Representing and communicating deep uncertainty in climate-change assessments

IPCC reports provide a synthesis of the state of the science in order to inform the international policy process. This task is made difficult by the presence of deep uncertainty in the climate problem that results from long time scales and complexity. This paper focuses on how deep uncertainty can be effectively communicated. We argue that existing schemes do an inadequate job of communicating deep uncertainty and propose a simple approach that distinguishes between various levels of subjective understanding in a systematic manner. We illustrate our approach with two examples. To cite this article: M. Kandlikar et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Uncertainty analysis of CO_2 flux components in subtropical evergreen coniferous plantation

We present an uncertainty analysis of ecological process parameters and CO2 flux components (Reco, NEE and gross ecosystem exchange (GEE)) derived from 3 years’ continuous eddy covariance meas-urements of CO2 fluxes at subtropical evergreen coniferous plantation, Qianyanzhou of ChinaFlux. Daily-differencing approach was used to analyze the random error of CO2 fluxes measurements and bootstrapping method was used to quantify the uncertainties of three CO2 flux components. In addition, we evaluated different ...     

Measuring place-based accessibility under travel time uncertainty

Travel time uncertainty has significant impacts on individual activity-travel scheduling, but at present these impacts have not been considered in most accessibility studies. In this paper, an accessibility evaluation framework is proposed for urban areas with uncertain travel times. A reliable space-time service region (RSTR) model is introduced to represent the space-time service region of a facility under travel time uncertainty. Based on the RSTR model, four reliable place-based accessibility measures are proposed to evaluate accessibility to urban services by incorporating the effects of travel time reliability. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework, a case study using large-scale taxi tracking data is carried out. The results of the case study indicate that the proposed accessibility measures can evaluate large-scale place-based accessibility well in urban areas with uncertain travel times. Conventional place-based accessibility indicators ignoring travel time reliability can significantly overestimate the accessibility to urban services.     

高分辨率全球尺度水文模型发展综述

主要从高分辨率全球尺度水文模型（HRGHM）的发展历程、模型的一般结构与特点、模型数据集的发展和模型所面临的主要问题等几个方面对全球尺度水文模型的发展情况进行了综述。HRGHM能够使水文学家从全球的角度深入了解水资源的产生及循环过程,并且对相关环境问题的解决、气候的模拟与预报以及水资源的管理具有重要的意义。经过几十年的发展和努力,在全球尺度数据集的研究和发展方面已经取得了丰硕的成果,并且在HRGHM的实践中得以应用,但空间数据的缺乏仍然是其发展的最大羁绊。HRGHM所面临的问题除了数据的匮乏还在于非线性问题、尺度问题和确定性问题等水文机理和技术层面的问题。     

Exploring the sensitivity of coastal inundation modelling to DEM vertical error

As sea level is projected to rise throughout the twenty-first century due to climate change, there is a need to ensure that sea level rise (SLR) models accurately and defensibly represent future flood inundation levels to allow for effective coastal zone management. Digital elevation models (DEMs) are integral to SLR modelling, but are subject to error, including in their vertical resolution. Error in DEMs leads to uncertainty in the output of SLR inundation models, which if not considered, may result in poor coastal management decisions. However, DEM error is not usually described in detail by DEM suppliers; commonly only the RMSE is reported. This research explores the impact of stated vertical error in delineating zones of inundation in two locations along the Devon, United Kingdom, coastline (Exe and Otter Estuaries). We explore the consequences of needing to make assumptions about the distribution of error in the absence of detailed error data using a 1 m, publically available composite DEM with a maximum RMSE of 0.15 m, typical of recent LiDAR-derived DEMs. We compare uncertainty using two methods (i) the NOAA inundation uncertainty mapping method which assumes a normal distribution of error and (ii) a hydrologically correct bathtub method where the DEM is uniformly perturbed between the upper and lower bounds of a 95% linear error in 500 Monte Carlo Simulations (HBM+MCS). The NOAA method produced a broader zone of uncertainty (an increase of 134.9% on the HBM+MCS method), which is particularly evident in the flatter topography of the upper estuaries. The HBM+MCS method generates a narrower band of uncertainty for these flatter areas, but very similar extents where shorelines are steeper. The differences in inundation extents produced by the methods relate to a number of underpinning assumptions, and particularly, how the stated RMSE is interpreted and used to represent error in a practical sense. Unlike the NOAA method, the HBM+MCS model is computationally intensive, depending on the areas under consideration and the number of iterations. We therefore used the HBM+ MCS method to derive a regression relationship between elevation and inundation probability for the Exe Estuary. We then apply this to the adjacent Otter Estuary and show that it can defensibly reproduce zones of inundation uncertainty, avoiding the computationally intensive step of the HBM+MCS. The equation-derived zone of uncertainty was 112.1% larger than the HBM+MCS method, compared to the NOAA method which produced an uncertain area 423.9% larger. Each approach has advantages and disadvantages and requires value judgements to be made. Their use underscores the need for transparency in assumptions and communications of outputs. We urge DEM publishers to move beyond provision of a generalised RMSE and provide more detailed estimates of spatial error and complete metadata, including locations of ground control points and associated land cover.     

