The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily,Italy

Increasing precipitation extremes are one of the possible consequences of a warmer climate. These may exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, and thus impact the urban environment. Because short‐duration precipitation events are primarily responsible for flooding in urban systems, it is important to assess the response of extreme precipitation at hourly (or sub‐hourly) scales to a warming climate. This study aims to evaluate the projected changes in extreme rainfall events across the region of Sicily (Italy) and, for two urban areas, to assess possible changes in Depth‐Duration‐Frequency (DDF) curves. We used Regional Climate Model outputs from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe area ensemble simulations at a ~12 km spatial resolution, for the current period and 2 future horizons under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario. Extreme events at the daily scale were first investigated by comparing the quantiles estimated from rain gauge observations and Regional Climate Model outputs. Second, we implemented a temporal downscaling approach to estimate rainfall for sub‐daily durations from the modelled daily precipitation, and, lastly, we analysed future projections at daily and sub‐daily scales. A frequency distribution was fitted to annual maxima time series for the sub‐daily durations to derive the DDF curves for 2 future time horizons and the 2 urban areas. The overall results showed a raising of the growth curves for the future horizons, indicating an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation, especially for the shortest durations. The DDF curves highlight a general increase of extreme quantiles for the 2 urban areas, thus underlining the risk of failure of the existing urban drainage systems under more severe events.     

Modelling the effect of changing precipitation inputs on deep soil water utilization

Forests in the Southeastern United States are predicted to experience future changes in seasonal patterns of precipitation inputs as well as more variable precipitation events. These climate change‐induced alterations could increase drought and lower soil water availability. Drought could alter rooting patterns and increase the importance of deep roots that access subsurface water resources. To address plant response to drought in both deep rooting and soil water utilization as well as soil drainage, we utilize a throughfall reduction experiment in a loblolly pine plantation of the Southeastern United States to calibrate and validate a hydrological model. The model was accurately calibrated against field measured soil moisture data under ambient rainfall and validated using 30% throughfall reduction data. Using this model, we then tested these scenarios: (a) evenly reduced precipitation; (b) less precipitation in summer, more in winter; (c) same total amount of precipitation with less frequent but heavier storms; and (d) shallower rooting depth under the above 3 scenarios. When less precipitation was received, drainage decreased proportionally much faster than evapotranspiration implying plants will acquire water first to the detriment of drainage. When precipitation was reduced by more than 30%, plants relied on stored soil water to satisfy evapotranspiration suggesting 30% may be a threshold that if sustained over the long term would deplete plant available soil water. Under the third scenario, evapotranspiration and drainage decreased, whereas surface run‐off increased. Changes in root biomass measured before and 4 years after the throughfall reduction experiment were not detected among treatments. Model simulations, however, indicated gains in evapotranspiration with deeper roots under evenly reduced precipitation and seasonal precipitation redistribution scenarios but not when precipitation frequency was adjusted. Deep soil and deep rooting can provide an important buffer capacity when precipitation alone cannot satisfy the evapotranspirational demand of forests. How this buffering capacity will persist in the face of changing precipitation inputs, however, will depend less on seasonal redistribution than on the magnitude of reductions and changes in rainfall frequency.     

Continuous real‐time analysis of the isotopic composition of precipitation during tropical rain events: Insights into tropical convection

