石墨炉原子吸收法测定土壤中痕量金检出限的不确定度分析

根据石墨炉原子吸收光谱法对土壤中痕量金进行测定,选取金系列标准浓度测量质量—吸光度工作曲线,连续测定多次空白溶液的吸光度值,计算检出限。通过对其检出限的不确定度的分析,确定了检出限不确定度的因素,计算出其扩展不确定度。能比较直观地了解选择的测试条件、建立的分析方法是否达到现行的相关标准及其灵敏度的要求。     

CO2深部咸水层封存选址的地质评价

深部咸水层封存是目前最具前景的CO2地质封存方式。本文通过调研CO2地质封存相关文献，对CO2咸水层封存选址地质评价依据进行分类，总结咸水层封存涉及的定量研究方法并探讨目前CO2地质封存中的不确定性问题。主要认识有：① CO2咸水层封存选址的地质依据可根据在评价中的作用分为两类，第一类是用于可行性评价的通用依据，第二类是用于进一步筛选优选靶区的封存适宜性和安全性指标，其中封存适宜性评价针对的是更加细致的储层特征（相较于可行性评价），而安全性评价则集中在盖层适宜性、场地地震安全性、水文地质条件、地面场地地质条件、储层盖层空间分布和构造六个方面；② 封存潜力评价方面，大范围的可行性评价可首选资料要求较低的面积法进行封存潜力评价，对小范围的优选靶区采取精度更高的容积法和包含更多封存机制的容量系数法；③ 目前CO2地质封存中的不确定性问题主要在于相同依据在不同评价方面产生的不同影响、CO2- 水- 岩反应对储集物性的影响、研究发现的特殊现象、多场耦合模拟研究不系统以及封存潜力计算中参数不确定问题。     

硅钼黄分光光度法测定地下水中偏硅酸的不确定度评定

采用不确定度连续传递模型,对硅钼黄分光光度法测定地下水中偏硅酸(DZ/T0064.62—93)的不确定度进行评定。测量结果的不确定度主要来源于标准溶液引入的不确定度、曲线拟合产生的不确定度和测量过程引入的不确定度三部分,而二氧化硅和偏硅酸的摩尔质量不确定度较小,可以忽略不计。采用双误差回归的方式对标准曲线进行拟合,在对各个不确定度分量进行量化的基础上,通过合成得到测量结果的标准不确定度,再乘以95%置信概率下的扩展因子2,得到测量结果的扩展不确定度。     

元胞自动机在城市模拟中的误差传递与不确定性的特征分析

元胞自动机(Cellular Automata,简称CA)已越来越多地用于地理现象的模拟中,如城市系统的演化等。城市模拟经常要使用GIS数据库中的空间信息,数据源中的误差将会通过CA模拟过程发生传递。此外,CA 模型只是对现实世界的近似模拟,这就使得其本身也具有不确定性。这些不确定因素将对城市模拟的结果产生较大的影响,有必要探讨CA在模拟过程中的误差传递与不确定性问题。本文采用蒙特卡罗方法模拟了CA误差的传递特征,并从转换规则、邻域结构、模拟时间以及随机变量等几个方面分析了CA不确定性产生的根源。发现与传统的GIS模型相比,城市CA模型中的误差和不确定性的很多性质是非常独特的。例如,在模拟过程中由于邻域函数平均化的影响,数据源误差将减小;随着可用的土地越来越少,该限制也使城市模拟的误差随时间而减小;模拟结果的不确定性主要体现在城市的边缘。这些分析结果有助于城市建模和规划者更好地理解CA建模的特点。     

几种典型地表粗糙度计算方法的比较研究

本文分别利用最小二乘拟合迭代法、牛顿迭代法、TVM法和Martano法计算2003年长白山森林地表粗糙度。结果表明,Martano法计算结果偏小,其他三种方法结果基本一致。不确定性分析表明,Martano法的不确定性与参与计算的数据量有关。拟合迭代法和牛顿迭代法的不确定性在于,通常假设u_*不随观测高度而变化,而实际u_*随观测高度变化。若相邻两个观测高度之间的u_*变化1％,地表粗糙度计算误差8.3%。TVM法由于参数C₁的选取范围为0.9~1.05,引起地表粗糙度不确定性平均值为29.9%。经计算得到长白山森林在各种大气层结条件下的地表粗糙度,拟合迭代法得到的2003年稳定、中性和不稳定条件下的地表粗糙度年平均值分别为2.642、2.103和1.616m。     

