Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in Beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2004 to March 2005, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution emission inventory and improves the forecast level of air quality. Also this work employed a way of combining point and area forecasting, i.e. taking the products of CMAQ for a center site to forecast air pollution for other sites in vicinity with the scheme of model products "reanalysis" and average over the "area".     

Application of Characteristics of Seismogenic Structures in the Determination of Parameter of Potential Seismic Source Areas

INTRODUCTIONThe method of probabilistic seismic risk analysis was proposed by Cornell in1968(Cornell,1968).After more than30years development,it has become the main method for seismic riskassessment of engineering sites and seismic zonation,and has been u…     

Ruthenium-ion-catalyzed oxidation of asphaltenes and oil-source correlation of heavy oils from the Lunnan and Tahe oilfields in the Tarim Basin, NW China

The identification of marine source rocks in the Tarim Basin is debated vigorously. The intention of this paper is to investigate the asphahenes in heavy oils from the Lunnan and Tabe oilfields and Well TD2 with ruthenium-ions-catalyzed oxidation technique (RICO), in order to explore its role in oil-oil and oil-source correlations, The RICO products included n-alkanoic acids, α,ω-di-n-alkanoic acids, branched alkanoic acids, tricyclic terpanoic acids, hopanoic acids, gammacerane carboxylic acid , regular sterane carboxylic acids and 4-methylsterane carboxylic acids. The n-alkyl chains and biomarkers bounded on the asphaltenes were of unsusceptibility to biodegradation. The distribution and absolute concentrations of n-alkanoic acids in the RICO products of heavy oils from the Lunnan and Tabe oilfields are different from those of Well TD2. The biomarkers bounded on the asphahenes, especially steranes, have a distribution trend similar to that of the counterparts in saturates. The sterane carboxylic acids and 4-methylsterane carboxylic acids in the RICO products of heavy oils from the Lunnan and Tahe oilfields, dominated by C30 sterane and C31 4-methylsterane carboxylic acids, respectively, are significantly different from those of the heavy oils of Well TD2, whose dominating sterane and 4-methylsterane carboxylic acids are C28 sterane and C29 4-methylsterane acids, respectively. The RICO products of the asphaltenes further indicate that the Middle-Upper Ordovician may be the main source rocks for heavy oils from the Lunnan and Tabe oilfields.     

Correlation Fractal and Multifractal Characteristics of Seismic Activity in the Taiwan Area, China

Based on the analysis of newly collected data of plate tectonics, distribution of active faults and crustal deformation, the Taiwan area is divided into two seismic regions and six seismic belts. Then, correlation fractal dimensions of all the regions and belts are calculated, and the fractal characteristics of hypocenteral distribution can be quantitatively analyzed. Finally, multifractal dimensions Dq and f(α) are calculated by using the earthquake catalog of the past 11 years in the Taiwan area. This study indicates that (1) there exists a favorable corresponding relationship between spatial images of seismic activity described with correlation fractal dimension analysis and tectonic settings; (2) the temporal structure of earthquakes is not single but multifractal fractal, and the pattern of Dq variation with time is a good indicator for predicting strong earthquake events.     

Determining risk sources and strategies among farmers of contrasting risk awareness: A case study for Cukurova region of Turkey

In this paper, the results of a survey conducted in the Cukurova region of Turkey are presented. The aim of this research is to identify groups of farmers who differ in their risk sources and risk management strategies. The respondents to the survey were divided into three risk attitude groups, risk averse, risk seeking and risk neutral. Factor analysis has been conducted on information obtained from 112 farmers in 2000. From the findings of the research, risk sources were labelled as environmental, price, catastrophe, input costs, production and technological, political, finance, personal, marketing, health and social security. The dimensions of risk strategies were named as diversification, off-farm income, marketing, planning, financing and security.     

C-isotope Composition of Carbonates from Indravati Basin, India: Implications for Regional Stratigraphic Correlation

The Indravati Basin represents an unmetamorphosed and unfossiliferous sequence and shows a broad similarity in lithological association with other Purana Basins of Central India. The carbonates belonging to Indravati Basin have on average, moderately positive δ13 C values (up to +4.5). Numerous successions reported from other parts of world, show similar δ13 C values and contain evidence to suggest that the latest Mesoproterozoic to early Neoproterozoic period may represent an isotopically recognizable interval globally. The elevated δ13 C values of Indravati Basin are also correlatable with other Purana Basins in India including Upper Vindhyan Supergroup.