A conceptually based stochastic point process model for daily stream‐flow generation

Based on the stochastic and phenomenological aspects of hydrological processes, a conceptually based stochastic point process (SPP) model for daily stream‐flow generation is proposed in this paper. In which, storms are defined by a stochastic point process with marked values. All the random variables defining the process are assumed to be mutually independent, which constitutes a compound Poisson point process. The direct surface runoff is regarded as occurring from storage in a cascade of surface linear reservoirs and is responsible for the short‐term variation of the daily stream flows. The baseflow component is considered as coming from subsurface/groundwater storage and is responsible for the long‐term persistence of the storm time‐series. This type of model is proposed as a more realistic model of daily stream flow than models based on pure stochastic processes. Studies on the instantaneous unit hydrograph and the mechanism of baseflow could thereby provide some parameters for this model. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating evapotranspiration for a temperate salt marsh,Newcastle, Australia

Evapotranspiration was studied at a salt marsh site in the Hunter River estuary, NSW, Australia, during 1996–8. Estimates of actual evapotranspiration (E_a) were obtained for three sites using the eddy correlation method. These values were compared with results obtained with the Penman and Penman–Monteith equations, and with pan evaporation. The Penman–Monteith method was found to be most reliable in estimating daily and hourly evapotranspiration. Surface resistance values averaging 12 s m^?1 were derived from the eddy correlation estimates. Recent tidal flooding and rainfall were found to decrease surface resistance and increase E_a/E_p ratios. Estimates of evapotranspiration obtained using the Penman–Monteith method were shown to be sensitive to changes in surface resistance, canopy height and the method used to estimate net radiation from incoming solar radiation. These results underline the importance of accurately estimating such parameters based on site‐specific data rather than relying on empirical equations, which are derived primarily for crops and forests. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical approach to determine the salinized ground water flow path and hydrogeochemical features around the underground LPG cavern,Korea

The ground water flow path of the coastal area in the Yellow Sea, Korea, was interpreted using both the cross‐correlation analysis of hydraulic properties and the principal component analysis (PCA) of ground water chemistry. Data was obtained from observation wells in the underground liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cavern constructed in the coastal area of Pyeongtaek. Cross‐correlation results showed that the operating pressure became more influenced on artificial factors for the variation of the groundwater level of the study area (45–66% of correlation coefficient) even though its affecting area was limited to the region with fractures or faults, and also showed that the delay time from the variation of operating pressure to the fluctuation of ground water level were relatively long periods (28–31 days). Three hydrogeochemical events (encrusted cement dissolution, host rock dissolution, and seawater intrusion), which were dominantly influenced on ground water quality, could be induced from the result of PCA. Quantitative evaluation for these events using the mixed equation with principal component scores suggest that the dissolution of encrusted cement materials was the predominant factor (39·0% of the total mixed proportion) to change the chemical composition of the seepage water during the ground water flow from the observation wells to the cavern. Integration of the statistical results also imply that ground water flow and hydrogeochemistry were predominantly affected by artificial factors such as cavern operation pressure and dissolution of encrusted cement materials, which were interdependent factors on the observation wells with high cross‐correlation coefficients and pH. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

关于小东沟组

小东沟组由王钰等(1954)命名。由于小东沟组内涵含混,自创建以来,已使许多地层工作者对小东沟组的涵义、时代的理解,特别是使用于区域地层划分和对比中造成了一定困难。作者从小东沟组岩石组合、生物群特征,以及在地层系统中的位置等方面对小东沟组涵义进行了重新厘定,认为小东沟组是独立于小岭组之外的晚侏罗世岩石地层单位。鉴于小东沟组存在的缺欠,作者建议在本溪东营坊、新宾东昌台、桓仁暖河子寻找模式剖面。     

Plio-/Pleistocene climate modeling based on oxygen isotope time series from deep-sea sediment cores: The Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm and chaotic climate systems

The question whether paleoclimatic systems are governed by a small number of significant variables (low-dimensional systems) is of importance for modeling such systems. As indicators for global Plio-/Pleistocene climate variability, four marine, sedimentary oxygen isotope time series are analyzed with regard to their dimensionality using a modified Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm. An artificial, low-dimensional chaotic time series (Hénon map) is included for the validation of the method. In order to extract equidistant data the raw data are interpolated with the Akima-subspline method since this method minimizes the change in variance due to the interpolation. The nonlinear least-squares Gauss-Marquardt regression method is used instead of the linear least-squares fit to the logarithmically transformed points, in order to acquire an unbiased estimate of the correlation dimension. The dependences of the estimated correlation dimension on the embedding dimension do not indicate a small number (i.e., less than 5) of influencing variables on the investigated paleoclimatic system, whereas the low dimension for the Hénon map is verified (dimension 1.22–1.28). Because of the limited amount of data in the oxygen isotope records, dimensions greater than about 5 cannot be examined.     

