城市植被覆盖变化可预测性及其空间格局的定量递归分析——以深圳市为例

由于人口的快速增加和经济要素的大量聚集,城市是下垫面性质改变最为显著的区域。本文应用定量递归分析技术对1999~2006年逐旬的1km SPOT-VEGETATION NDVI数据进行分析,以期揭示NDVI时间系列的非线性动态特征及其空间格局。研究结果表明,深圳市的NDVI时间系列的RQA特征值居于随机系列和确定性系列之间,属于含有随机成分的确定性系列。不同覆被类型下NDVI系列的特性不同,林地区的NDVI系列规则性最高,农地区次之,建设用地区最差,表明人类活动作为一种噪声对于NDVI系列性质的扰动。用二阶Rényi熵作为NDVI系列的可预测性指标,其空间格局表现为海拔高、坡度大、林地分布集中的西北和东南部可预测性高,而海拔相对低、建设用地相对集中的中南部地区可预测性低。     

甘肃春季沙尘暴环流特征及其时间尺度诊断分析

根据43a甘肃春季沙尘暴日数距平序列选取了甘肃春季沙尘暴多发年和少发年。对甘肃春季沙尘暴多发年和少发年前期冬季(12月至翌年2月)和同期春季(3~5月)500hPa环流距平场合成结果表明, 前期冬季东亚大槽、同期春季蒙古气旋是影响沙尘暴发生多少的主要系统。西风指数和东亚北风指数计算结果表明, 沙尘暴多发年与少发年指数差异明显, 沙尘暴与冬季风联系紧密。甘肃春季沙尘暴小波变换分析, 清楚地反映沙尘暴不同频域的变化特征及其交替作用; 不同频域小波系数变化说明21世纪初沙尘暴将趋于增加。     

Upper Oligocene-Lower Miocene shallowing-upwardlacustrine sequences controlled by periodic and non-periodic processes(Ebro Basin, northeastern Spain)

The lacustrine facies from two sections (Candasnos and Fraga) ofthe Oligocene-Miocene Torrente de Cinca lithostratigraphic Unit in thecentral part of the Ebro Basin (Spain) have been analysed to determine theinfluence of orbital parameters in lacustrine sedimentation. The unit ispredominantly composed of limestones and marls, and represents a shallowlacustrine freshwater system. The sedimentological features of the faciesstudied demonstrate that the lower part of the Candasnos section representsoffshore lacustrine subenvironments whereas the upper part, and the whole ofthe Fraga section, characterise marginal lacustrine areas. Series of stratalthickness variations of limestone, marl, and limestone/marl couplets fromboth sections have been analysed using spectral analysis. This shows thatinformation corresponding to periodic cycles only appears in the offshorefacies, that is to say, in the lower part of Candasnos section, and disappearsin the marginal facies where non-periodic cycles exist. Furthermore, thespectral analysis of the offshore facies highlights the existence of a peak inthe power spectrum with a period of around 7 (6.8 to 7.8) that can berecognised in the field as shallowing-upward lacustrine sequences.Magnetostratigraphic data from the Candasnos section allow us to establish atime span of 2,808 years for the limestone/marl couplet from the lower partof this section, and between 19,000 and 22,000 years for the periodic cycleidentified, thus representing the climatic precession cycle. Shallowingsequences from marginal areas do not correspond with any periodiccycle.     

沙区绿洲人地系统演进探讨——以民勤盆地为例

资源与环境问题已成为当代人类生存与发展的重大问题,它通过人地系统中人与地之间的相互联系,以各种方式和强度作用于人类。人地系统有其运行规律和演进机制,要建立协调的人地关系、促进沙区绿洲的可持续发展,就必须清楚地了解其人的地系统的动态演进机制。通过分析民勤盆地人地系统的演进过程,提出了人地系统演进的机制和驱动力,从而为更好地调控沙区绿洲人地系统的演进提供依据。     

基于地理探测器的喀斯特不同地貌形态类型区土壤侵蚀定量归因（英文）

The formation mechanism and influencing factors identification of soil erosion are the core and frontier issues of current research. However, studies on the multi-factor synthesis are still relatively lacked. In this study, the simulation of soil erosion and its quantitative attribution analysis have been conducted in different geomorphological types in a typical karst basin based on the RUSLE model and the geodetector method. The influencing factors, such as land use type, slope, rainfall, elevation, lithology and vegetation cover, have been taken into consideration. Results show that the strength of association between the six influencing factors and soil erosion was notably different in diverse geomorphological types. Land use type and slope were the dominant factors of soil erosion in the Sancha River Basin, especially for land use type whose power of determinant(q value) for soil erosion was much higher than other factors. The q value of slope declined with the increase of relief in mountainous areas, namely it was ranked as follows: middle elevation hill> small relief mountain> middle relief mountain. Multi-factors interactions were proven to significantly strengthen soil erosion, particularly for the combination of land use type with slope, which can explain 70% of soil erosion distribution. It can be found that soil erosion in the same land use type with different slopes(such as dry land with slopes of 5° and above 25°) or in the diverse land use types with the same slope(such as dry land and forest with a slope of 5°), varied much. These indicate that prohibiting steep slope cultivation and Grain for Green Project are reasonable measures to control soil erosion in karst areas. Based on statistics of soil erosion difference between diverse stratifications of each influencing factor, results of risk detector suggest that the amount of stratification combinations with significant difference accounted for 55% at least in small relief mountain and middle relief mountainous areas. Therefore, the spatial heterogeneity of soil erosion and its influencing factors in different geomorphological types should be investigated to control karst soil loss more effectively.     

