广东省冬季逐日最低气温的预报方法

为了能结合数值预报产品做好广东省逐日最低气温的预报,利用1998~2007年冬季(11月~次年2月)美国NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和常规气象观测资料,选取20°~27.5°N,107.5°~117.5°E区域内的海平面气压、850 hPa温度、850 hPa相对湿度、850 hPa纬向风(u)、850 hPa经向风分量(v)和500hPa位势高度等6个要素作为预报因子,以韶关、梅州、广州、阳江、汕头等5个站分别作为广东5个部分的代表站,采用能选取"最优"因子的逐步回归方法建立5个代表站的11月~次年2月逐日的最低气温预报方程,并对预报方程进行检验。结果表明:采用逐步回归预报方法建立的广东省5个代表站的逐日最低气温预报方程具有一定的预报能力,但也存在预报结果比实况偏低的不足。     

厦门港叶绿素的时空分布及其与水环境因子关系的多元分析

叶绿素(Chl)是水体初级生产的重要指标,随环境因素变化而波动,因此,周年持续的原位实时监测可以更准确地反映水体初级生产水平及受控因素.作者于2017年全年通过水质自动在线监测对厦门港海域的叶绿素及水温、溶解氧、pH、盐度等水环境因子进行了实时监测分析,并基于多元分析研究了叶绿素含量时空分布与主要水环境因子之间的相关性...     

准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷夏子街扇区三叠系百口泉组绿帘石分布特征及成因*

准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷夏子街扇区三叠系百口泉组重矿物中绿帘石占绝对优势,且含量变化大。为了解研究区绿帘石的分布特征及其成因,利用重矿物、能谱及扫描电镜等资料,借助聚类分析和相关性分析等多元统计方法,对绿帘石的分布特征及成因进行了系统的研究。结果表明: (1)根据绿帘石含量可将研究区划分为绿帘石高值区、中值区和低值区;(2)绿帘石高值区位于扇三角洲前缘亚相,中值区和低值区主要位于扇三角洲平原亚相,且低值区比中值区更靠近物源;(3)绿帘石高值区不仅有岩浆绿帘石,自生绿帘石也普遍发育,因此绿帘石含量高;中值区绿帘石主要为岩浆绿帘石;低值区地层遭受了抬升剥蚀,溶蚀淋滤作用对搬运沉积的绿帘石破坏强烈,故显示低值。     

北京东郊722土壤垂向剖面重金属污染的磁学响应及其统计意义

对北京城东附近某苗圃内典型的土壤污染剖面进行了环境磁学和地球化学分析,发现某些重金属(Pb、Zn、Sr、Ba、Cu)和磁性参数呈现相同的垂向变化趋势,都在37cm以上显示高值区,磁化率均值达到192.02×10-8m3/kg,如Pb含量达到67.62mg/kg,而在37cm以下,明显属低值区,磁化率均值只有18.38×10-8m3/kg,Pb含量也只有23.43mg/kg.借助于指标聚类分析和主成分分析方法,揭示出各种指标之间的内在联系,表明磁参数与Pb、Zn、Sr、Ba、Cu等元素显著相关,彼此的相关系数都达到0.90以上,属于同一类别的隶属度在80%以上,说明磁指标可以作为这些重金属污染的一种代用指标.利用模糊C均值聚类分析分辨出了土壤上部污染物堆积层和下部未污染土壤背景2种不同的特征段.     

河流相储层综合预测方法探索

本文以储层横向预测的研究内容为线索，从储层追踪，储层特征参数的提取与结构重建等方面入手，针对河流相储层薄，变化快且泥质干扰严重等特点。在立足于综合研究的基础上，特别注重波阻抗技术，地质统计学，多元统计等在河流相储层预测中的作用。目前，利用波阻抗剖面，采用钻井标定色标的办法。进行储层追踪是描述储层宏观特性的有利手段。虽测井信息与地震信息就其采样的储集空间来说处于两个极端，但应用统计学方法，如多元统计，地质统计学等。可以把这两种处于两个极端的信息综合起来。其具体实现是依据岩心，测井，参照井间地震建立，储层变化模型。并借助于这一模型用合适的统计方法将这些不同分辨尺度的信息有机地融合在一起。     

