Recent Precipitation Trends in Hungary in the Context of Larger Scale Climatic Changes

The time series of monthly precipitation totals from 14 Hungarian observing stations (1901–1998) were analysed to reveal the long term changes in precipitation characteristics occurred in the 20th century. A particular attention was given to the changes in the recent decades and their links with the larger scale climatic and circulation changes over Europe and the Atlantic.The statistical significancesof systematic changes are controlled by linear trend analysis and the Mann–Kendall test. The long term fluctuations are illustrated applying a 15-point Gaussian filter on the time series. The Standardised Precipitation Index is used to evaluate the changes in the drought event frequency. The relationships with larger scale changes are mostly discussed relying on contemporary papers, and the Grosswetterlagen Catalogue is used as well.The annual precipitation total decreased by 15–20% in Hungary during the 20th century. The decline is substantial in both halves of the century, but the precipitation sums in the transition seasons declined in the first 50 years, and the winter precipitation decreased in the latest decades. The precipitation total of the period November–February declined significantly in the last 50 years. In the same time the mean winter value of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) increased, the positions of the main pressure patterns over the Atlantic are shifted northeastward, and lot of other coherent changes detected in the winter climate of the European–Atlantic region. The mean summer precipitation total has hardly changed, but the frequency of summer drought events increased. There are some signs of a shift of the Hungarian summer climate towards a Mediterranean like climate.     

Are catch-up reefs an artefact of coring?

Drill cores through modern coral reefs commonly show a time lag in reef initiation followed by a phase of rapid accretion to sea level from submerged foundations – the so-called ‘catch-up response’. But because of the difficulty of drilling in these environments, core distribution is usually restricted to accessible areas that may not fully represent reef history, especially if the reef initiated in patches or developed with a prograde or retrograde geometry. As a consequence, core data have the potential to give a misleading impression of reef development, particularly with respect to the timing of initiation and response to sea-level rise. Here, we use computer models to simulate keep-up reef development and, from them, quantify variations in the timing of reef initiation and accretion rate using mock cores taken through the completed simulations. The results demonstrate that cores consistently underestimate the timing of reef initiation and overestimate the reef accretion rate so that, statistically, a core through a keep-up reef will most likely produce a catch-up pattern – an initiation lag followed by a phase of rapid accretion to sea level. This implies that catch-up signatures may be an artefact of coring and that keep-up reefs are significantly more common than previous core studies claim.     

平板载荷试验应思考的几个问题

提出了平板载荷试验中的几个问题:(1)复合地基平板载荷试验垫层的重要性;(2)复合地基平板载荷试验存在尺寸效应;(3)单墩或单桩平板载荷试验不完善。重点对目前广泛使用的复合地基荷载试验进行了讨论,以引起检测人员注意。     

Crossover from Nonlinearity Controlled to Heterogeneity Controlled Mixing in Two-Phase Porous Media Flows

We use high resolution Monte Carlo simulations to study the dispersive mixing in two-phase, immiscible, porous media flow that results from the interaction of the nonlinearities in the flow equations with geologic heterogeneity. Our numerical experiments show that distinct dispersive regimes occur depending on the relative strength of nonlinearity and heterogeneity. In particular, for a given degree of multiscale heterogeneity, controlled by the Hurst exponent which characterizes the underlying stochastic model for the heterogeneity, linear and nonlinear flows are essentially identical in their degree of dispersion, if the heterogeneity is strong enough. As the heterogeneity weakens, the dispersion rates cross over from those of linear heterogeneous flows to those typical of nonlinear homogeneous flows.     

次天气尺度及中尺度暴雨系统研究进展

回顾了75年来中国科学院大气物理研究所科研人员在次天气尺度及中尺度暴雨系统领域的研究工作,这些领域主要包括暴雨、中尺度低空急流、低涡、梅雨锋结构及梅雨锋生、对称不稳定和涡层不稳定以及暴雨等灾害天气的天气动力学及数值模拟研究等;总结了在次天气尺度及中尺度暴雨系统研究的不同时期所取得的成就以及这些成就在防止和减轻中尺度暴雨灾害方面所起到的重要作用.     

用相关分析法从红外云图上提取云团平均尺度特征量

用相关分析法从红外云图上提取云团平均尺度这一特征量，考察了云团平均尺度与合地面观测资料所估算的云厚以及实测局地降雨之关系。初步分析表明，所得的云团平均尺度具有明显的天气学意义。     

VLBI观测的电离层延迟改正模型研究

电离层是大气层中的一个电离区域，高度范围大约在60－1000km。电磁波信号穿越电离层时其传播速度会发生变化，传播路径也会略微发生弯曲，从而使信号的传播时间乘以在真空中的光速不等于信号源至测站的几何距离。对VLBI观测来讲，电离层引起的差异可达近百米百米。文中从电磁波的传播原理出发，讨论了信号传播速度和传播路径变化引起的VLBI观测延迟；对目前采用的各种电离层延迟模型进行了分析总结；并指出单频率VLBI观测应顾及高阶项和路径弯曲的影响或使用区域性电离层延迟改正模型。     

山东省龙卷风发生的气候特征

根据藤田-皮尔森强度分类法对1950年～2000年山东省出现的351次龙卷风进行分类，其中F0级61次，F1级256次，F2级34次。山东半岛、鲁中、鲁南出现次数较多，鲁西北较少。1950～1972年发生次数明显高于1973～2000年。龙卷风发生存在明显的季节变化，夏季发生较多。龙卷风主要发生于午后至傍晚，多数龙卷风仅能维持几分到十几分钟。     

丽江7.0级地震重力前兆模式研究<

为了研究1996年丽江MＳ7.0地震前地震孕育过程或前兆表现，利用滇西地震实验场内高精度重复重力观测数据，结合地质调查和地球物理推断结果，并考虑到观测数据和模型粗差， 采用稳健或抗差-贝叶斯最小二乘算法和多断层位错模型，首次初步反演获得了研究区主要活动断裂滑动的时间变化分布．结果表明，1990～1997年断层运动的时间变化，较好地反映了1996年丽江MＳ7.0地震孕育过程．其主要前兆模式图象具有主震余震型特征，遵循地壳内部密度和地壳形变耦合运动模式（简称DD耦合运动模式）．      

地表非均匀性对区域平均水分通量参数化的影响

次网格尺度地表非均匀性对于网格区平均通量具有重要影响。若将网格区视为均一地表 ,并不能真实描述地 气通量交换过程 ,且可造成很大误差。文中从理论上证明 ,区域平均水分通量的变化率可分解为两部分 :第一部分为区域水分通量的算术平均变化率 ;第二部分为非均匀性所引起的水分通量变化率扰动 ,它与区域内土壤水分空间分布的变差系数有关。数值试验表明 ,地表土壤水分的水平空间变差系数集中反映了区域内土壤水分分布的非均匀程度 ,不同土壤对同样的非均匀程度其敏感性是不同的。变差系数愈大 ,非均匀性愈强 ,在相同的土壤水分平均值下 ,不同土壤类型对地表非均匀程度的敏感性并不相同。例如沙土和粘土受非均匀性的影响就可相差数十倍。