A modelling framework for evaluation of the hydrological impacts of nature‐based approaches to flood risk management,with application to in‐channel interventions across a 29‐km2 scale catchment in the United Kingdom

Nature‐based approaches to flood risk management are increasing in popularity. Evidence for the effectiveness at the catchment scale of such spatially distributed upstream measures is inconclusive. However, it also remains an open question whether, under certain conditions, the individual impacts of a collection of flood mitigation interventions could combine to produce a detrimental effect on runoff response. A modelling framework is presented for evaluation of the impacts of hillslope and in‐channel natural flood management interventions. It couples an existing semidistributed hydrological model with a new, spatially explicit, hydraulic channel network routing model. The model is applied to assess a potential flood mitigation scheme in an agricultural catchment in North Yorkshire, United Kingdom, comprising various configurations of a single variety of in‐channel feature. The hydrological model is used to generate subsurface and surface fluxes for a flood event in 2012. The network routing model is then applied to evaluate the response to the addition of up to 59 features. Additional channel and floodplain storage of approximately 70,000 m³ is seen with a reduction of around 11% in peak discharge. Although this might be sufficient to reduce flooding in moderate events, it is inadequate to prevent flooding in the double‐peaked storm of the magnitude that caused damage within the catchment in 2012. Some strategies using features specific to this catchment are suggested in order to improve the attenuation that could be achieved by applying a nature‐based approach.     

Large‐scale poroelastic fractured reservoirs modeling using the fast multipole displacement discontinuity method

An effective approach to modeling the geomechanical behavior of the network and its permeability variation is to use a poroelastic displacement discontinuity method (DDM). However, the approach becomes rather computationally intensive for an extensive system of cracks, particularly when considering coupled diffusion/deformation processes. This is because of additional unknowns and the need for time‐marching schemes for the numerical integration. The Fast Multipole Method (FMM) is a technique that can accelerate the solution of large fracture problems with linear complexity with the number of unknowns both in memory and CPU time. Previous works combining DDM and FMM for large‐scale problems have accounted only for elastic rocks, neglecting the fluid leak‐off from the fractures into the matrix and its influence on pore pressure and stress field. In this work we develop an efficient geomechanical model for large‐scale natural fracture networks in poroelastic reservoirs with fracture flow in response to injection and production operations. Accuracy and computational performance of the proposed method with those of conventional poroelastic DDM are compared through several case studies involving up to several tens of thousands of boundary elements. The results show the effectiveness of the FMM approach to successfully evaluate field‐scale problems for the design of exploitation strategies in unconventional geothermal and petroleum reservoirs. An example considering faults reveals the impact of reservoir compartmentalization because of sealing faults for both geomechanical and flow variables under elastic and poroelastic rocks. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding the relative impacts of natural processes and human activities on the hydrology of the Central Rift Valley lakes,East Africa

Significant changes have been observed in the hydrology of Central Rift Valley (CRV) lakes in Ethiopia, East Africa as a result of both natural processes and human activities during the past three decades. This study applied an integrated approach (remote sensing, hydrologic modelling, and statistical analysis) to understand the relative effects of natural processes and human activities over a sparsely gauged CRV basin. Lake storage estimates were calculated from a hydrologic model constructed without inputs from human impacts such as water abstraction and compared with satellite‐based (observed) lake storage measurements to characterize the magnitude of human‐induced impacts. A non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test was used to detect the presence of climatic trends (e.g. a decreasing or increasing trends in precipitation), while the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) analysis was used to assess the long‐term, inter‐annual climate variability within the basin. Results indicate human activities (e.g. abstraction) significantly contributed to the changes in the hydrology of the lakes, while no statistically significant climatic trend was seen in the basin, however inter‐annual natural climate variability, extreme dryness, and prolonged drought has negatively affected the lakes. The relative contributions of natural and human‐induced impacts on the lakes were quantified and evaluated by comparing hydrographs of the CRV lakes. Lake Abiyata has lost ~6.5 m in total lake height between 1985 and 2006, 70% (~4.5 m) of the loss has been attributed to human‐induced causes, whereas the remaining 30% is related to natural climate variability. The relative impact analysis utilized in this study could potentially be used to better plan and create effective water‐management practices in the basin and demonstrates the utility of this integrated methodology for similar studies assessing the relative natural and human‐induced impacts on lakes in data sparse areas. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation of site-scale water fluxes in desert and natural oasis ecosystems of the arid region in Northwest China

