴发,被本研究称之为辅助措施。考虑到社会经济成本以及常态化防疫中人群依从性降低,本研究建议在COVID-19 散发疫情防控中将核心措施与辅助措施相结合,重点实施各项隔离措施,同时将外出佩戴口罩作为疫情常态化防控手段。此外,本研究展示了结合时空大数据与智能体模型精细化模拟城市内部传染病扩散过程的优势：不仅能在城市内部高精度推演疫情发展过程,而且能够支撑评估面向个体及各类型出行活动的非药物干预措施实施效果,为制定针对性、精细化的“时间-空间-人群”防控策略提供重要的科学依据。     

Matrix Corrections and Error Analysis in High‐Precision SIMS 18O/16O Measurements of Ca–Mg–Fe Garnet

We report technical and data treatment methods for making accurate, high‐precision measurements of ¹⁸O/¹⁶O in Ca–Mg–Fe garnet utilising the Cameca IMS 1280 multi‐collector ion microprobe. Matrix effects were similar to those shown by previous work, whereby Ca abundance is correlated with instrumental mass fractionation (IMF). After correction for this effect, there appeared to be no significant secondary effect associated with Mg/Fe²⁺ for routine operational conditions. In contrast, investigation of the IMF associated with Mn‐ or Cr‐rich garnet showed that these substitutions are significant and require a more complex calibration scheme. The Ca‐related calibration applied to low‐Cr, low‐Mn garnet was reproducible across different sample mounts and under a range of instrument settings and therefore should be applicable to similar instruments of this type. The repeatability of the measurements was often better than ± 0.2‰ (2s), a precision that is similar to the repeatability of bulk techniques. At this precision, the uncertainties due to spot‐to‐spot repeatability were at the same magnitude as those associated with matrix corrections (± 0.1–0.3‰) and the uncertainties in reference materials (± 0.1–0.2‰). Therefore, it is necessary to accurately estimate and propagate uncertainties associated with these parameters – in some cases, uncertainties in reference materials or matrix corrections dominate the uncertainty budget.     

Evaluation of In Situ Heterogeneity of Elements in Solids: Implications for Analytical Geochemistry

A general method for the evaluation of in situ heterogeneity of geochemical materials is described and the significance of the results discussed, by using three case studies and earlier data sets. The heterogeneity of Pb in soil (expressed as RSD due to sampling, RSD_samp) varies from < 5 to > 100% between different sites, in a way that relates to the mode of deposition of the element. The heterogeneity of an element also varies systematically as a function of the distance scale at some sites. This variation can be modelled using linear regression, accounting for over 90% of the experimental variance, at seven scales over three orders of magnitude. Variation in heterogeneity between elements at the same site, seems to be somewhat diagnostic of the origin of the element, lithogenic being less than anthropogenic, although the later is also being modified by the mode of deposition. Where the heterogeneity is large (RSD > 30%), it is proposed that it can be expressed more accurately as a heterogeneity factor (10^GSDsamp), to reflect its frequency distribution, which is positively skewed towards higher concentration values.