Calculating Auroral Oval Pattern by AE Index

The relationship between the auroral oval pattern, i.e., location, size, shape, and intensity, and the auroral electrojet activity index （AE index） is studied. It is found that the maximal auroral intensity is elliptically distributed, and the lengths of semimajor and semiminor axes are positively correlated to AE. The intensity along the normal of the auroral oval can be satisfyingly described by a Gaussian distribution, and the maximum and the full width at half maximum of the Gaussian distribution ave both positively correlated to AE. Based on these statistical results, a series of experimental formulas as a function of AE are developed to calculate the location, size, shape, and intensity of the auroral oval. These formulas are validated by the auroral images released by SWPC/NOAA.     

南阳市灰霾天气污染特征及其健康效应

利用南阳市1971—2007年地面气象站观测资料以及2004—2005年环境检测站提供的空气污染物监测数据和南阳市中心医院门诊逐日病例资料,统计分析了南阳市灰霾天气及其空气污染特征,并根据灰霾天气对应的门诊病历,分析了灰霾天气对人体健康的影响。结果表明:南阳市灰霾日数的年代际变化非常明显,37年来南阳市霾的发生频率和持续时间都呈持续增加的趋势。秋冬是灰霾的高发季节。灰霾天气出现时空气污染程度加剧,特别是PM10浓度在灰霾出现日明显升高。就诊人群以呼吸系统为主的疾病发生率在灰霾发生当天明显升高,呼吸系统疾病门诊例数与PM10浓度正相关。     

基于ADTD系统的雷电流波头陡度频率分布特征

通过对ADTD闪电定位系统2006 2008年在重庆地区监测的729598次闪电进行统计,重点分析雷电流陡度的频率分布特征。结果表明:雷电流波头陡度及其频率随极性不同而差异较大,正闪陡度明显大于负闪陡度,而同陡度负闪频率却显著大于正闪;雷电流幅值与陡度相关系数为+0.613;采用电力行业标准DL/T620推荐波头时间反推得到的雷电流陡度和采用Ciger推荐公式计算得到的雷电流陡度的概率分布特征与统计特征差异较大。在此基础上分析了ADTD系统获取雷电流陡度资料的局限性,为合理选取雷电流陡度参数提供理论依据。     

ECC方法在中国夏季气温预测研究中的应用

以中国夏季气温为预测对象,选取东亚地区冬季500 h Pa高度场、海平面气压场、地表温度场和850 h Pa温度场为预测因子,采用1951~2009年去趋势处理后的资料,通过变形的典型相关分析(Barnett-Preisendorfer Canonical Correlation Analysis,BP-CCA)方法分别建立单因子预测模型,再利用集合典型相关分析(Ensemble Canonical Correlation,ECC)方法建立集合预测模型,对中国夏季气温进行基于交叉检验方法的预测试验,然后利用2010~2014年的资料对中国夏季气温进行独立样本检验。通过分析BP-CCA模态可知,一对BP-CCA模态的空间型在一定程度上可以反映预报因子场和对象场的遥相关特征。通过基于交叉检验方法的预测试验表明环流场和热力场均能为气温提供预测信息。ECC预测模型综合了各个预报因子的在不同地区的预报技巧,比单因子BP-CCA预测模型有更高、更稳定的预报技巧。独立样本检验表明ECC模型与单因子BP-CCA预测模型相比,对中国夏季气温有更高、更稳定的实际预测能力,对气温季节预测具有参考价值。     

Carbon-isotope records of the Early Jurassic (Toarcian) oceanic anoxic event from the Valdorbia (Umbria–Marche Apennines) and Monte Mangart (Julian Alps) sections: palaeoceanographic and stratigraphic implications

The Toarcian oceanic anoxic event ( ca 183 Ma) coincides with a global perturbation marked by enhanced organic carbon burial and a general decrease in calcium carbonate production, probably triggered by changes in the composition of marine plankton and elevated carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. This study is based on high-resolution sampling of two stratigraphic successions, located in Valdorbia (Umbria–Marche Apennines) and Monte Mangart (Julian Alps), Italy, which represent expressions of the Toarcian oceanic anoxic event in deep-water pelagic sediments. These successions are characterized by the occurrence of black shales showing relatively low total organic carbon concentrations (compared with coeval strata in Northern Europe), generally < 2%, and low hydrogen indices. On this basis, they are similar to other Toarcian black shales described from the Tethyan region. The positive and negative carbon-isotope records from the two localities permit a high-resolution correlation such that ammonite biostratigraphy information from Valdorbia can be transferred to those parts of the Monte Mangart section that lack these fossils. Spectral analyses of δ¹³C_org values and of CaCO₃ percentages from the sedimentary records of both the Valdorbia and Monte Mangart sections reveal a strong cyclic pattern, best interpreted as an eccentricity signal which hence implies a duration of ca 500 kyr for the negative carbon-isotope excursion. Based on the carbon-isotope curves obtained, the high-resolution correlation between the Italian successions and a section in Yorkshire (Northern Europe) confirms the supposition that the apparent mismatch between the dating of the Toarcian oceanic anoxic event in the Boreal and Tethyan realms is an artefact of biostratigraphy.     