南方涛动、热带海温与西北太平洋副高的联系

本文应用统计方法,首先探讨南方涛动指数与西北太平洋副热带高压的联系,然后分析赤道和热带太平洋区域海温对南方涛动的响应情况,同时分析南方涛动响应区域的海温与当时及滞后的西北太平洋副热带高压的联系,从中探讨南方涛动、厄尔尼诺海温异常及西北太平洋副热带高压之间的一种可能的相互作用机制。     

一类ENSO事件与四川地区粮食产量的相关分析

本文对1949年以来出现的10次ENSO事件进行了分析,得出如下结果:开始於东太平洋增暖和中大平洋增暖的两类ENSO现象分别对应四川地区粮食产量的减产和增产。此结果对四川地区粮食生产政策的制定及产量的预测研究均有较重要的参考价值。     

Multivariate canonical correlation techniques: An economic approach for evaluation of pollutants in soil and sediments of Bombay region, India

Multivariate canonical correlation analysis has been carried out taking physical variables (mean, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis) as predictors and chemical variables (Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn) as responses from the soils and sediments of Thane Creek and Ulhas River areas in Bombay, India. Soil samples provide the first canonical correlation to the presence of more clay fractions, which controls the concentration of trace elements such as Co, Fe, and Ni. In sediment samples, the first canonical correlation explains the role of mean particle size in controlling the concentration of Pb and Ni. The second correlation shows the role of clay minerals in controlling the concentration of the trace elements such as Fe and Zn. The plot of transformed scores of first canonical correlation for soil illustrate the high correlation between sets of variables as all points are grouped closely within an ellipsoidal field. The plot of transformed scores of first canonical correlation illustrate that there is a clear distinction between the type of sediments collected from Thane creek and the Ulhas river region.     

Multifractal and Chaotic Analysis of Vrancea (Romania) Intermediate-depth Earthquakes: Investigation of the Temporal Distribution of Events

The Vrancea seismic region contains an isolated cluster of events beneath the Carpathian Arc Bend in Romania, dipping to about 200 km depth. Seismic activity mainly occurs at intermediate depths (h > 60 km). The main goal of the paper is to perform an in-depth, complex analysis of the occurrence times of these intermediate-depth events. We also try to show the versatility of the methods used to characterize different aspects of the seismicity evolution and to offer a user-friendly software toolbox to do most of the related computations. The earthquake catalog used in this study spans from 1974 to 2002 and includes only the intermediate-depth events. In the first part of the paper, we analyze the multifractal characteristics of the temporal distribution of earthquakes. The study reveals two distinct scaling regimes. At small scales we found a clear nonhomogeneous, multifractal pattern, while at large scales the temporal distribution of events shows a monofractal, and close to Poissonian (random), behavior. The multifractal behavior at small scales (minutes-hours) is shown to be clearly an effect of the short aftershock sequences that occurred after some major Vrancea earthquakes. In the second part of the paper we analyze whether our temporal series shows a persistent (or anti-persistent) long-term behavior, by using the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) method. The results suggest that the analyzed temporal series of Vrancea earthquakes is a non-correlated process. In part three of the paper we seek to determine whether the dynamics of our earthquake system (described by the occurrence time of Vrancea earthquakes) is deterministically chaotic, deriving from a rather simple evolution law, or whether it is stochastic and is generated by a system that possesses many degrees of freedom. The results suggest that our signal is stochastic (probably does not possess an attractor). The limited time-span of the catalog and the analysis performed in this paper cannot rule out the emergence of an interesting, quasi-deterministic and low-dimensional structure in the case of major Vrancea earthquakes.Acknowledgement One of the authors (BE) is grateful to the Japanese Ministry of Education for providing him a Monbusho scholarship for studying in DPRI, Kyoto University. We thank Z.R. Struzik, M Holschneider, J. Mori and D. Kaplan for their useful comments, and acknowledge the support of the staff of DPRI, Kyoto University and the National Inst. for Earth Physics, Bucharest. We thank the two reviewers, M.B. Geilikman and M. Anghel, for their useful suggestions which improved the quality of this work.