华东地区月平均气温统计降尺度方法比较

用中国地面气象观测站的逐日气温观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分别使用基于多元线性回归(MLR)和3种主成分分析(PCA)的统计降尺度方法,对1959-2008年的华东地区的月平均气温分两个时段进行统计降尺度分析并加以检验,比较了不同降尺度方法的结果。结果表明:对于华东地区气温的统计降尺度预报,基于MLR的统计降尺度方法相对于3种PCA方法而言,对单站年际变化模拟方面有一定优势。PCA方法应用于统计降尺度时,预报因子的区域选择是影响统计降尺度结果的重要因素之一。对于温度进行统计降尺度分析时,预报因子中包含温度因子是非常必要的;所试验的4种降尺度方法,对各站点多年平均情况的模拟要好于对区域平均的年际变化的模拟。     

A brief introduction to BNU-HESM1.0 and its earth surface temperature simulations

Integrated assessment models and coupled earth system models both have their limitations in understanding the interactions between human activity and the physical earth system. In this paper,a new human–earth system model,BNUHESM1.0,constructed by combining the economic and climate damage components of the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate Change and Economy to the BNU-ESM model,is introduced. The ability of BNU-HESM1.0 in simulating the global CO2 concentration and surface temperature is also evaluated. We find that,compared to observation,BNU-HESM1.0underestimates the global CO2 concentration and its rising trend during 1965–2005,due to the uncertainty in the economic components. However,the surface temperature simulated by BNU-HESM1.0 is much closer to observation,resulting from the overestimates of surface temperature by the original BNU-ESM model. The uncertainty of BNU-ESM falls within the range of present earth system uncertainty,so it is the economic and climate damage component of BNU-HESM1.0 that needs to be improved through further study. However,the main purpose of this paper is to introduce a new approach to investigate the complex relationship between human activity and the earth system. It is hoped that it will inspire further ideas that prove valuable in guiding human activities appropriate for a sustainable future climate.     

后装配组件的分析与设计方法

后装配组件的分析与设计方法是为如何方便组装、拆卸和替换组件而提出的，它是建立在面向对象和基于组件的软件工程基础上，把组件的概念引入到需求分析中，建立起组件与具体需求的映射关系。该方法能根据用户需求变化直接确定要维护的组件，从而提高组件的适应能力。     

Some things old, some things new: The spatial representations and politics of change of the peak oil relocalisation movement

Despite continued uncertainty about the physical realities and political, economic and social implications of peak oil, combined concerns about oil scarcity, climate change and globalisation has spawned an energetic relocalisation movement dedicated to achieving a comprehensive reduction in oil dependency through community-scale initiatives. This paper uses a discourse approach to examine the emergence, geographical spread and practices of the Transition Network, a UK-originated relocalisation movement now involving 186 local initiatives in the UK and other countries. We trace the movement’s drawing upon, and innovation from, discourses and techniques used by other grassroots environmental movements to promote a spatial representation of peak oil as an inevitable and geographically undiscriminating problem, and its use of addiction metaphors and participatory techniques to promote personal and community-scale energy descent initiatives as a viable and necessary alternative to globalisation. We also analyse the spatial representations and techniques used in the Network’s “rhizomic” spread across multiple localities around the world and embedding in communities where relocalisation initiatives are established. We conclude by examining the future challenges these spatial constructions of peak oil pose for the relocalisation movement.     

Oil in parallax: Scarcity, markets, and the financialization of accumulation

Relations between oil scarcity, production, investment, and price have become increasingly mediated and shaped by financial markets. Yet, the mediation of finance is absent in peak oil narratives, which posit a direct relation between the availability of oil in the ground and its price on the market. The orthodox critique of peak oil deconstructs its basis in geological limits only to reproduce the argument from scarcity and reverse the relationship between the price of oil and its availability on the market. Both narratives are formulated in physical space and do not account for the degree to which the oil market has become infused by the logic of finance. Critical political economy, on the other hand, demonstrates the extent to which finance has transformed capital accumulation, only to render material production somewhat irrelevant to the accumulation of capital. This is equally problematic, given oil companies’ continuing investment in production and reserve expansion. The relation between accumulation, investment, and production under finance needs to be examined rather than discarded. I argue that finance has emancipated the circulation of oil in the world market from its circulation in physical space, fragmenting the oil market into a physical and a financial component, but reintegrating both under the dominance of financial logic without transcending their duality and their differences. I explicate this relation by examining the circulation of oil in trade and investment under the dictates of finance to open questions on current theorizations of oil scarcity in relation to prices, markets, and investment.     

