利用空间聚集的贝叶斯网络评估手足口病发病风险

手足口病是一种常见的传染病,以往的研究表明该疾病与气象、环境和社会经济等因素相关联,其影响关系复杂,而疾病本身体现出较强的区域聚集性,采用普通的线性风险建模方法无法捕捉影响因素的复杂性及空间聚集性。因此,本文以山东省为例,在前人研究的基础上,提出了采用贝叶斯网络综合风险建模方法研究手足口病的发病风险与气象、土地利用、社会经济及空气污染等要素间的关系,并通过引入空间扫描统计聚集结果,将空间聚集引入到贝叶斯网络模型加强其空间推理功能,减少模型的偏差,提高评估的精度。结果表明,本文建立的手足口病空间贝叶斯网络风险模型具有较高的估计效果,引入的空间聚集性较好地融入到贝叶斯概率推理模型中,合理建立预测因子同手足口病发病风险之间的关系。通过对建模结果的解译,分析了手足口病的发病风险影响因素,特别是气候、社会经济及空气污染的影响。本文的空间贝叶斯建模方法及研究结果对手足口病暴发的防控预警具有重要的意义。     

Yardangs in terrestrial ignimbrites: Synergistic remote and field observations on Earth with applications to Mars

The conditions of formation and the form of yardangs in ignimbrites in the Central Andes of Chile, Bolivia, and Argentina may be the most convincing terrestrial analog to the processes and lithology that produce the extensive yardangs of the Medusae Fossae Formation (MFF) of Mars. Through remote and field study of yardang morphologies in the Central Andes we highlight the role that variable material properties of the host lithology plays in their final form. Here, ignimbrites typically show two main facies: an indurated and jointed facies, and a weakly to poorly indurated, ash- and pumice-rich facies. Both facies are vertically arranged in large (erupted volume >100's of km³) ignimbrites resulting in a resistant capping layer, while smaller (10's of km³) ignimbrites are made predominantly of the weakly indurated facies. The two facies have quite different mechanical properties; the indurated facies behaves as strong rock, fails by block collapse and supports steep/vertical cliffs, while the non-indurated facies is more easily eroded and forms gentle slopes and manifests as more subdued erosional forms. In response to aeolian action, the presence of an upper indurated facies results in large, elongate, high aspect ratio (1:20-1:40) megayardangs that form tall (100 m), thin ridges with steep to vertical walls. These are built on a broad apron of the weakly indurated facies with abundant fallen blocks from the upper indurated facies. These terrestrial megayardangs appear to be analogous to megayardangs with associated block fields seen on Mars. Smaller-volume, weakly indurated ignimbrites are sculpted into smaller, stubbier forms with aspect ratios of 1:5-1:10 and heights rarely exceeding 10 m. Excavation of a windward basal moat suggests an erosional progression like that seen in incipient yardangs on Mars. Excavation rates of 0.007-0.003 cm/year are calculated for the weakly indurated ignimbrites. While a persistent strong unidirectional wind is the dominant parameter controlling yardang formation and orientation, a role for flow separation and vorticity is also suggested by our observations at both yardang types. While the indurated facies is commonly pervasively jointed, jointing is of secondary importance in controlling yardang orientation. Serrated margins, a common feature on Mars, result from oblique intersections of jointing with yardang flanks or scarps of ignimbrite. The processes of yardang formation we describe from ignimbrites from the Central Andes are not necessarily specific to ignimbrites, but do connote that degree and distribution of induration is a major control in yardang formation and this has implications for the lithology of the MFF on Mars.     

基于卷积神经网络与条件随机场方法提取乡镇非正规固体废弃物

随着村镇经济建设发展,生活垃圾和工业固体废弃物造成的污染问题日益突出,已经成为制约新农村建设发展和生态文明建设的关键问题,而目前针对乡镇非正规固体废弃物的调查与统计主要依赖全国各乡镇相关部门逐级调查上报,工作量较大。本文基于高分辨率遥感影像,将深度学习模型和条件随机场模型相结合引入到乡镇固体废弃物的提取研究中,探索一种基于深度卷积神经网络的乡镇固体废弃物提取模型。由于固体废弃物在影像上表现为面积小,分布破碎等特点,为了提高工作效率,将模型特分为识别和提取2个部分：① 通过全连接卷积网络（CNN）对固体废弃物进行快速识别判断,筛选感兴趣区域影像块;② 在传统的全卷积神经网络(FCN)的基础上加入条件随机场模型(CRF)提取固体废弃物边界,提高整体分割精度。根据安徽、山西等地区相关部门上报固体废弃物堆放点以及住房与城乡建设部城乡规划管理中心进行野外检查的结果,实验最终识别精度达到86.87%以上;形状提取精度为89.84%,Kappa系数为0.7851,识别与提取精度均优于传统分类方法。同时,该方法已经逐步应用于住房和城乡建设部有关成都、兰州、河北等部分乡镇非正规固体废弃物的核查工作,取得了较为满意的结果。     

粒子群神经网络及其在非线性系统辨识中的应用

介绍了一种新的神经网络权值优化算法——粒子群优（Particle Swarm Optimization，PSO）算法，提出了用粒子群神经网络对非线性系统进行系统辨识的构思。仿真实验结果表明，粒子群算法具有比BP算法更强的非线性系统辨识能力和更好的泛化能力。     

自动气象站数据采集系统的传感器接口

自动气象站观测系统在气象领域中应用广泛,数据采集器是系统中的关键部件,改进了低功耗、多功能、多通道、智能化控制等性能.传感器接口包括DAC实现的可调恒压源和可调恒流源、稳压二极管实现的前端保护、多路模拟开关实现的通道控制和测量类型控制、精密线性光耦合器实现的隔离电路、DAC和仪表放大器实现的增益控制等硬件部件.设计单片机程序实现电路的各种控制及要求功能.经制板、调试,该数据采集器能正常运行.     

