Asymptotic Calculation of the Wave Trough Exceedance Probabilities in A Nonlinear Sea

This paper concerns the calculation of the wave trough exceedance probabilities in a nonlinear sea. The calculations have been carried out by incorporating a second order nonlinear wave model into an asymptotic method. This is a new approach for the calculation of the wave trough exceedance probabilities, and, as all of the calculations are performed in the probability domain, avoids the need for long time-domain simulations. The proposed asymptotic method has been applied to calculate the wave trough depth exceedance probabilities of a sea state with the surface elevation data measured at the coast of Yura in the Japan Sea. It is demonstrated that the proposed new method can offer better predictions than the theoretical Rayleigh wave trough depth distribution model. The calculated results by using the proposed new method have been further compared with those obtained by using the Arhan and Plaisted nonlinear distribution model and the Toffoli et al.’s wave trough depth distribution model, and its accuracy has been once again substantiated. The research findings obtained from this study demonstrate that the proposed asymptotic method can be readily utilized in the process of designing various kinds of ocean engineering structures.     

部分不确定性平差模型的迭代算法

为提高部分不确定性平差模型的解算效率,直接采用迭代算法进行求解。讨论了迭代不收敛时的解算方法。算例表明,该部分不确定性平差模型的迭代算法是可行的,解算效率更高、稳定性更好。     

现行业务湿度传感器测量不确定度研究

依据JJF1059.1-2012《测量不确定度评定与表示》,针对自动气象站各要素传感器的测量误差会随时间、温度等环境因素的变化而发生漂移。为确保观测数据的准确、可靠,以CP340恒温恒湿箱为湿度发生环境、采用英国michell公司的Optidew Vision精密露点仪为标准器,介绍了利用HMP155A温湿度传感器进行湿度测量不确定度评定的一般方法和详细步骤。最后给出一个评定实例,在温度为22℃和40℃,相对湿度为30%RH~75%RH时,通过对测量不确定度的各分量进行分析和计算,得到HMP155A温湿度传感器测量结果的扩展不确定度分别为1.50%和1.46%。     

һ���µĶ�Բ�α�־��λ���ӵIJ�ȷ���Թ��Ʒ���

?????е???α???????λ???????и???????????μ???????????С????????????λ???????????????λ?????????????????????????????????????????????μ?????????????????????????????1??75???????￡??μ??λ????????????λ?????и???????????????????????10?????????0.02???????????     

栅格数据表示空间信息的不确定性初探

首先阐述了栅格结构在地形表达方面所表现出来的两大优势,正因为这些优势使得栅格结构能在GIS中得到广泛应用。其次,分析了由于栅格结构自身的特点,导致了在处理地形表面数据时,会有基于点和基于面两种不同的处理方式,并由此会产生解释格网属性值和确定属性值定位这两方面的不确定性。然后,提出了解决该问题的方法,即将栅格数据结构分为像素模型和格网模型两种形式。最后给出了两个典型例子,来说明若将不同的栅格数据图层等同对待会产生的结果误差情况,提醒用户使用栅格数据时注意的事项。     

非同构简单无向图的计数方法

首先在正整数的所有无序划分构成的集合上定义了一个全序关系，由此将所有无序划分的全体分成一些互不相交的子集，从而得到生成所有无序划分的方法，也就得到了n顶点的全体置换格式，然后给出了由简单无向图的顶点的置换格式确定简单无向图边的置换格式的方法，最后给出了n顶点非同构简单无向图的生成多项式并给出了部分计算结果。     

渤海J油田储量不确定性分析及优选

地质建模的最终目的是建立反映地质认识的地质模型,并对储量不确定性进行定量表征。储量是油田开发方案编制的基础,一个油田科学合理的开发往往需设计乐观、推荐、悲观三个方案,分别对应着乐观、推荐、悲观三个储量,即储量的P10,P50,P90。渤海J油田正处于开发的前期研究阶段,井点资料少,储层的纵横向变化快,储量不确定性强,而如何优选储量的P10,P50,P90成为决定油田开发方案编制的关键一环。该文通过构造、储层及油藏特征的分析首先确定了影响该油田储量的5个不确定性因素,即:构造幅度、油水界面深度、孔隙度下限、泥岩主变程、泥岩次变程,并分析了它们的分布范围,通过地质模型的建立对各个不确定性因素开展敏感性分析,确定油水界面深度、孔隙度下限、泥岩主变程是影响储量最大的3个因素,并以此为基础对J油田的储量进行了不确定性分析,优选了储量的P10,P50,P90。     

Effect of Uncertainty of Grid DEM on TOPMODEL： Evaluation and Analysis

1 Introduction Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is a digital representa- tion of the earth’s surface and is typically represented in three formats: Grid DEM, TIN (Triangular Irregular Network) and contour-based storage structure. Being readily available and easily operating, Grid DEM has been widely applied to the analysis of hydrological problems (Moore et al., 1991) and other fields. Unfor- tunately, DEM has its inherent errors, the departure of a measurement from its true value, whic…     

CTD温度实验室校准结果不确定度的分析

文章分析了CTD温度实验室校准不确定度来源项,按不确定度的评定方法,以实例形式分析评定了CTD温度实验室校准结果的不确定度。     

Long period variations of the motion of a satellite due to non-resonant tesseral harmonics of a gravity potential

The main effects of tesseral harmonics of a gravity potential expansion on the motion of a satellite, are short period variations as well as long period variations due to resonances. However, other smaller long period and secular variations can arise from interactions between tesseral terms of the same order. The analytical integration of these effects is developed, using numerical evaluation of Kaula eccentricity and inclination functions. Examples for some Earth's geodetic satellites show that secular effects can reach a few decameters per year. The secular variations can even reach several hundred of meters per year for the Mars natural satellite Phobos.