Progress and Prospect of Statistics and Assessment of Large-scale Natural Disaster Damage and Losses

In June 2014, the "Statistics System for the Damage and Loss of Large-scale Natural Disasters" (SSDLLND) was issued by the Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Office of National Disaster Reduction Committee, which marked that the statistics and assessment of China's catastrophic natural disaster damage and losses formally entered a new stage of institutionalization. On the basis of analyzing the five major international disaster damage and loss assessment systems, including HAZUS-MH, ECLAC, DaLA, EMA-DLA and PDNA, the differences between the “SSDLLND” of China and five major international systems were compared from the statistics and assessment contents and indicators. Combined with the statistics and assessment practices of China’s large-scale disaster damage and losses and the characteristics of international systems in recent years, the future development of the SSDLLND were proposed in three aspects: Enriching and improving the framework of damage and loss statistics content, stepwise improvement of disaster impact assessment methods (such as the ecological capital loss assessment, tourism industry loss assessment due to the disasters, etc.), and improving indicators and parameters of loss statistics. The study has an important practical significance for improving the statistics and assessment system of the damage and loss of major natural disasters and better serving the post-disaster recovery and reconstruction decision-making.     

SAGD技术应用于陆域冻土天然气水合物开采中的理论研究

天然气水合物被誉为最有研究价值和开采价值的清洁能源,已经成为当今世界能源研究的热点。但到目前为止还未形成成熟稳定的天然气水合物开采技术体系,仍处于研究和试采阶段。陆域冻土天然气水合物开采与海域天然气水合物开采相比相对比较容易,在钻进过程中能够形成较稳定的孔壁。天然气水合物开采的主要方法有热激法、降压法、置换法和化学抑制剂法。SAGD（Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage）技术也叫蒸汽辅助重力驱油技术,在重油、油砂开采中得到了迅速发展,取得了非常有效的成果,被认为是目前重油开采最有效的方法。对SAGD技术应用到陆域冻土天然气水合物开采中进行理论分析研究,经过分析发现将SAGD技术应用到天然气水合物开采中是可行的,但确定两口水平井之间的距离是关键,且在应用时要将上部井变为生产井,下部井变为注汽井。     

A relationship between solar activity and frequency of natural disasters in China

The relationship between the length of the solar cycle, a good indicator of long-term change in solar activity, and natural disasters (drought, flood, and strong earthquakes) in China during the last 108 years is analyzed. The results suggest that the length of solar cycle may be a useful indicator for drought/flood and strong earthquakes. When the solar activity strengthens, we see the length of the solar cycle shorten and more floods occur in South China and frequent strong earthquakes happen in the Tibetan Plateau,but the droughts in East China as well as the strong earthquakes in Taiwan and at the western boundary of China are very few. The opposite frequencies occur when the solar activity weakens. The current study indicates that the solar activity may play an important role in the climate extremes and behavior in the lithosphere.     

重特大自然灾害综合评估

基于作者近年对多次重特大自然灾害综合评估的实践,就重特大自然灾害的影响范围、破坏程度、直接经济损失的综合评估予以阐述。重特大自然灾害快速评估结果是制定应急救援、转移安置方案和恢复重建规划的科学依据。综合现场调查、遥感监测、模型评估和地方上报数据于一体,是提高重特大自然灾害评估结果准确度和精度的关键。制定科学合理的重特大自然灾害评估指标体系,仍然需要在大量综合评估的实践中完善。     

南海海上搜救困难性评价

为保障船舶海上航行安全,结合GIS与模糊层次分析法,从海上搜救的自然环境和人文搜救力量2个方面选取9个因子建立海上搜救困难性评价模型,对南海海上搜救困难性进行评价。结果表明：1）自然环境影响下,南海海域搜救困难性具有“V”字形分布的特点,由东北向西南难度等级逐渐降低。2）在人文搜救力量影响下,南海海域的搜救困难性整体呈“东北－西南条带式”,难度最大的区域主要位于南海东北―西南的连线上,呈不规则环状向连线两侧递减。3）综合两方面因素,南海部分岛屿周围搜救难度偏高,主要受台风等恶劣天气及远离搜救基地的影响,而远海海域搜救难度在整体上为“东北－西南递减式”空间分布格局,最高和较高的区域由研究区东北延伸至西南,然后向西北、东南两侧递减。总体而言,南海研究区中近21.1%的海域搜救难度≥7级,仍需加强对搜救力量的部署与建设。     