To investigate stable isotopic variability of precipitation in Singapore, we continuously analysed the δ‐value of individual rain events from November 2014 to August 2017 using an online system composed of a diffusion sampler coupled to Cavity Ring‐Down Spectrometer. Over this period, the average value (δ¹⁸O_Avg), the lowest value (δ¹⁸O_Low), and the initial value (δ¹⁸O_Init) varied significantly, ranging from ?0.45 to ?15.54‰, ?0.9 to ?17.65‰, and 0 to ?13.13‰, respectively. All 3 values share similar variability, and events with low δ¹⁸O_Low and δ¹⁸O_Avg values have low δ¹⁸O_Init value. Individual events have limited intraevent variability in δ‐value (Δδ) with the majority having a Δδ below 4‰. Correlation of δ¹⁸O_Low and δ¹⁸O_Avg with δ¹⁸O_Init is much higher than that with Δδ, suggesting that convective activities prior to events have more control over δ‐value than on‐site convective activities. The d‐excess of events also varies considerably in response to the seasonal variation in moisture sources. A 2‐month running mean analysis of δ¹⁸O reveals clear seasonal and interannual variability. Seasonal variability is associated with the meridional movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and evolution of the Asian monsoon. El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a likely driver of interannual variability. During 2015–2016, the strongest El Niño year in recorded history, the majority of events have a δ¹⁸O value higher than the weighted average δ¹⁸O of daily precipitation. δ¹⁸O shows a positive correlation with outgoing longwave radiation in the western Pacific and the Asian monsoon region, and also with Oceanic Niño Index. During El Niño, the convection centre shifts eastward to the central/eastern Pacific, weakening convective activities in Southeast Asia. Our study shows that precipitation δ‐value contains information about El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which has a significant implication for the interpretation of water isotope data and understanding of hydrological processes in tropical regions.     

An experimental study on seismic responses of multifunctional vibration‐absorption reinforced concrete megaframe structures

Two models are tested on a shake‐table. One of the models is a normal reinforced concrete megaframe structure and the other is a multifunctional vibration‐absorption reinforced concrete megaframe structure in which the laminated rubber bearings are placed between the major frame and the minor frames. Two earthquake motions (the El Centro wave and the Taft wave) are used during the test. This paper presents the dynamic characteristic, the seismic responses and the failure mechanism of these two models under varying peak acceleration levels for each of the earthquake motions. The test results demonstrate that the aseismic behavior of a multifunctional vibration‐absorption reinforced concrete megaframe structure is much better than that of a normal reinforced concrete megaframe structure. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic performance of twin curved cable‐stayed bridges

The dynamic behaviour of two curved cable‐stayed bridges, recently constructed in northern Italy, has been investigated by full‐scale testing and theoretical models. Two different excitation techniques were employed in the dynamic tests: traffic‐induced ambient vibrations and free vibrations. Since the modal behaviour identified from the two types of test are very well correlated and a greater number of normal modes was detected during ambient vibration tests, the validity of the ambient vibration survey is assessed in view of future monitoring. For both bridges, 11 vibration modes were identified in the frequency range of 0ndash;10Hz, being a one‐to‐one correspondence between the observed modes of the two bridges. Successively, the information obtained from the field tests was used to validate and improve 3D finite elements so that the dynamic performance of the two systems were assessed and compared based on both the experimental results and the updated theoretical models. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of an interface boundary layer on the resonance properties of a buried structure

This paper presents a model for the analysis of the diffraction of plane waves at a cavity in an infinite homogeneous linear elastic medium supported by a segmented lining. An elastic boundary layer is introduced between the cavity lining and the infinite medium. The boundary layer is simulated by ‘elastic boundary conditions’ in which the stress is proportional to the relative displacement of the lining and of the surrounding medium boundary. A closed‐form analytical solution of the problem was obtained using the Fourier–Bessel series, the convergence of which was proven. It was shown that the number of series terms required to obtain a desired level of accuracy can be determined in advance. Using amplitude–frequency response analysis it was shown that the boundary layer produces additional ‘pseudo‐resonance’ frequencies that depend on the layer properties. These frequencies are almost identical to the eigenvalues obtained from the simple analysis of a segmented elastically supported lining. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating the seismic displacement of friction pendulum isolators based on non‐linear response history analysis

