Seismic vulnerability evaluation of axially loaded steel built-up laced members Ⅱ： evaluations

The test results described in Part 1 of this paper （Lee and Bruneau, 2008） on twelve steel built-up laced members （BLMs） subjected to quasi-static loading are analyzed to provide better knowledge on their seismic behavior. Strength capacity of the BLM specimens is correlated with the strength predicted by the AISC LRFD Specifications. Assessments of hysteretic properties such as ductility capacity, energy dissipation capacity, and strength degradation after buckling of the specimen are performed. The compressive strength of BLMs is found to be relatively well predicted by the AISC LRFD Specifications. BLMs with smaller kl/r were ductile but failed to reach the target ductility of 3.0 before starting to fracture, while those with larger kl/r could meet the ductility demand in most cases. The normalized energy dissipation ratio, EC/ET and the normalized compressive strength degradation, Cr″/Cr of BLMs typically decrease as normalized displacements δ/δb,exp increase, and the ratios for specimens with larger kl/r dropped more rapidly than for specimens with smaller kl/r; similar trends were observed for the monolithic braces. The BLMs with a smaller slenderness ratio, kl/r, and width-to-thickness ratio, b/t, experienced a larger number of inelastic cycles than those with larger ratios.     

全球风险和脆弱性评估方法及其尺度转换的局限性

近年来,国际上采用一系列指标,从全球的、区域的视角测度风险和脆弱性的工作不断增多.从全球尺度看,风险和脆弱性评估方法主要包括:UNDP的灾害风险指数、哥伦比亚大学的热点项目,以及哥伦比亚国家大学环境研究所开发的美洲项目;从区域尺度看,以GTZ和印度尼西亚社区合作伙伴共同开发的基于社区的风险指数最为典型.通过国际主要文献的综述,介绍了几种主要评估方法的目标、框架、测算指标和基本要求,分析了这些评估方法在应用中的局限性,指出了不同方法在空间尺度降次、升级转换过程中的不足和难点.     

中国跨境水资源的脆弱性及其影响因子

Competitive use of transboundary freshwater resources is becoming one of the key factors influencing regional peace and political relationship among states. In China, 18 major international river basins are concentrated in three regions, of which the total annual outflow at the border is 7320×10⁸ m³, occupying 26.8% of the total annual runoff of China, and the inflow at the border is only 172×10⁸ m³. In this paper, we analyzed the major drivers affecting shared water vulnerability in China, namely: (1) changes in physical conditions affecting the availability of water; (2) competing objectives between economic development and ecological conservation; (3) lack of emergency response mechanisms; (4) unsound administrative institutions; and (5) shortcomings in the development of regional cooperation based on transboundary waters. We concluded by identifying four pathways for reducing vulnerability: (1) encouraging scientific research cooperation; (2) constructing information-sharing channels; (3) establishing early-warning mechanisms; and (4) promoting further coordination and negotiation. Foundation: The National Key Project for Basic Research on Ecosystem Changes in Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region and Transboundary Eco-security of Southwest China, No.2003CB415105 Author: Feng Yan (1967–), Ph.D and Professor, specialized in coordinated management of international river basins related to international water law and water policy, natural resources sustainable uses in mountainous areas.     

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related fire impacts in rural and urban interior Alaska

This paper explores whether fundamental differences exist between urban and rural vulnerability to climate-induced changes in the fire regime of interior Alaska. We further examine how communities and fire managers have responded to these changes and what additional adaptations could be put in place. We engage a variety of social science methods, including demographic analysis, semi-structured interviews, surveys, workshops and observations of public meetings. This work is part of an interdisciplinary study of feedback and interactions between climate, vegetation, fire and human components of the Boreal forest social–ecological system of interior Alaska. We have learned that although urban and rural communities in interior Alaska face similar increased exposure to wildfire as a result of climate change, important differences exist in their sensitivity to these biophysical, climate-induced changes. In particular, reliance on wild foods, delayed suppression response, financial resources and institutional connections vary between urban and rural communities. These differences depend largely on social, economic and institutional factors, and are not necessarily related to biophysical climate impacts per se. Fire management and suppression action motivated by political, economic or other pressures can serve as unintentional or indirect adaptation to climate change. However, this indirect response alone may not sufficiently reduce vulnerability to a changing fire regime. More deliberate and strategic responses may be required, given the magnitude of the expected climate change and the likelihood of an intensification of the fire regime in interior Alaska.     