北京市GPS网解算时IGS站的选取实验

用实验的方法,讨论了北京市GPS台网在用GAMIT软件解算时,选取IGS基准站的空间分布(南北半球、网内网缘、均匀展布)、数量分布(0到8个IGS站)对解算结果精度的影响。由于受观测站数量和IGS站观测数据质量的影响,在保证精度的前提下,为了提高观测数据的利用率,需要增加IGS站数量。根据2004全年的解算结果,北京台网选择9到10个IGS站较为合适。     

区域重力场相对基准的建立

针对地震系统各区域重力网的现状,提出了一种在没有绝对重力测量资料的情况下,利用网区多年积累的观测资料,建立区域重力场相对基准的方法。实验证明,采用该方法建立的区域重力场相对基准,精度优于５０ｎｍ·ｓ－２,不仅有利于地震重力前兆信息的提取,而且能优化和评定区域重力网的质量,标定和检测重力仪参数及其变化。     

Relationships between fractal road and drainage networks in Wuling mountainous area: Another symmetric understanding of human-environment relations

Symmetrical relationships between humans and their environment have been referred to as an extension of symmetries in the human geographical system and have drawn great attention. This paper explored the symmetry between physical and human systems through fractal analysis of the road and drainage networks in Wuling mountainous area. We found that both the road and drainage networks reflect weak clustering distributions. The evolution of the road network shared a significant self-organizing composition, while the drainage network showed obvious double fraetal characteristics. The geometric fractal dimension of the road network was larger than that of the drainage network. In addition, when assigned a weight relating to hierarchy or length, neither the road network nor drainage network showed a fractal property. These findings indicated that the fractal evolution of the road network shared certain similarities with fractal distribution of the drainage network. The symmetry between the two systems resulted from an interactive process of destroying symmetry at the lower order and reconstructing symmetry at the higher order. The relationships between the fractal dimensions of the rural-urban road network, the drainage network andthe urban system indicated that the development of this area was to achieve the symmetrical isomorphism of physical-human geographical systems.     

An artificial neural network-based snow cover predictive modeling in the higher Himalayas

With trends indicating increase in temperature and decrease in winter precipitation, a significant negative trend in snow-covered areas has been identified in the last decade in the Himalayas. This requires a quantitative analysis of the snow cover in the higher Himalayas. In this study, a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model, an artificial neural network （ANN）, was deployed to predict the snow cover in the Kaligandaki river basin for the next 30 years. Observed climatic data, and snow covered area was used to train and test the model that captures the gross features of snow under the current climate scenario. The range of the likely effects of climate change on seasonal snow was assessed in the Himalayas using downscaled temperature and precipitation change projection from - HadCM3, a global circulation model to project future climate scenario, under the AIB emission scenario, which describes a future world of very rapid economic growth with balance use between fossil and non-fossil energy sources. The results show that there is a reduction of 9% to 46% of snow cover in different elevation zones during the considered time period, i.e., 2Oll to 2040. The 4700 m to 52oo m elevation zone is the most affected area and the area higher than 5200 m is the least affected. Overall, however, it is clear from the analysis that seasonal snow in the Kaligandaki basin is likely to be subject to substantialchanges due to the impact of climate change.     

Spatiotemporal patterns of road network and road development priority in three parallel rivers region in Yunnan, China: An evaluation based on modified kernel distance estimate

Road network is a critical component of public infrastructure,and the supporting system of social and economic development.Based on a modified kernel density estimate(KDE)algorithm,this study evaluated the road service capacity provided by a road network composed of multi-level roads(i.e.national,provincial,county and rural roads),by taking account of the differences of effect extent and intensity for roads of different levels.Summarized at town scale,the population burden and the annual rural economic income of unit road service capacity were used as the surrogates of social and economic demands for road service.This method was applied to the road network of the Three Parallel River Region,the northwestern Yunnan Province,China to evaluate the development of road network in this region.In results,the total road length of this region in 2005 was 3.70×104km,and the length ratio between national,provincial,county and rural roads was 1∶2∶8∶47.From 1989 to 2005,the regional road service capacity increased by 13.1%,of which the contributions from the national,provincial,county and rural roads were 11.1%,19.4%,22.6%,and 67.8%,respectively,revealing the effect of′All Village Accessible′policy of road development in the mountainous regions in the last decade.The spatial patterns of population burden and economic requirement of unit road service suggested that the areas farther away from the national and provincial roads have higher road development priority(RDP).Based on the modified KDE model and the framework of RDP evaluation,this study provided a useful approach for developing an optimal plan of road development at regional scale.