准噶尔盆地东部沙帐地区中二叠统平地泉组一段致密油源储组合模式

综合利用录井、镜下薄片及压汞等资料,对准噶尔盆地东部沙帐地区中二叠统平地泉组一段致密油储集层岩性、储集空间和孔隙结构等特征进行了分析,在此基础上结合平一段致密油纵向岩性组合特征及源储关系,总结了平一段致密油源储组合模式。研究发现平一段致密油储集层岩性以碎屑岩为主,云质类岩石次之,储层孔隙结构具"粗态型"、"偏细态型"和"细态型",储集空间表现为常规孔隙与纳米孔隙并存;平一段源储组合表现为"泥包砂"、"砂包泥"和"砂泥互层"。研究表明:平一段储集层表现为致密储层特征,纳米孔喉是致密油储层的主体孔喉,平一段致密油具有源储一体型、源储交接型和源储隔离型三类组合模式。     

A modeling study of effective radiative forcing and climate response due to tropospheric ozone

This study simulates the effective radiative forcing(ERF) of tropospheric ozone from 1850 to 2013 and its effects on global climate using an aerosol–climate coupled model, BCC AGCM2.0.1 CUACE/Aero, in combination with OMI(Ozone Monitoring Instrument) satellite ozone data. According to the OMI observations, the global annual mean tropospheric column ozone(TCO) was 33.9 DU in 2013, and the largest TCO was distributed in the belts between 30°N and 45°N and at approximately 30°S; the annual mean TCO was higher in the Northern Hemisphere than that in the Southern Hemisphere;and in boreal summer and autumn, the global mean TCO was higher than in winter and spring. The simulated ERF due to the change in tropospheric ozone concentration from 1850 to 2013 was 0.46 W m~(-2), thereby causing an increase in the global annual mean surface temperature by 0.36℃, and precipitation by 0.02 mm d~(-1)(the increase of surface temperature had a significance level above 95%). The surface temperature was increased more obviously over the high latitudes in both hemispheres, with the maximum exceeding 1.4?C in Siberia. There were opposite changes in precipitation near the equator,with an increase of 0.5 mm d~(-1)near the Hawaiian Islands and a decrease of about-0.6 mm d~(-1)near the middle of the Indian Ocean.     

The Upstream “Strong Signals” of the Water Vapor Transport over the Tibetan Plateau during a Heavy Rainfall Event in the Yangtze River Basin

A heavy rainfall event that occurred over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin(YRB) during July11–13 2000 is explored in this study. The potential/stream function is used to analyze the upstream "strong signals" of the water vapor transport in the Tibetan Plateau(TP). The studied time period covers from 2000 LST 5 July to 2000 LST 15 July(temporal resolution: 6 hours). By analyzing the three-dimensional structure of the water vapor flux, vorticity and divergence prior to and during the heavy rainfall event, the upstream "strong signals" related to this heavy rainfall event are revealed. A strong correlation exists between the heavy rainfall event in the YRB and the convective clouds over the TP. The "convergence zone" of the water vapor transport is also identified, based on correlation analysis of the water vapor flux two days and one day prior to, and on the day of, the heavy rainfall. And this "convergence zone" coincides with the migration of the maximum rainfall over the YRB. This specific coupled structure actually plays a key role in generating heavy rainfall over the YRB. The eastward movement of the coupled system with a divergence/convergence center of the potential function at the upper/lower level resembles the spatiotemporal evolution of the heavy rainfall event over the YRB. These upstream "strong signals" are clearly traced in this study through analyzing the three-dimensional structure of the potential/stream function of upstream water vapor transport.     

Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part I: Initial uncertainties

This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfalling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions (“initials”, hereafter), which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.     

基于FY3A/MERSI资料分析广东省气溶胶光学厚度分布

利用国产极轨气象卫星FY3A的MERSI AOD产品分析2010—2013年广东省气溶胶光学厚度的分布规律。结果表明:MERSI AOD产品与地面太阳光度计实测数据的相关系数为0.72,其平均绝对值误差为0.12,均方根误差为0.15,数据精度可满足研究需要;从AOD的空间分布看,珠三角西翼东翼山区五市,其中佛山市、东莞市、中山市为广东省AOD均值最高的地区,梅州市、河源市为广东省AOD均值最低的地区;从AOD的时间分布看,2010—2013年间,AOD呈现先升高后降低的趋势,2011年为拐点,与此同时,AOD还表现出明显的季节变化特征,春季为AOD高值期,夏季、秋季次之,冬季最低。     