The study of water fluxes is important to better understand hydrological cycles in arid regions. Data-driven machine learning models have been recently applied to water flux simulation. Previous studies have built site-scale simulation models of water fluxes for individual sites separately, requiring a large amount of data from each site and significant computation time. For arid areas, there is no consensus as to the optimal model and variable selection method to simulate water fluxes. Using data from seven flux observation sites in the arid region of Northwest China, this study compared the performance of random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), back propagation neural network (BPNN), and multiple linear regression (MLR) models in simulating water fluxes. Additionally, the study investigated inter-annual and seasonal variation in water fluxes and the dominant drivers of this variation at different sites. A universal simulation model for water flux was built using the RF approach and key variables as determined by MLR, incorporating data from all sites. Model performance of the SVM algorithm (R² = 0.25–0.90) was slightly worse than that of the RF algorithm (R² = 0.41–0.91); the BPNN algorithm performed poorly in most cases (R² = 0.15–0.88). Similarly, the MLR results were limited and unreliable (R² = 0.00–0.66). Using the universal RF model, annual water fluxes were found to be much higher than the precipitation received at each site, and natural oases showed higher fluxes than desert ecosystems. Water fluxes were highest during the growing season (May–September) and lowest during the non-growing season (October–April). Furthermore, the dominant drivers of water flux variation were various among different sites, but the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil moisture and soil temperature were important at most sites. This study provides useful insights for simulating water fluxes in desert and oasis ecosystems, understanding patterns of variation and the underlying mechanisms. Besides, these results can make a contribution as the decision-making basis to the water management in desert and oasis ecosystems.     

齐齐哈尔市地理国情分析与表达

以齐齐哈尔市为例,利用地理国情普查数据与统计年鉴数据,构建自然地表指数、地理区位指数、生态覆被指数,对齐齐哈尔市各县、区的地理国情进行综合分析和地图表达。结果表明,齐齐哈尔市的总体条件较好,但区域差异较大,自然地表条件与地理区位条件均以中部的齐齐哈尔市辖区为优,而生态覆被条件则以北部和西部地区为优。     

地理国情普查外业调查与核查探讨

地理国情普查主要是查清我国地形地貌、地表覆盖等自然和人文地理要素的现状和空间分布情况,建立普查成果数据库,为开展常态化的国情监测奠定基础。正确理解吉林省地理国情普查技术设计和作业指导书,以及国情普查的内容与指标,进行外业核查与遥感影像解译样本采集工作,为最终形成地理国情要素数据、地表覆盖分类数据和遥感影像解译样本数据库奠定基础。     

