青藏高原巴颜喀拉地块构造形变特征的数值模拟

1997年以来发生在青藏高原主体的一系列强震均围绕巴颜喀拉地块周缘断裂带分布。在现今GPS观测的约束下,利用弹塑性平面应力有限元模型,模拟分析了巴颜喀拉地块在周缘断裂带控制下的构造形变特征。结果表明,弹性模型不能解释现今利用GPS观测到的巴颜喀拉地块的构造形变特征,当昆仑山断裂带中段和玉树—鲜水河断裂带处于塑性屈服状态（有较大相对滑动）时,计算得到的速度场与GPS的观测值吻合较好,表明该区现今的地壳运动主要被这2条断裂的变形所吸收。进一步的模拟分析发现,如果依据断裂带上强震的复发周期给定各个断裂带的相对塑性屈服强度,则在玉树—鲜水河断裂带和东昆仑断裂带中段进入塑性屈服之后,玛尔盖茶卡—若拉岗日断裂带玛尼段和黑石北湖断裂带会先后进入破裂滑动状态,东昆仑断裂带东段和龙门山断裂带南段最后进入屈服状态,指示巴颜喀拉地块的整体运动在周缘断裂带控制下具有分段性和分期性。     

A time-dependent numerical model of the mild-slope equation

On the basis of the previous studies, the simplest hyperbolic mild-slope equation has been gained and the linear time-dependent numerical model for the water wave propagation has been established combined with different boundary conditions. Through computing the effective surface displacement and transforming into the real transient wave motion, related wave factors will be calculated. Compared with Lin’s model, analysis shows that calculation stability of the present model is enhanced efficiently, because the truncation errors of this model are only contributed by the dissipation terms, but those of Lin’s model are induced by the convection terms, dissipation terms and source terms. The tests show that the present model succeeds the merit in Lin’s model and the computational program is simpler, the computational time is shorter, and the computational stability is enhanced efficiently. The present model has the capability of simulating transient wave motion by correctly predicting at the speed of wave propagation, which is important for the real-time forecast of the arrival time of surface waves generated in the deep sea. The model is validated against analytical solution for wave diffraction and experimental data for combined wave refraction and diffraction over a submerged elliptic shoal on a slope. Good agreements are obtained. The model can be applied to the theory research an d engineering applications about the wave propagation in a biggish area.     

多积云参数化方案热带气旋路径集合预报试验

利用MM5模式采用5种积云参数化方案选项研究了2004～2006年共8个热带气旋路径的集合预报。结果表明,热带气旋路径预报对积云参数化方案的选取是敏感的,积云参数化方案之间优劣互补,而选择无积云参数化方案选项对热带气旋路径的预报有积极的贡献。采用3种路径集合预报方案研究的结果表明,集合方法对热带气旋路径预报有明显的改善,其中无积云参数化Grell、Betts—Miller和Kain—Fritsch4种积云参数化方案选项组合的集合预报效果最好,平均路径误差最小。     

广西中短期极端温度客观预报方法研究

利用欧洲中心(ECMWF)数值预报产品和常规资料,应用MOS预报方法和多元线性回归技术,研究建立了广西90个站1~7d的最高、最低温度预报方程,试报检验效果较好,预报结果在大多数情况下是可用的或是可参考的,为业务提供了有效的省级客观预报指导产品,对误差特点进行了分析并提出了改进方法。     

典型隧道断面形态对拟建滇西大理至瑞丽铁路高黎贡山隧道稳定性影响的数值模拟分析

拟建的大理—瑞丽铁路穿越横断山区南段的滇西南地区,地形、地貌和地质条件都极为复杂,其中高黎贡山深埋超长隧道的工程稳定性问题一直是困扰铁路选线、设计和施工的重大工程难点。针对不同形态隧道断面可能对高黎贡山超长隧道工程稳定性产生的影响问题,在充分综合该区野外地质调查、地应力测量、岩石力学实验等成果与资料的基础上,利用ANSYS有限元应力分析软件对不同形态隧道断面的应力分布进行了有限元计算,给出了应力分布图像,分析了断面应力分布的特点和断面形状对应力分布的影响。同时,计算了围岩的应力与强度比,对2种不同断面的围岩稳定性进行了分析对比,最后根据分析结果对不同隧道断面形态下的隧道稳定性进行了综合评价,并据此提出了铁路隧道断面设计与施工中应重点关注的问题。     