覆盖型岩溶平原区岩溶塌陷脆弱性和开发岩溶地下水安全性评价——以广西黎塘镇为例

黎塘研究区塌陷脆弱性较高,为科学地开发该区的岩溶地下水,以满足工农业生产、生活需要,本文针对黎塘镇塌陷的主控触发因素为岩溶地下水动态变化这一特点,采用现场实时监测岩溶地下水动态变化特征和室内塌陷模拟试验相结合的方法,将监测结果与当地塌陷的临界条件进行对比来确定开发岩溶地下水的安全性.结果表明,在当前开采条件下,塌陷脆弱性分区与稳定分区并非完全重合:部分高脆弱和较高脆弱区,在目前开采条件下仍处于稳定状态,部分低脆弱区则处于危险状态,并为研究区十多年来塌陷的发育、分布特征所支持印证.据此认为,在塌陷脆弱性较高的地区未必就需要绝对禁止对岩溶地下水的开发,地下水的开发应以不增加当地塌陷的频率、加剧当地岩溶塌陷的危害为前提.      

松嫩平原地下水脆弱性模糊综合评价

运用基于DRASTIC的模糊综合评价方法,对松嫩平原潜水的脆弱性进行了评价。分析了松嫩平原地下水环境脆弱性的主要影响因素,建立准确、适宜和完整的评价指标体系,确定最主要的7个水文地质参数。将研究区划分为75个评价单元,构建各单元归属于各个级别的最优相对隶属度矩阵,得出松嫩平原脆弱区和较脆弱区主要分布在王府-伏龙泉高台地、各条主要河流两岸及其较大支流河漫滩、低阶地以及中部的低平原地区;高平原地区和五大连池的玄武岩地区为难污染区和略难污染区的结论。     

地下水脆弱性概念的发展过程与评价现状及研究前景

地下水脆弱性概念的发展过程是一个由简单到复杂,由单纯考虑内因到综合考虑内外因,由分以趋同的不断丰富、完善与发展的过程。评价方法由应用图件定性描述发展到应用模型定量表达。本文指出了目前地下水脆弱性评价中存在的若干问题,并指出应用灰色系统理论、模糊数学理论、ＡＨＰ与ＧＩＳ技术进行地下水脆弱性评价将是地下水脆弱性研究的一个主要的发展方向。     

脆弱性的概念及其评价方法

脆弱性研究是全球变化及可持续性科学领域关注的热点问题和重要的分析工具, 随着脆弱性研究受到越 来越多的关注, 对脆弱性的概念和评价方法的研究日益深入。对国内外相关研究中出现的脆弱性概念进行了归纳 总结, 并深入讨论了不同学者就脆弱性概念初步达成的共识及存在的分歧, 在此基础上明确了脆弱性概念的内涵。 依据脆弱性评价的思路, 将国内外脆弱性研究中出现脆弱性评价方法分为五大类, 分析了各种评价方法的优缺点, 指出了脆弱性评价中应遵循的基本原则。最后, 结合脆弱性研究的发展趋势, 指出面向多重扰动的脆弱性评价、耦 合系统的脆弱性评价、复杂系统的不确定问题、脆弱性评价的尺度问题等是目前脆弱性评价研究中亟待开展的研 究内容。     

辽中地区矿业城市生态系统脆弱性研究

辽中地区矿业城市是中国重要的能源生产和重工业基地,研究其生态系统脆弱性有助于改善该区域环境恶化、生态系统失调的状况,为其可持续发展提供决策依据。基于矿业城市复合生态系统内涵,建立了辽中地区矿业脆弱性评价指标体系,提出生态系统协调度,并设定了其脆弱性和协调性分级标准。结果表明:2005年,辽中地区矿业城市生态系统脆弱性处于亚稳定状态,主要限制因子为资源匹配指数、环境质量指数和经济发展指数;辽中地区矿业城市生态系统间处于亚协调状态,其中本溪略低于亚协调,处于低度失调状态。鞍山的资源匹配指数处于较失调状态,抚顺、本溪的资源匹配指数处于失调状态,抚顺、本溪的经济发展指数处于较失调状态,是限制整个生态系统协调发展的主要原因。该评价模型较真实的反映了辽中地区矿业城市生态系统脆弱性、协调性状况,并且提出了制约其发展主要限制因子。     

三峡库区地质灾害易损性模糊综合评价

地质灾害是灾害危险性对承灾体易损性综合作用的结果,减灾应从减少地质灾害的发生频率和降低其易损性入手,限于目前的科学水平,人们难以改变地质灾害的发生过程,那么降低地质灾害易损性就成为减灾的重要措施,因此进行灾害易损性评价就显得尤为重要。本文以三峡库区为研究区,选取人口密度、国内生产总值密度等指标,运用模糊综合评判对其进行了定量评估。由于各指标因子在地质灾害易损性中的作用具有模糊性,因此运用模糊模型进行评价具有一定的意义。将库区地质灾害易损性程度划分为4个等级,研究结果表明,三峡库区地质灾害易损性程度总体较高。易损度较高的地区应强化减灾意识、调整人口结构以及加大防灾投入,以降低本地区的地质灾害易损性。