倾废航行数据记录仪的数据判读

本文简要介绍了我所研制的ＨＹＱ１－１型倾废航行数据记录仪的特性。根据该仪器在实际运行中取得的大量数据,探讨一些特殊航线的判读方法以及地面数据处理软件的改进措施。     

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智能位置服务工作机理及发展趋势研究

人工智能、大数据挖掘、云计算等技术拓展了位置服务的服务方式和应用领域,并将服务的层次升华至智能化水平。首先,本文阐述了智能位置服务的研究现状,对比一般位置服务,梳理了智能位置服务的内涵与特点;其次,研究了智能位置服务的工作机理,建立基于定位技术、地理信息系统、位置模型构建与管理、活动任务建模、物联网技术、大数据挖掘、机器学习和增强现实8种关键技术的体系结构、运行模式和服务方式;最后,探讨了智能位置服务的发展瓶颈与未来趋势,为进一步智能位置服务的关键技术攻关提供参考和借鉴。     

基于全球导航卫星系统资料的短时降水预报

根据大气对天顶对流层延迟(Zenith Tropospheric Delay, ZTD)影响的变化特征,提出并实现了一种无气象数据短时降水预报的方法。利用2015年5—6月浙江连续运行参考站(Continuously Operating Reference Station, CORS)网的全球导航卫星系统(Global Navigation Satellite System, GNSS)观测数据和对应每小时的降水量信息对该方法进行验证,结果表明该方法能够预测出80%以上的降水事件,与国际上利用气象数据根据大气可降水量(Precipitable Water Vapor, PWV)预测出的结果精度相当。表明脱离地面实测气象数据仅利用ZTD对短时降水进行预报可行有效,对于降水的短时预报具有重要研究意义和应用价值。     

原子荧光光谱仪工作温度对水体中砷含量测定的影响

氢化物发生-原子荧光光谱法受到仪器工作温度的影响主要来自于氢化物发生反应和仪器漂移,工作温度升高会增加仪器的背景值,而过低的工作温度又不利于氢化物发生反应进行。本文根据原子荧光光谱测定水体中砷的方法,在10℃、20℃和30℃的工作温度条件下,分别测试校准曲线、空白样品、自配质控样品和有证标准物质来确定最适宜的工作温度。结果表明:三个温度条件下的校准曲线均具有较好的线性相关性;仪器工作温度过高会引起空白荧光值变大、检出限升高,同时会造成仪器灵敏度的降低,增加了样品测试误差,测试结果不能满足准确度的要求。本文提出,利用原子荧光光谱法测定砷含量时,应控制仪器工作温度在10～20℃,并且保证温度变化相对稳定。     

LULUCF in the post-2012 regime: fixing the problems of the past?

One of the reasons why the Kyoto Protocol has been environmentally ineffective is the flaws in the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounting rules, including voluntary accounting for Article 3.4 activities, the adoption of a definition of forest management that allowed parties to preferentially include and exclude forest lands, and allowing parties with net emissions from LULUCF in 1990 to include deforestation emissions in their 1990 emissions base year. Three proposed amendments to the LULUCF rules for the post-2012 regime are discussed and analysed: (1) a force majeure rule, (2) a baseline-and-credit system for forest management and (3) an ‘emissions-to-atmosphere’ approach for harvested wood products. Although these proposals have the potential to significantly improve the accounting framework, there are still significant problems such as the failure to account for the biophysical effects of forest activities, uncertainties associated with the application of the forest management baseline-and-credit system and continuing optional coverage of Article 3.4 activities.     

Prediction in a socio-hydrological world

ABSTRACT

Water resource management involves public investments with long-ranging impacts that traditional prediction approaches cannot address. These are increasingly being critiqued because (1) there is an absence of feedbacks between water and society; (2) the models are created by domain experts who hand them to decision makers to implement; and (3) they fail to account for global forces on local water resources. Socio-hydrological models that explicitly account for feedbacks between water and society at multiple scales and facilitate stakeholder participation can address these concerns. However, they require a fundamental change in how we think about prediction. We suggest that, in the context of long-range predictions, the goal is not scenarios that present a snapshot of the world at some future date, but rather projection of alternative, plausible and co-evolving trajectories of the socio-hydrological system. This will both yield insights into cause–effect relationships and help stakeholders identify safe or desirable operating space.     

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国产海洋气象漂流浮标运行评估分析

利用2017年西太平洋海域国产海洋气象漂流浮标（以下简称浮标）实时运行数据、定位数据及观测数据,对浮标有效寿命、文件接收率、数据到报率和数据可用性等主要指标进行了评估。结果表明,浮标漂流速度是反映仪器有效寿命的关键指标,4套浮标有效寿命分别为193.8 h、837.8 h、330.8 h和2766.9 h;有效寿命内浮标文件接收率和数据到报率分别为79.86%和98.74%、97.37%和99.88%、94.65%和100%、65.45%和89.66%。经浮标运行状态参数影响分析和质量控制算法验证,浮标数据可用率分别为98.90%、99.68%、98.31%和60.14%。浮标太阳能充电模块可以一定程度上增加浮标工作寿命,但不能阻止电源损耗,电源电压变化趋势预测结果表明浮标工作寿命在5550 h至8400 h,满足设计指标。