塔里木盆地西南凹陷古新统巨厚海相石膏岩沉积特征及环境意义

塔里木盆地(简称塔,下同)西南凹陷古新世阿尔塔什组发育巨厚层海相石膏岩,夹薄层泥岩、粉砂岩及灰岩,是塔西南凹陷断续海侵环境下多期次蒸发沉积的产物。野外调查显示,该层海相石膏岩出现于皮拉里、阿尔塔什、麻扎塔格及大山口地区的阿尔塔什组露头剖面。石膏岩在凹陷内分布广泛,在西昆仑山前、南天山山前及麦盖提斜坡带均有发育且沉积厚度比较稳定。石膏岩中主要盐类矿物为石膏、硬石膏。扫描电镜分析发现,石膏岩中尚含石盐、钙芒硝及含钾镁的硫酸盐等;石膏岩样品中石盐、石膏、硬石膏等多呈细晶或自形微晶,推测阿尔塔什组沉积期,古盐湖曾出现过富钾卤水;通过对皮拉里剖面石膏岩样品进行地球化学分析,揭示该地区古新世古盐湖演化过程中出现2个相对富钾峰值。在古盐湖演化过程中,由于多期次特提斯海水的侵入,凹陷内部阿尔塔时期发育了碎屑岩—巨厚层石膏岩—碎屑岩的沉积韵律,古盐湖卤水表现为淡—咸—淡的变化规律。伴随着阿尔塔时期4次大规模的海侵,石膏岩沉积从西昆仑山前扩展到麦盖提斜坡地带,海侵范围也逐渐扩大。在阿尔塔什组顶部发育中厚层灰岩,显示在阿尔塔什组沉积晚期,塔西南凹陷沉积环境从●湖相逐渐向浅海相环境演变。     

准噶尔盆地油气源、油气分布与油气系统

准噶尔盆地是中国西部典型的多旋回叠合盆地,发育有石炭系、二叠系、三叠系、侏罗系、白垩系和古近系6套烃源岩,同时存在6大类原油和3大类天然气,广泛分布于盆地不同地区。西北缘原油总体相似,碳同位素组成轻(δ~(13)C-29‰),胡萝卜烷、类异戊二烯烷烃、三环萜烷、伽马蜡烷丰富,甾烷以C_(28)、C_(29)为主,基本没有重排甾烷,为第二类原油,来源于二叠系湖相烃源岩。腹部绝大多数原油与西北缘原油相似,但胡萝卜烷、类异戊二烯烷烃、伽马蜡烷等有差异,来源于不同凹陷的二叠系湖相烃源岩;少量原油碳同位素组成重(δ~(13)C-28‰~-26‰),Pr/Ph大于2.5,三环萜烷以C_(19)、C_(20)为主,藿烷丰富而伽马蜡烷极低,以C_(29)规则甾烷及重排甾烷为主,为第四类原油,来源于侏罗系煤系烃源岩。东部存在5种类型原油,第一类原油碳同位素组成特别重(δ~(13)C-26‰),来源于石炭系烃源岩;第二类原油与腹部地区绝大多数原油十分相似,来源于二叠系湖相烃源岩;第三类原油碳同位索组成轻,重排甾烷、Ts、C_(29)Ts及C_(30)重排藿烷异常丰富,来源于中上三叠统湖相烃源岩;第四类原油源于侏罗系煤系烃源岩;混合类原油为二叠系、三叠系、侏罗系原油的混合,各自贡献平均分别为20%、15%和65%。南缘存在4类典型原油,为第二、第四、第五和第六类原油,其中第二、第四类分别源于二叠系和侏罗系;第五类原油碳同位素组成轻(δ~(13)C-29‰)、Pr/Ph1.0、伽马蜡烷丰富且有两个异构体、Ts、C_(29)Ts、C_(30)重排藿烷、C_(27)~C_(29)异胆甾烷及C_(30)甲基甾烷丰富,来源于白垩系湖相烃源岩;第六类原油主要为中低成熟原油,碳同位素组成δ~(13)C~28‰~-26‰,C_(27)、C_(28)、C_(29)甾烷呈"V"型分布,甲藻甾烷异常丰富,来源于古近系湖相烃源岩。准噶尔盆地天然气有油型气、混合气和煤型气,前两类主要来源于二叠系湖相烃源岩和石炭系海相烃源岩,煤型气主要来源于石炭系和侏罗系煤系烃源岩。不同类型油气分布与不同时代烃源灶具有良好对应关系:石炭系油气主要分布于陆东-五彩湾;二叠系油气主要分布于西北缘、腹部与东部;三叠系原油仅分布于东部;侏罗系原油主要分布于东部与南部;白垩系原油仅分布于南缘中部;古近系原油仅分布于南缘西部。按照盆地构造特征及不同时代烃源灶与油气关系,将准噶尔盆地划分为西部、中部、东部、南部及乌伦古5个油气系统及15个子油气系统。     

