Landslide risk analysis between Giri and Tons Rivers in Himachal Himalaya (India)

The area around Sataun in the Sirmur district of Himachal Pradesh, India (falling between the rivers Giri and Tons; both tributaries of the Yamuna River) was studied for landslide vulnerability on behalf of the inhabitants. The study was made using extensive remote sensing data (satellite and airborne). It is well supported by field evidence, demographic and infrastructural details and aided by Geographic Information System (GIS) based techniques. Field observations testify that slope, aspect, geology, tectonic planes, drainage, and land use all influence landslides in the region. These parameters were taken into consideration using the statistical approach of landslide hazard zonation. Using the census data of 1991, vulnerability of the populace to the landslide hazard was accessed. As most of the infrastructure in the region is concentrated around population centres, population data alone was used for vulnerability studies.     

川西坳陷中段新场地区天然气研究及气源对比

经过大量学者多年的研究总结,川西坳陷中段新场地区具备良好的生、储、盖等成藏组合。结合地质背景及碳同位素、轻烃的研究,认为新场地区天然气主要是Ⅲ型干酪根的煤型气,气藏主要分布在上三叠系的须二段和须四段,以及中侏罗系、上侏罗系地层中。     

岳阳市地质灾害经济损失评估

介绍了岳阳市地质灾害特征,依据区内地质灾害经济损失评估的原则和方法,进行地质灾害现状评估和预测评估,为防治地质灾害提供科学借鉴。     

影响b值计算误差的Monte Carlo实验研究

本文假设地震的发生与时间的关系遵循稳态泊松模型,假设地震震级M服从参数为1/β的指数分布,其中β=b/loge,在此基础上生成地震目录.用最小二乘法估算b值,分别从样本数量、震级间隔、震级误差三方面分析b值误差的大小.统计分析结果表明,b值的标准偏差随着样本数量的增多而减小;随着震级间隔的增大而减小;震级误差使b值的标准误差变大.本文可以为利用真实地震目录求b值时选择适当的方法提供参考.     

模糊方法在地质灾害危险性评价中的应用

地质灾害评估是协调人地关系研究的重要内容,可为大型工程建设的前期工作提供基本依据。本文采用模糊综合评价法,选择历史灾害危险性、潜在灾害危险性2个基本要素和相应的8个评价因子,对甘肃省洮河莲麓水电站建设用地地质灾害危险性进行了评估。结果表明:河谷地貌区和山间盆地地貌区地质灾害危险性中等,中山地貌区地质灾害危险性小。     

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment II: application of strong ground motion simulations

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment (PAHA) has been introduced by Wiemer (Geophys Res Lett 27:3405–3408, 2000). The method, in its original form, utilizes attenuation relations in evaluating peak ground velocity (PGV) exceedence probability. We substitute the attenuation relations together with their uncertainties by strong ground motion simulations for a set of scenarios. The main advantage of such an approach is that the simulations account for specific details of the aftershock source effects (faulting style, slip distribution, position of the nucleation point, etc.). Mean PGVs and their standard deviations are retrieved from the simulation results obtained by the new hybrid k-squared source model, and they are used for the PAHA analysis at a station under study. The model chosen for the testing purposes is inspired by the Izmit A25 aftershock (M _w  = 5.8) that occurred 26 days after the mainshock. The PAHA maps are compared with (1) those obtained by the use of attenuation relations and (2) the peak values of ten selected strong-motion recordings written by the aftershock at epicentral distances <50 km. We conclude that, although the overall hazard decay with increasing fault distance is similar, the PAHA maps obtained by the use of simulations exhibit remanent radiation pattern effect and prolongation in the strike direction due to the directivity effect pronounced for some of the scenarios. As regard the comparison with real data, we conclude that the PAHA maps agree with observed peak values due to appropriate attenuation model adopted in the analysis.     