安徽省地质灾害气象风险预警系统方法研究

地质灾害气象风险预警是地质灾害防范的关键环节,对增强灾害防御能力,变被动救灾为主动防灾避灾具有重要意义。本研究采用确定性系数法和基于CF的权重确定方法,计算了各评价单元的潜势度。通过建立多元回归预测模型,将基于潜势度、预报雨量、有效雨量的气象风险预警系统方法应用于安徽省地质灾害气象风险预警工作中,并建立了一套完整的从数据准备、会商分析、预警制作、签批发布,到预警预报结果反馈信息收集的预警预报工作流程,取得了较好的效果。     

塔河油田混源油地球化学及多元数理统计学对比研究

       混源油的定量判识是当前石油地质地球化学研究的热点与难点。以塔里木盆地塔河油田奥陶系中聚集的混源油为典型研究实例,通过地质地球化学与数理统计学相结合的方法,探索了定量研究混源油的方法,取得良好效果。原油地球化学研究结果表明,塔河油田原油普遍混源,并表现出多期充注特征,早期充注原油遭受了生物降解,因此目前原油中的轻烃、链状烃、规则甾烷等生物标志物主要反映的是后期充注原油的特征,不能很好地指示早期充注原油。据此,选择受生物降解影响相对较小的三环萜烷和藿烷定量数据,采用多元数理统计学交替最小二乘算法进行了原油成因研究,综合分析后认为现今混源油中可划分出4个端元,其中端元1和2可能主要代表了中上奥陶统烃源岩的贡献,而端元3和4则可能主要代表了寒武系烃源岩的贡献。塔河主体区以寒武系原油聚集为主,而外围地区则以中上奥陶统原油聚集为主,并且在整个塔河油田,总体上以寒武系原油的贡献比例相对最高。这一综合对比研究表明,多元数理统计学方法在混源油的比例计算、端元分析等方面具有重要作用,是对传统地球地球化方法研究的有效补充,值得推广应用,此外,研究认识还为区域油气勘探提供了新的参考信息。     

Identifying sources and hazardous risks of heavy metals in topsoils of rapidly urbanizing East China

With rapid economic and social development, soil contamination arising from heavy metals has become a serious problem in many parts of China. We collected a total of 445 samples (0–20 cm) at the nodes of a 2 km×2 km grid in surface soils of Rizhao city, and analyzed sources and risk pattern of 10 heavy metals (As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn). The combination of Multivariate statistics analysis and Geostatistical methods was applied to identify the sources and hazardous risk of heavy metals in soils. The result indicated that Cr, Ni, Co, Mn, Cu, and As were mainly controlled by parent materials and came from natural sources. Cd and Hg originated from anthropogenic sources. Pb and Zn, belonging to different groups in multivariate analysis, were associated with joint effect of parent materials and human inputs. Ordinary Kriging and Indicator Kriging suggested that single element and elements association from the same principal components had similar spatial distribution. Through comprehensive assessment on all elements, we also found the high risk areas were located in the populated urban areas and western study area, which could be attributed to the higher geological background in the western part and strong human interference in the eastern part.     

A statistical approach for determining the environment impact of surface sediments from the Dongting Lake area,central China

The Dongting Lake, the second biggest freshwater lake in China, consists of three wetlands of national importance, namely the East Dongting Lake, the South Dongting Lake, and the West Dongting Lake. Surface sedi-ments were sampled from 57 locations across the lake. Nutrient concentrations [total organic carbon (TOC), total N (TN) and total P (TP)] and 16 element concentrations (Al, As, B, Ca, Cd, Cr, Cu, K, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Si, Ti and Zn) in the sediments were measured to investigate the impact of industrialization along the lake's coastline and sev-eral tributaries on the profiles of nutrients and heavy metals in the lake's surface sediments. R-mode cluster analysis (CA) was used to integrate geochemical data. The result showed that euthophication of the Dongting Lake resulted mainly from TN and TOC. The main polluting trace metals are Hg, As, Cd, Zn, Pb and Mn, which are largely ad-sorbed on clay minerals or Fe/Mn oxides, or deposited as carbonates. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed the source of micropollutants. The worst affected district by heavy metals is the East Dongting Lake, the pollution sources may originate mainly from the Xiangjiang drainage area. The results demonstrated that multivariate methods are the potentially great tools for the interpretation of the environmental data on lake sediments.