Iodine budget in surface waters from Atacama: Natural and anthropogenic iodine sources revealed by halogen geochemistry and iodine-129 isotopes

Iodine enrichment in the Atacama Desert of northern Chile is widespread and varies significantly between reservoirs, including nitrate-rich “caliche” soils, supergene Cu deposits and marine sedimentary rocks. Recent studies have suggested that groundwater has played a key role in the remobilization, transport and deposition of iodine in Atacama over scales of millions-of-years. However, and considering that natural waters are also anomalously enriched in iodine in the region, the relative source contributions of iodine in the waters and its extent of mixing remain unconstrained. In this study we provide new halogen data and isotopic ratios of iodine (¹²⁹I/I) in shallow seawater, rivers, salt lakes, cold and thermal spring water, rainwater and groundwater that help to constrain the relative influence of meteoric, marine and crustal sources in the Atacama waters. Iodine concentrations in surface and ground waters range between 0.35 μM and 26 μM in the Tarapacá region and between 0.25 μM and 48 μM in the Antofagasta region, and show strong enrichment when compared with seawater concentrations (I = ∼0.4 μM). In contrast, no bromine enrichment is detected (1.3–45.7 μM for Tarapacá and 1.7–87.4 μM for Antofagasta) relative to seawater (Br = ∼600 μM). These data, coupled to the high I/Cl and low Br/Cl ratios are indicative of an organic-rich sedimentary source (related with an “initial” fluid) that interacted with meteoric water to produce a mixed fluid, and preclude an exclusively seawater origin for iodine in Atacama natural waters. Iodine isotopic ratios (¹²⁹I/I) are consistent with halogen chemistry and confirm that most of the iodine present in natural waters derives from a deep initial fluid source (i.e., groundwater which has interacted with Jurassic marine basement), with variable influence of at least one atmospheric or meteoric source. Samples with the lowest isotopic ratios (¹²⁹I/I from ∼215 to ∼1000 × 10⁻¹⁵) strongly suggest mixing between the groundwater and iodine storage in organic-rich rocks (with variable influence of volcanic fluids) and pre-anthropogenic meteoric water, while samples with higher values (∼2000–93,700 × 10⁻¹⁵) indicate the input of anthropogenic meteoric fluid. Taking into account the geological, hydrologic and climatic features of the Atacama region, we propose that the mean contribution of anthropogenic ¹²⁹I is associated with ¹²⁹I releases during nuclear weapon tests carried out in the central Pacific Ocean until the mid 1990's (¹²⁹I/I = ∼12,000 × 10⁻¹⁵). This source reflects rapid redistribution of this radioisotope on a global scale. Our results support the notion of a long-lived continental iodine cycle in the hyperarid margin of western South America, which is driven by local hydrological and climate conditions, and confirm that groundwater was a key agent for iodine remobilization and formation of the extensive iodine-rich soils of Atacama.     

松花江白山河段冰情数值计算及分析

根据水动力学、河流动力学、热力学、河冰水力学及固体力学等原理,针对松花江上游白山河段具体特征,建立了河冰数学模型,并应用有限差分计算方法,对白山河段冬季冰情演变进行了精确模拟。应用该河段1958-1973年共15年完整的地形、气象、水文、热力、冰情等原型观测资料,分别进行了模型参数率定及冰情数值模拟。研究结果表明:白山河段的封冻首先开始于白山坝址下游4 km的大崴子河段,然后封冻边缘逐渐上溯,最终到达松14断面;计算的白山河段冰花堆积体外形与河床纵剖面呈相似趋势;各种水力及冰情要素的数值计算结果和实测值吻合较好,所建立的数值模型能较好地模拟该河道的冰情。研究结果对东北地区河流冬季冰情研究及冰害防治具有一定的借鉴意义。