A procedure for developing equations that estimate the isolator displacement due to strong ground motion is applied to buildings isolated with the friction pendulum system. The resulting design equations, based on rigorous non‐linear analysis, offer an alternative to the iterative equivalent‐linear methods used by current U.S. building codes. The governing equations of the system are reduced to a form such that the median normalized displacement of the system due to an ensemble of ground motions is found to depend on only the isolation period—a function of the curvature of the isolator—and the friction force at incipient slip normalized by peak ground velocity. The normalization is effective in minimizing the dispersion of the normalized displacement for an ensemble of ground motions, implying that the median normalized displacement is a reliable estimate of response. The design equations reflect the significant (20 to 38%) increase in displacement when the excitation includes two lateral components of ground motion instead of just one component. Equivalent‐linear methods are shown to underestimate by up to 30% the exact median displacement determined by non‐linear response history analysis for one component of ground motion, and building codes include at most a 4.4% increase for a second component. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic response of a cable‐stayed bridge deck under multi‐component non‐stationary random ground motion

A Markov method of analysis is presented for obtaining the seismic response of cable‐stayed bridges to non‐stationary random ground motion. A uniformly modulated non‐stationary model of the random ground motion is assumed which is specified by the evolutionary r.m.s. ground acceleration. Both vertical and horizontal components of the motion are considered to act simultaneously at the bridge supports. The analysis duly takes into account the angle of incidence of the earthquake, the spatial correlation of ground motion and the quasi‐static excitation. A cable‐stayed bridge is analysed under a set of parametric variations in order to study the non‐stationary response of the bridge. The results of the numerical study indicate that (i) frequency domain spectral analysis with peak r.m.s. acceleration as input could provide more r.m.s. response than the peak r.m.s. response obtained by the non‐stationary analysis; (ii) the longitudinal component of the ground motion significantly influences the vertical vibration of the bridge; and (iii) the angle of incidence of the earthquake has considerable influence on the deck response. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Frequency domain modal analysis of earthquake input energy to highly damped passive control structures

A new complex modal analysis‐based method is developed in the frequency domain for efficient computation of the earthquake input energy to a highly damped linear elastic passive control structure. The input energy to the structure during an earthquake is an important measure of seismic demand. Because of generality and applicability to non‐linear structures, the earthquake input energy has usually been computed in the time domain. It is shown here that the formulation of the earthquake input energy in the frequency domain is essential for deriving a bound on the earthquake input energy for a class of ground motions and for understanding the robustness of passively controlled structures to disturbances with various frequency contents. From the viewpoint of computational efficiency, a modal analysis‐based method is developed. The importance of overdamped modes in the energy computation of specific non‐proportionally damped models is demonstrated by comparing the energy transfer functions and the displacement transfer functions. Through numerical examinations for four recorded ground motions, it is shown that the modal analysis‐based method in the frequency domain is very efficient in the computation of the earthquake input energy. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fundamental study on the response characteristics of drivers during an earthquake based on driving simulator experiments

After the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the expressway structures in Japan were retrofitted and they will not now be seriously damaged under a certain level of strong earthquake motion. However, the stability of a moving vehicle has not been investigated yet. It has been reported that drivers feel seismically induced vibrations, especially in the transverse direction of vehicles. Owing to this phenomenon, drivers have some difficulty in controlling the vehicles during strong shaking. For further safety promotion of the expressway networks, it is important to understand the drivers' reactions to seismic motion. The present authors have performed a series of seismic response analyses of a moving vehicle to investigate its response characteristics based on numerical simulation. However, the responses of the driver were not considered in the simulation process. In order to investigate the drivers' reactions during an earthquake, a series of virtual tests were conducted using a driving simulator. This driving simulator has six servomotor‐powered electric actuators that control its motions. Several types of tests were carried out for different examinees to investigate drivers' responses while controlling the simulator under seismic motion. The results of this study showed that a larger response time lag to strong shaking and over turning of the steering wheel may shift the vehicle into the next lane. According to this finding, trafficaccidents could possibly occur under strong ground shaking in the case of heavy traffic. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.