月动力延伸预报500hPa高度场检验及其在重庆月气候预测中降尺度应用

根据2015年国家气候中心实时下发的第二代月动力延伸模式(DERF2.0)逐日资料和历史回算资料,统计构建不同时间起报的月500hPa高度场格点数据序列,针对重庆2月气温和8月降水量方差和预测难度较大的事实,分别分析2010-2014年逐年1月和7月16日、21日、26日、31日起报的2月和8月500hPa高度场预报场与同期NCEP资料实况场的分布型,结果表明：预测效果低纬好于中高纬,8月总体好于2月;基于上述滚动的500hPa预报场,试验了4个关键区和5种统计降尺度方法,对重庆2010-2015年2月气温和2010-2014年8月降水量进行回报预测和检验结果表明,16日起报的模式场对2月气温有较好的参考价值,配合最好的关键区为本区上空,而降尺度方案中Lamb方法效果最佳,二者结合的预测效果最好;8月降水回报检验表明,虽然8月降水预测效果不如2月气温,但在预测关键区取自定义关键区时,车氏方法的降尺度方案预测效果相对较好。     

1998-2009年间台风不活跃期间热带云团活动分析

热带云团是台风生成的前兆,虽然一些研究将近20 a来台风不活跃与大尺度环境场相联系,但是还没有人分析台风不活跃期热带云团的活动特点。本文利用目前仅有的1989-2009年全球热带云团资料,分析了西北太平洋热带云团近20 a的变化特征。1998年以后西北太平洋台风生成减少主要发生在7-10月,集中在南海（13～23°N,110～120°E）和西北太平洋台风活动区域的东部（13～23°N,145～170°E）。热带云团除1月外各月都有增加的趋势,特别是与台风生成显著减少区域相联系的热带云团活动具有显著的增加趋势。通过对NCEP/NCAR再分析资料分析发现,1998年后热带云团活动增加与环境风垂直切变增加有关,而增强的垂直切变不利于台风生成。     

无人直升机搭载大气颗粒物采样装置的前期地面评估

与搭载气溶胶观测和分析仪器测量相比,利用无人直升机搭载气囊采集高空大气颗粒物是一种经济、便捷和安全的采集方式。为了解无人直升机采样装置的采样效果,选择2014年10月至2015年3月的4次重污染天气过程,由无人直升机搭载气囊采集大气颗粒物,然后利用气溶胶采样器采集气囊内的大气颗粒物样品并计算采样时间,再利用气溶胶采样器采集相同时间段内的地面大气颗粒物(气囊外),并将两者进行对比。结果表明:在稳定的污染天气条件下,采集气囊内的大气颗粒物,与相同时间段内利用气溶胶采样器直接采集气囊外的大气颗粒物相比,两种方式采集到的大气颗粒物质量最大差值29%,最小差值11%,平均为21%;利用无人直升机的大气采样装置采集大气颗粒物对碳气溶胶组分影响很小,气囊内与气囊外OC/TC最大相差2.0%,最小相差0.5%。上述结果表明,无人直升机的大气采样装置有比较好的采集效率,利用气囊这种经济、便捷、安全的方式,搭载在无人机平台上,采集高空大气是一种获取气溶胶垂直廓线的有效方法,有望在未来的气溶胶气候和环境研究中提供宝贵数据。     

同化FY3B/IRAS资料对GRAPES分析场影响诊断

GRAPES(Globe and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)变分系统能够同化常规资料和非常规卫星资料,这些被同化的资料究竟对同化系统得到的分析场有何影响,目前国内外尚未见相关的研究文献。为此,首次采用基于信息熵信号自由度思想,诊断风云三号B星(FY3B)红外分光计(Infrared Atmospheric Sounder,IRAS)资料对GRAPES分析场的影响。诊断过程中,采用数值逼近方法,统计2012年12月24日18时到2013年1月22日00时共114个时次IRAS资料对GRAPES分析场影响,结果表明,IRAS中高层通道亮温资料对GRAPES分析场影响比地表通道20观测亮温的影响大,地表通道8和9观测亮温对分析场影响较大。前24个GRAPES变分同化时次每个时次IRAS通道亮温对分析场影响的贡献率分析结果显示,高层通道和H_2O通道贡献率较大。个例分析结果表明,在同化探空资料基础上加入IRAS资料后,温度和湿度增量场变化幅度较大,表明IRAS资料对分析场有降温和增湿作用。     

北京和广州地区云闪初始击穿电场变化特征

对比分析了北京和广州地区各100例云闪初始阶段前30 ms快电场变化波形上初始击穿脉冲的特征。依据脉冲的结构特征,两地区的云闪初始击穿脉冲可分为单极性单峰型、单极性多峰型、双极性单峰型和双极性多峰型脉冲,两地区均以单极性和单峰型脉冲为主。对脉冲参量特征的统计发现,脉冲的10%-90%上升时间、半峰值宽度地区差异性小于脉冲类型差异性;双极性单峰型脉冲的半峰值宽是单极性单峰型的1.2倍。不同类型脉冲过零时间的中值、平均值在10μs左右量级,且广州地区较北京地区的大;云闪初始击穿脉冲宽度平均值显著小于相同地区正地闪的,而脉冲间隔显著大于正地闪的。初始击穿脉冲最为集中的出现在云闪最初的1~2 ms,其比例随时间以显著的负指数分布下降。研究发现,双极性脉冲的过零时间与脉冲宽度之间、起始半周期峰值幅度与过冲幅度之间均存在较好的线性关系。