A LAYERED NUMERICAL MODEL FOR SIMULATING THE GENERATION AND PROPAGATION OF INTERNAL TIDES OVER CONTINENTAL SLOPE I. MODEL DESIGN

A layered three-dimensional nonlinear numerical model was constructed to simulate the generation and propagation of internal tides over the continental slope. The simulation was split into external mode computation (EMC) and internal mode computation (IMC) to minimize the computational load. IMC was carried out once after EMC was implemented N times. As to EMC, a semi-implicit numerical scheme was applied in such a way that the pressure gradient terms and the velocity divergence terms were discretized semi-implicitly, but the other terms were discretized explicitly. Eulerian-Lagrangian explicit discretization was applied to the convective terms simultaneously. As a result, the stability of EMC did not depend on the wave celerity and time step was not limited by the CFL condition. More than that, use of the conjugate gradient accelerated Jacobi method further improved the computational efficiency of the model.     

Numerical simulation of the Kuroshio using nested model of three-dimensional baroclinic circulation

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3-D BAROCLINIC NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA I. UPPER CIRCULATION

A three-dimensional baroclinic shelf sea model was employed to simulate the seasonal characteristics of the South China Sea (SCS) upper circulation. The results showed that: in summer, an anticyclonic eddy, after its formation between the Bashi Channel and Dongsha Islands in the northeastern SCS, moves southwestward until it disperses slowly. There exists a northward western boundary current along the east shore of the Indo-China Peninsula in the western SCS and an anticyclonic gyre in the southern SCS. But at the end of summer and beginning of autumn, a weak local cyclonic eddy forms in the Nansha Trough, then grows slowly and moves westward till it becomes a cyclonic gyre in the southern SCS in autumn. At the beginning of winter, there exists a cyclonic gyre in the northern and southern SCS, and there is a southward western boundary current along the east shore of the Indo-China Peninsula. But at the end of winter, an anticyclonic eddy grows and moves toward the western boundary after forming in the Nansha Trough. The eddy‘s movement induces a new opposite sign eddy on its eastern side, while the strength of the southward western boundary current gets weakened. This phenomenon continues till spring and causes eddies in the southern SCS.     

Study on numerical simulation to water lowering in an open coal mine digging

In view of the situation of excavation of open coal mine for the underground water disaster,we should carry out simulation studies for the numerical value of the water lowering project and improve the accuracy and the level of the water lowering project.On the basis of the hydrological geological conditions of certain open mine digging,a more reasonable seepage numerical model was built according to MODFLOW.It was simulated in advance that the process of the confined water level descending with the time,and combining with the actual observations to test the correctness of the model.The calculation showed that the results coincided well with the results of actual measurement.Based on this,different water lowering numerical simulations were built for the open coal mine digging.It could be simulated and forecast that the changes of the groundwater level in drainage process within and outside the mine pit,and it was quantitatively assessed that the possible water lowering result of the opencast water drainage process,which provide an important basis for the actual water lowering project and the possible project disposal.     

Numerical study of an oscillating smaller cylinder in the wake of an upstream larger cylinder

A numerical study of flow around two tandem cylinders with unequal diameters was carried out. The upstream larger cylinder was fixed and the downstream smaller cylinder was allowed to oscillate in the transverse direction only. Comparisons of the experimental and numerical results were made to investigate the effects of the gap ratio on the maximum vibration amplitude and vortex shedding frequency. The results showed that the vibration response of the smaller cylinder was significantly affected by the presence of the upstream larger cylinder, and resulted in greatly reduced vibration amplitudes. With an increasing gap ratio, the vibration amplitude increased. However, the magnitude was lower than that corresponding to a single cylinder (with the same diameter as that of the downstream smaller cylinder) under the same flow conditions.