中龄和老龄杉木人工林细根序级形态和呼吸特征

以福建省南平市王台镇溪后村安曹下19年生和91年生杉木人工林为研究对象,对其1~5级细根的形态及呼吸特征进行了比较研究。结果表明:2个林分细根直径、根长、组织密度随序级升高逐渐增大,比根长及比根呼吸随序级升高则减小;2个林分细根仅在4级根之间和5级根之间的直径以及5级根之间的比根呼吸具有显著差异(P0.05)。方差分析表明林龄仅对细根直径有极显著影响(P0.01),对根长、比根长、组织密度及比根呼吸的影响均不显著;林龄和序级的交互作用对细根直径,比根长及比根呼吸有显著影响(P0.05,P0.01),对根长和组织密度的影响不显著;序级对两个林分细根直径、根长、比根长、组织密度及比根呼吸的影响均达到极显著水平(P0.01)。回归分析表明2个林分细根直径、根长、比根长、组织密度及比根呼吸与序级之间具有三次函数,指数函数,或者幂函数关系。     

银量法测定化学试剂氯化钠中氯化钠纯度的不确定度评定

针对银量法测定化学试剂氯化钠中氯化钠纯度,讨论了氯化钠纯度测定结果的测量不确定度的来源及评定方法,当K=2,氯化钠纯度测定结果的扩展不确定度为(99.70±0.64)%。     

某污染场地土壤苯并(a)芘含量的三维估值及不确定性分析

污染场地修复前的准确评估是开展场地修复行动的基础和前提。建立了一套评估污染场地中污染土方量的三维插值方法,采用该方法模拟了某污染场地土壤苯并(a)芘(BaP)含量的空间分布并分析其不确定性。结果表明：场地地下环境中BaP含量数据服从对数正态分布,土壤中污染严重区域分别位于研究区的西南部和北部。通过普通克里格插值得到的BaP浓度超过0.4 mg·kg^-1的污染羽体积为14134 m³,对应的累积概率为0.585。依据给定变差范围值计算,得出现有收集数据对整个场地的描述程度为65%。基于该三维插值方法能准确地反映场地污染物空间分布特征,其不确定性分析可为补充采样布点及精准评估提供参考。     

一类球谐函数与三角函数乘积积分的计算

本文根据球谐函数的跨次递推公式和三角函数的性质,详细推导了在重力梯度调和分析中出现的一类球谐函数积分的跨次递推公式和递推初始值的计算公式。数值试验表明,球谐函数跨次递推算法具有快速、稳定的优点。该类积分的跨次递推实现,为卫星重力梯度调和分析奠定了算法基础。     

多尺度表达中线状要素的综合不确定性评价模型

在考虑节点化简的基础上建立了节点数据不确定性评价模型,基于曲线光滑模型建立了线元模型不确定性评价模型,在此基础上,根据不确定性传播律构建了由数据不确定性和模型不确定性合成的线状要素多尺度表达不确定性的综合评价模型。实验表明,综合不确定性指标值作为线状要素多尺度表达不确定性的量化指标是有效的。可将其用于计算线元不确定带的宽度,解决线状要素多尺度表达不确定性空间分析和推理问题;并用于线状要素多尺度表达的质量评价与控制。