Seismic constraints on rock damaging related to a failing mountain peak: the Hochvogel,Allgäu

Large rock slope failures play a pivotal role in long-term landscape evolution and are a major concern in land use planning and hazard aspects. While the failure phase and the time immediately prior to failure are increasingly well studied, the nature of the preparation phase remains enigmatic. This knowledge gap is due, to a large degree, to difficulties associated with instrumenting high mountain terrain and the local nature of classic monitoring methods, which does not allow integral observation of large rock volumes. Here, we analyse data from a small network of up to seven seismic sensors installed during July–October 2018 (with 43 days of data loss) at the summit of the Hochvogel, a 2592 m high Alpine peak. We develop proxy time series indicative of cyclic and progressive changes of the summit. Modal analysis, horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio data and end-member modelling analysis reveal diurnal cycles of increasing and decreasing coupling stiffness of a 260,000 m³ large, instable rock volume, due to thermal forcing. Relative seismic wave velocity changes also indicate diurnal accumulation and release of stress within the rock mass. At longer time scales, there is a systematic superimposed pattern of stress increased over multiple days and episodic stress release within a few days, expressed in an increased emission of short seismic pulses indicative of rock cracking. Our data provide essential first order information on the development of large-scale slope instabilities towards catastrophic failure. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

洪水预报模型输入与输出的误差分布及相关性分析

降雨预报信息作为洪水预报模型的输入,该信息的准确性直接影响洪水预报模型输出的准确性.为探究模型输入(降雨预报)误差与输出(洪水预报)误差之间的关系,以英那河流域为例,分析了不同雨量等级下,预报模型的输入误差与输出误差的分布规律,并定性分析了两种误差的相关关系.结果表明,降雨量等级若为无雨及小雨时,两种误差不相关;若为中...     

塔北、塔中地区碳酸盐岩及其原油中的二苯并噻吩类化合物

塔里木盆地塔北、塔中地区四口井(库南1井,轮南46井,塔中12井和塔参1井)寒武-奥陶系12个碳酸盐岩烃源岩(泥灰岩,泥质灰岩和云岩)岩芯样品抽提物芳烃组分中的二苯并噻吩类化合物组成和丰度变化特征可分为三种类型:Ⅰ二苯并噻吩、甲基二苯并噻吩型;Ⅱ二苯并噻吩、甲基二苯并噻吩、二甲基二苯并噻吩+三甲基芴混合物型;Ⅲ二苯并噻吩、甲基二苯并噻吩、二甲基二苯并噻吩和三甲基二苯并噻吩型。研究的塔北、塔中隆起11个海相油二苯并噻吩类化合物分布类型均为二苯并噻吩、甲基二苯并噻吩、二甲基二苯并噻吩和三甲基二苯并噻吩型,和海相烃源岩二苯并噻吩类化合物第Ⅲ种分布类型完全相同。据此推断:塔北隆起8个海相油可能主要来源于塔北轮南地区下奥陶统;塔中隆起3个海相油可能来源于塔中地区中-上奥陶统。     

用相关分析法约简MCSs空间数据库

长江流域出现致洪大暴雨与青藏高原上中尺度对流系统(MCSs)的东移密切相关。为了寻找MCSs移动和传播的规律,我们将MCSs的移动路径与其中心附近一定范围内的环境物理量场之间建立联系,构造出MCSs东移空间数据挖掘数据库。在这个数据库中,包含由9个环境物理量生成的18个属性项,除此,还包括由MCSs本身的空间特征量构成的5个属性项,即TBB强度、面积、地理位置、形状等,共计23个属性项。利用1998年6月至8月日本地球静止气象卫星(GMS)的青藏高原逐时红外遥感云图计算出的云顶黑体辐射温度(TBB)及青藏高原高分辨率有限区域数值分析预报值系统(HLAFS)环境场物理量数据,构造出上述空间数据挖掘数据库,运用空间相关分析技术对其进行约简,结果表明：在高度(H)、温度（T）、涡度(VOR)、散度(DIV)、水汽通量散度(IFVQ)、垂直速度(W）、假相当位温（θse)、K指数(K)、相对湿度(RH)等9个因素中,高度、涡度、散度、水汽通量散度、垂直速度及k指数6个因素相对独立;而温度(T)、假相当位温(θse)、相对湿度（RH)之间相关性较强,而且与高度等其它6个因素密切相关。根据数据库约简原则,可将温度（T）、假相当位温(θse)、相对湿度(RH)3个因素生成的6个属性项从数据库中删除,以便提高数据挖掘效率。     

松辽盆地德惠断陷火石岭组天然气成藏机理

火石岭组是德惠断陷深层天然气有利的勘探层位。在分析研究区构造演化史的基础上,对火石岭组典型的气藏进行精细解剖,结合地震、测井、钻井等基础资料,并综合轻烃、烃源岩、流体包裹体等分析测试数据,对德惠断陷深层火石岭组的天然气成藏机理进行了研究。结果表明,火石岭组烃源岩有机碳(TOC)平均含量大于1.0%,生烃潜力(S_1+S_2)的均值范围为0.5～2.0 mg/g,有机质类型多以Ⅱ_1～Ⅱ_2型为主,Ⅲ型为辅,有机质已达到成熟,成熟度(R_o)均值为1.5%,烃源岩具有较大的生烃潜力。火石岭组下部天然气来源于火石岭组烃源岩,而火石岭组上部天然气以火石岭组烃源岩生气为主,但受上覆沙河子组烃源岩混源影响。天然气运移以垂向断裂输导为主,层内砂体横向输导为辅。基于流体包裹体分析,结合火石岭组气藏气源对比与烃源岩生排烃期,认为火石岭组天然气藏存在三期成藏:130 Ma左右,对应营城组沉积初期;115～105 Ma左右,对应泉头组沉积期;95～75 Ma左右,对应青山口组—嫩江组沉积期。