塔里木盆地英买力地区原油地球化学特征与族群划分

塔里木盆地英买力地区油气成因复杂,采用多馏分、多组分化学成分分析及单体烃碳同位素分析途径,对该区海相、陆相油进行精细分析。结果表明,英买力油田主要有两大类油组,分别是南部YM2井区的海相油(I类)和北部YM7井区的陆相油(Ⅱ类),各自具有典型的海相油与陆相油的特征。进一步分析表明,两大油组内部仍有分异。将第二油组进一步分为两亚类,以中、古生界产层为主的正常黑油和重质油为一类(Ⅱa),以古近系为主的凝析油为另一类(Ⅱb)。两亚类原油正构烷烃单体烃同位素稍有差异,芳烃组成与分布具有显著差异。较之于Ⅱa原油,Ⅱb原油富含联苯系列与氧芴系列、不同类型芳烃系列中以低分子量同系物占绝对优势,其正构烷烃单体烃碳同位素更重,与相邻的羊塔克地区原油表现出一定的相似性,表明两者之间有一定的成因联系,前者可能为混源油,由位于库车坳陷中拜城凹陷提供两种陆相烃源岩。英买力地区陆相油并非以往确认的一种成因类型,可能至少由两套性质迥异的中生界烃源岩供烃。英买力地区第一类海相油(I类)尽管生物标志物特征相近,但分析原油的单体烃碳同位素具有显著差异,同样存在油气混源的可能。英买力地区海、陆相原油特征与成因的深入剖析,对于该区精细油源确认、油气成藏机制乃至油气资源评价具有重要意义。     

缝洞型油藏大尺度可视化水驱油物理模拟实验及机理

缝洞型碳酸盐岩油藏由于其缝洞组合关系的复杂性,使得储层流体的渗流规律有别于常规油藏。根据某油田奥陶系缝洞型碳酸盐岩的实际情况设计制作了大尺度可视化物理模型,并按照现场实际设计了二注三采的实验井网及注采方案,以应用物理模拟实验来研究缝洞型碳酸盐岩油藏的开发特征及油井生产规律。结合实验结果,利用J.Cruz-Hernández建立的数学模型对生产数据进行拟合,以研究缝洞型碳酸盐岩油藏中流体的渗流机理,J.Cruz-Hernández数学模型中的空间系数和流动速度对采收率影响较大,提出模型的改进应考虑重力分异作用、溶洞比例等影响因素。     

含油气球冠模型三维重力归一化总梯度场特征

重力归一化总梯度的三维计算中,将圆滑滤波因子分别引入向下延拓和导数换算响应因子中,推导了其计算公式及数值实现过程,同时给出了具体的计算步骤;对含油气球冠模型的三维归一化总梯度场特征进行了分析与研究。研究结果表明,对于含油气球冠模型来说,不同于均匀球冠模型在各个深度的切平面等值线图中表现出单峰异常的特征,其三维归一化总梯度场的特征表现为:无论在过中心剖面的等值线图还是在某个深度的切片图中,只有当截止频率取值适当时才可以表现出"两高夹一低"的典型储油气藏标志特征,若取值不当,其表现出来的特征与均匀球冠模型相似。此外,归一化总梯度场等值线图中出现"两高夹一低"的位置,往往是含油气球冠所在位置和深度。     

Ordovician Carbonate Reservoir Bed Characteristics and ReservoirForming Conditions in the Lungudong Region of the Tarim Basin

<正>Basic characteristics of Ordovician carbonate reservoir beds in the Lungudong region of northeastern part of the Tarim Basin are described in detail and the reservoir-forming conditions of oil and gas are preliminarily discussed in this paper by collecting and sorting out a large amount of data.The carbonate reservoir beds are mainly developed in open-platform and platform marginal facies;the reservoir beds have large changes in and low average values of physical property;the main type is fractured reservoir beds with the fracture-porous type second.The reservoir bed development is chiefly controlled by the distribution of sedimentary facies,tectonic activity and karstification. Whereas the accumulation and distribution of hydrocarbons in the region are controlled by an advantageous structural location,a good reservoir-caprock combination and a favorable transporting system,with the distribution characterized by zones horizontally and belts vertically,the oil and gas are mainly concentrated in areas with structural uplift,densely developed fractures,and surface karst,a vertical vadose zone,and a horizontal undercurrent belt of palaeokarst.     

大南盘江地区构造对油气藏破坏作用研究

大南盘江地区发育多套成熟烃源岩,具有良好的油气成藏条件。但由于烃源岩埋藏深、成熟早,成藏之后经历多期强烈的后期构造运动改造,先前形成的油气藏大都被破坏,导致目前地表出露多处古油藏和油气苗。多年的油气勘探证实,后期的构造运动对油气藏的破坏作用是制约该区油气勘探的关键问题。研究表明,大南盘江地区不同构造单元,油气藏的破坏因素不同。南盘江坳陷古油藏沿深大断裂分布,其破坏的主控因素是断裂活动;桂中坳陷古油藏和油气显示出露区缺失区域盖层,其破坏的主控因素是构造抬升剥蚀;十万大山盆地古油藏目前残留的烃类主要是固体沥青,镜质体反射率(Rb)大都落在2.0以上,推算经历的最高热解温度均大于200℃,而且古油藏的分布区也是印支期岩浆岩集中分布区,因此推断该区油气藏破坏的主控因素是岩浆活动。