Truncation of the distribution of ground-motion residuals

Recent studies to assess very long-term seismic hazard in the USA and in Europe have highlighted the importance of the upper tail of the ground-motion distribution at the very low annual frequencies of exceedance required by these projects. In particular, the use of an unbounded lognormal distribution to represent the aleatory variability of ground motions leads to very high and potentially unphysical estimates of the expected level of shaking. Current practice in seismic hazard analysis consists of truncating the ground-motion distribution at a fixed number (ε _max) of standard deviations (σ). However, there is a general lack of consensus regarding the truncation level to adopt. This paper investigates whether a physical basis for choosing ε _max can be found, by examining records with large positive residuals from the dataset used to derive one of the ground-motion models of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project. In particular, interpretations of the selected records in terms of causative physical mechanisms are reviewed. This leads to the conclusion that even in well-documented cases, it is not possible to establish a robust correlation between specific physical mechanisms and large values of the residuals, and thus obtain direct physical constraints on ε _max. Alternative approaches based on absolute levels of ground motion and numerical simulations are discussed. However, the choice of ε _max is likely to remain a matter of judgment for the foreseeable future, in view of the large epistemic uncertainties associated with these alternatives. Additional issues arise from the coupling between ε _max and σ, which causes the truncation level in terms of absolute ground motion to be dependent on the predictive equation used. Furthermore, the absolute truncation level implied by ε _max will also be affected if σ is reduced significantly. These factors contribute to rendering a truncation scheme based on a single ε _max value impractical.     

中国风吹雪区划

分析了我国风吹雪及其变化趋势,指出风吹雪和雪崩不能放在一起区划的原因,提出了风吹雪区划的理论,原则,要求和区划单位系统,指标及方法,据此,把中国风吹雪区划分为２个区域,３个大区,１３个地带,３９个地区和１３１个区,使其更加显示出专门区划的特色。     

自然与人文交互作用下的干旱区典型绿洲耕地动态变化驱动力分析——以新疆于田绿洲为例

 绿洲是干旱区独特的自然景观,是人们生产生活的载体。如何在保持经济发展、提高人民生活水平的基础上保护有限的耕地资源,是关系到干旱区绿洲和谐以及可持续发展的重要问题。选取干旱区典型绿洲——于田县1949\_2004年的自然与人文统计资料,首先分析了五十余年来该县耕地变化的情况。然后从自然与人文两个角度对影响耕地面积变化的因子进行分析,结果表明,自然因素往往构成一定区域绿洲发展的基本限制,人为因素在短时期内,对耕地的变化起着决定性作用,这种作用如果顺应自然因素的限制,则对绿洲发展有利,绿洲稳定性增强;反之,绿洲稳定性减弱,由于新疆绿洲外围多为戈壁及沙漠,因此,对绿洲的利用要遵循自然规律,以保护绿洲为前提,合理利用水等自然资源,否则绿洲的面积随时都有可能缩小。     

BOOK REVIEWS

Books reviewed in this article: Boundary Control and Legal Priniciples . Curtis M. Brown , Walter G. Robillard and Donald A. Wilson . Lost Initiatives: Canada's Forest Industries, Forest Policy, and Forest Conservation . R. Peter Gillis and Thomas R. Roach . The Navajo Atlas: Resources, People, and History of the Dine Bikeyah . James M. Goodman . The City and the Sign . M. Gottdiener AND Alexandros Ph . Lagopoulos , EDS. The Comfortable House: North American Suburban Architecture 1890–1930 . Alan Gowans . Arabic-Islamic Cities. Building and Planning Principles . Besim Salim Hakim . Contemporary Climatology . Ann Henderson -Sellers and Peter J. Robinson . A Trace of Desert Waters . Samuel G. Houghton . Geography, Resources and Environment. Vol. 1: Selected Writings of Gilbert F. White. Vol. 2: Themes from the Work of Gilbert F. White . Robert W. Kates AND Ian Burton , ED. Spatial Dimensions of Unemployment and Underemployment (A Case Study of Rural Punjab) . Gopal Krishan . Maps of the Holy Land: Cartobibliography of Printed Maps, 1475–1900 . Compiled by Eran Laor , assisted by Shoshana Klein . The Geography of Third World Cities . Stella Lowder . A Perspective on U.S. Farm Problems and Agricultural Policy . Lance Mc Kinzie , Timothy G. Baker AND Wallace E. Tyner . Soil Erosion and Its Control. R.P.C . Morgan , ED Geopolitics . Patrick O'Sullivan . Landscape, Meanings and Values . Edmund C. Penning -Rowsell AND David Lowenthal , EDS.