Groundwater flow regime under natural conditions as inferred from past evidence and contemporary field observations in a semi-arid basin: Cuenca de la Independencia, Guanajuato, México

This study was carried out in the Cuenca de la Independencia, a semi-arid basin in Central Mexico. The objective is to describe the main features of a groundwater flow regime under natural conditions, based on groundwater discharge manifestations. Information obtained from paleoecological, paleontological, archaeological and historical data suggests that, prior to heavy development (starting in the 1950s), the hydrogeologic regime was characterized by a larger groundwater availability in a more humid and colder climate. Manifestations associated to groundwater discharges are springs, lagoons, wetlands, saline soils, chalcedony deposits, phreatophytes, thermalism, and artesianism. The different types of manifestations and their position in the basin indicate the influence of groundwater flow systems hierarchically nested, forming concentric zones at ground level. The groundwater flow regime corresponds to a classical gravity-induced flow system with generation of local, intermediate and regional patterns. Integrating several types of data to establish the flow geometry and its dynamics has proven a useful tool to increase understanding of the original groundwater regimes. This approach can also be applied in other over-exploited semi-arid basins.     

河北省粮食生产发展趋势及其地区差异

河北省2002年粮食作物播种面积为6484.4千hm2,其中小麦占37.8%,玉米39.7%;粮食、棉花、油料的种植比例为15.9:1.0:1.6。北部四地市粮食播面占全省的23.3%,南部七地市76.7%。2002年粮食总产2435.8万t,为1949年的5.2倍;粮食单产3756kg/hm2,为1949年的5.8倍;人均粮食362kg,为1949年的2.4倍。北部地区粮食总产占全省的17.2%,南部地区82.8%。据回归分析与双向差分建模分析,2010年粮食总产可达3087.5万t,粮食单产4478kg/hm2,人均粮食460kg。据灰关联分析,影响粮食总产的主要因子有:粮食单产、农副产品收购价格总指数(1978年=100)、农业机械总动力、农村用电量、农田化肥施用量与有效灌溉面积等。根据笔者预测,若2010年农业机械总动力达8989万kw,农村用电量240.8亿kwh,农田化肥施用量356.1万t,有效灌面4549.2千hm2,则其粮食单产可达4664kg/hm2;若2010年仍保持2000年小麦播面所占比例(0.387),玉米播面所占比例达0.439,则其单产可达4387kg/hm2。     

超临界地热资源的地球物理分析——以鲜水河高温水热系统为例

鲜水河高温水热系统位于川西地热区, 是我国重要的水热型地热资源区和高温地热发电工程建设选区, 其深层超临界地热资源可以大幅提高热-功转换效率和地热发电能力, 具有极大的应用价值.超临界地热资源是地热学的全新研究方向, 研究深层超临界地热资源促进地热学拓宽研究领域, 具有重要的科学意义.本文利用地球物理资料、地热地质资料, 对鲜水河高温水热系统超临界水热流体构造条件、有利赋存部位、热结构与热状态开展计算分析.结果表明: 鲜水河断裂带浅源小震群与深层超压热流体层相关, 热泉群串珠状负重力异常圈闭之下超厚沉积地层是赋存深层超临界地热流体储层的有利构造部位; 康定中谷—二道桥—榆林宫热水区的水源补给、热源补给、水热循环通道等地热地质条件优良, 其下方存在酸性岩浆活动, 是形成高温水热系统浅层热储、深层超临界热液区的重要热源条件.我们认为: 鲜水河断裂带是深部热流体上升至浅表产生强烈水热活动的通道, 沿此通道, 在160~250 ℃温度区间, 是鲜水河水热系统地热储层的赋存区域; 在350~400 ℃温度区间, 是深层超临界流体(H2O、CO2)的赋存区域; 随温泉水大量溢出的高浓度CO2地热气体, 伴随出现pH值略小于7的弱酸性热水, 其下方是形成深层超临界地热资源的有利区域.     

中部六省R&D经费投入与结构分析

以中部六省为研究对象,对R&D经费投入总量及强度、R&D经费的支出结构与来源结构进行深入分析,并找出与先进地区或国家相比存在的差距。研究结果表明:中部六省之间,R&D经费投入与结构均存在较大差异。总体而言,中部六省R&D经费投入不足,强度偏低;对原始创新重视程度不够,R&D经费支出在科研机构与高校所占的比例以及在基础研究与应用研究所占的比例偏低;政府对R&D活动支持的力度有待进一步提升。