Responses of chemically active and naturally fractured shale under time‐dependent mechanical loading and ionic solution exposure

In this paper, the analytical dual‐porosity dual‐permeability poromechanics solution for saturated cylinders is extended to account for electrokinetic effects and material transverse isotropy, which simulate the responses of chemically active naturally fractured shale under time‐dependent mechanical loading and ionic solution exposure. The solution addresses the stresses, fracture pore pressure, matrix pore pressure, fluid fluxes, ion concentration evolution, and displacements due to the applied stress, pore pressure, and solute concentration difference between the sample and the circulation fluid. The presented solution will not only help validate numerical simulations but also assist in calibrating and interpreting laboratory results on dual‐porosity dual‐permeability shale. It is recommended that the analytical solutions of radial and axial displacements be used to match the corresponding laboratory‐recorded data to determine shale dual permeability and chemo‐electrical parameters including membrane coefficient, ions diffusion coefficients, and electro‐osmotic permeability.     

新近纪以来的构造运动是中国气藏形成的重要因素

新近纪以来的构造运动是全球最新的地壳形变和造山运动的发展演化阶段。由于中国地处印度陆块、西伯利亚陆块与太平洋板块所围限的三角地带。是世界上新近纪以来构造运动比较活跃的地区,以及天然气极易散失,也难以保存的特点,因此,新近纪以来构造运动特征是研究中国气藏形成和保存不可忽视的重要地质因素。总结中国天然气的成藏历程,虽然各类盆地有所不同,但都有上新世以来构造运动的影响。上新世以来的构造运动对于中国天然气的成藏及分布有一定的破坏作用,促使一些盆地天然气受到了一定程度的散失,但总体上以促进成藏、聚集作用为主：①在西部盆岭之间形成了一系列中国式的前陆型盆地,为形成大中型气田刨造了有利条件。并控制了盆地本部气藏的最终定型。②在中部的四川盆地形成了成排成带的背斜,是四川盆地气藏形成、定型的主要时期;鄂尔多斯盆地的整体快速隆升及进一步西倾,促进了从靖边至乌审旗气田群天然气的进一步聚集。③在东部,上新世末期的渤海运动为以渤中拗陷为主体的渤海海域晚期成藏刨造了有利的地质条件;在其他盆地也促进了二次生烃及次生气藏的形成;并形成了一批无机成因的二氧化碳气田。④在近海海域,既促进了有机成因气藏的形成,也促进了无机成因非烃气藏以及无机与有机成因天然气的混源,致使区内形成了比较复杂的气藏特征。总之,新近纪以来活跃的构造运动形成了中国天然气以晚期、超晚期生烃成藏、定型为主的成藏模式,是研究中国气藏形成不可忽视的重要的地质阶段。     

对基础测绘"十四五"规划的若干思考

着眼于明确机构改革后基础测绘在自然资源管理业务格局中的职责定位、工作重点,以及如何按照新《测绘法》更好地履行"为经济建设、国防建设、社会发展和生态保护服务"的法定要求,分析了"十四五"基础测绘发展的基本形势,据此提出"十四五"规划工作的基本思路和主要遵循,明确了工作重点和相关措施,相关观点已经在"十四五"基础测绘规划编制工作中得到体现。     

祁连山冻土区天然气水合物烃类气体组分 的特征和成因

祁连山冻土区天然气水合物DK-2科学钻探试验孔水合物储集层岩心气样的烃类气体组分和C同位素分析测试结果表明,祁连山冻土区天然气水合物烃类气体组分复杂,除甲烷外,还含有较高的乙烷和丙烷;δ13C1均大于-50‰,R值普遍小于100,显示出明显的热解气特征。结合钻探区的地质背景和岩性特征,初步判断气体大多来源于深部迁移上来的油型气,并有部分原地煤成气的混合。     

The Quantitative Identification of Regional Mine and Natural Earthquakes and Its Application

INTRODUCTIONThe structural mine earthquake in coal mines refers to the quake induced by excavationengineeringthatleadstorupturingor change of geological structure and weakness surfaceintheinteriorof rock mass.According to the origin,mine earthquakes can b…