栅格数据表示空间信息的不确定性初探

首先阐述了栅格结构在地形表达方面所表现出来的两大优势,正因为这些优势使得栅格结构能在GIS中得到广泛应用。其次,分析了由于栅格结构自身的特点,导致了在处理地形表面数据时,会有基于点和基于面两种不同的处理方式,并由此会产生解释格网属性值和确定属性值定位这两方面的不确定性。然后,提出了解决该问题的方法,即将栅格数据结构分为像素模型和格网模型两种形式。最后给出了两个典型例子,来说明若将不同的栅格数据图层等同对待会产生的结果误差情况,提醒用户使用栅格数据时注意的事项。     

整合等级与顺序的黄土高原小流域沟道结构理论研究

沟道等级结构与顺序结构都可看作是沟道拓扑结构,在黄土高原小流域坝系规划研究中,往往需要将Horton-Strahler的沟道分级模型与较长沟道优先的顺序编码模型进行整合。该文提出一个沟道结构假说,即在黄土高原小流域尺度上,存在一个最小集水面积与最短沟道长度的适宜取值区间,使得基于DEM提取的沟道网络上任意节点对应的较长沟道作为主沟道,其Horton-Strahler沟道等级不低于汇入支流。搜集的黄土高原丘陵沟壑区多个副区的一些典型小流域数据有效验证了上述假说,从而为实现整合等级结构与顺序结构的沟道编码模型的进一步研究提供理论基础。     

Bayesian assessment of site‐specific performance of geotechnical design charts with unknown model uncertainty

Soil properties are indispensable input parameters in geotechnical design and analysis. In engineering practice, particularly for projects with relatively small or medium sizes, soil properties are often not measured directly, but estimated from geotechnical design charts using results of some commonly used laboratory or in situ tests. For example, effective friction angle ?′ of soil is frequently estimated using standard penetration test (SPT) N values and design charts relating SPT N values to ?′. Note that directly measured ?′ data are generally not available when (and probably why) the use of design charts is needed. Because design charts are usually developed from past observation data, on either empirical or semi‐theoretical basis, uncertainty is unavoidably involved in the design charts. This situation leads to two important questions in engineering practice: 1 how good or reliable are the soil properties estimated in a specific site when using the design charts? (or how to measure the performance of the design charts in a specific site?); and 2 how to incorporate rationally the model uncertainty when estimating soil properties using the design charts? This paper aims to address these two questions by developing a Bayesian statistical approach. In this paper, the second question is firstly addressed (i.e., soil properties are probabilistically characterized by rationally incorporating the model uncertainty in the design chart). Then, based on the characterization results obtained, an index is proposed to evaluate the site‐specific performance of design charts (i.e., to address the first question). Equations are derived for the proposed approach, and the proposed approach is illustrated using both real and simulated SPT data. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How do hydrologic modeling decisions affect the portrayal of climate change impacts?

End users face a range of subjective decisions when evaluating climate change impacts on hydrology, but the importance of these decisions is rarely assessed. In this paper, we evaluate the implications of hydrologic modelling choices on projected changes in the annual water balance, monthly simulated processes, and signature measures (i.e. metrics that quantify characteristics of the hydrologic catchment response) under a future climate scenario. To this end, we compare hydrologic changes computed with four different model structures – whose parameters have been obtained using a common calibration strategy – with hydrologic changes computed with a single model structure and parameter sets from multiple options for different calibration decisions (objective function, local optima, and calibration forcing dataset). Results show that both model structure selection and the parameter estimation strategy affect the direction and magnitude of projected changes in the annual water balance, and that the relative effects of these decisions are basin dependent. The analysis of monthly changes illustrates that parameter estimation strategies can provide similar or larger uncertainties in simulations of some hydrologic processes when compared with uncertainties coming from model choice. We found that the relative effects of modelling decisions on projected changes in catchment behaviour depend on the signature measure analysed. Furthermore, parameter sets with similar performance, but located in different regions of the parameter space, provide very different projections for future catchment behaviour. More generally, the results obtained in this study prompt the need to incorporate parametric uncertainty in multi‐model frameworks to avoid an over‐confident portrayal of climate change impacts. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

马鞍桥金矿控矿构造规律及成矿预测

在讨论矿区构造变形序列、变形期次、深度层次、构造组合及变形机制的基础上,重点对马鞍桥金矿的控矿韧性剪切带类型及其与成矿关系进行了研究,根据剪切带的几何要素,用作图法求出矿带的东延方向,综合其他找矿标志,预测出清水河处矿体可能出现的部位。