基于多元自回归样条的液化侧移灾害评估模型

为了将液化侧移计算方法本土化,本文基于Youd等人收集的液化侧移数据库,采用擅长处理复杂参数维度问题的多元自适应样条回归法（MARS）建立液化侧移计算模型。经验证,该方法建立的模型精度和可靠性都可以通过检验。本文主要内容包括：（1）在本土化过程中,本文选取峰值加速度PGA作为地震动参数,替代现有模型中的M和R,计算结果并未影响液化侧移计算精度;（2）在MARS方法进行建模过程中,对临空和缓坡两种情况的影响因素进行重要性程度计算和筛选;（3）建立两种情况下的液化侧移计算模型,并用F检验法和t检验以及新西兰2010—2011年系列地震中液化侧移数据进行检验,证明本文方法的合理性和可靠性。本文的结果能满足我国相关规范、工程师以及岩土地震工程防灾减灾等方面的需求,还可为地震液化侧移灾害小区划提供理论基础。     

黄海中南部近岸海域春季鱼类浮游生物群落空间格局研究

根据2015年春季在黄海中南部近岸海域进行的鱼类浮游生物大型浮游生物网水平拖网数据,采用生态多样性指数和多元统计分析等方法,研究了该海域鱼类浮游生物的种类组成和群落空间格局及其与环境因子的关系。结果表明,本次调查共采集到鱼类浮游生物35种,其中鱼卵21种,仔稚鱼23种。鱼类浮游生物隶属于8目18科34属,优势种为鳀（Engraulis japonicus）、鲬（Platycephalus indicus）、鱼衔属（Callionymus spp.）和小黄鱼（Pseudosciaena polyactis）。其中,鳀和鱼衔属主要分布于海州湾渔场海域,鲬主要分布于吕泗渔场海域,小黄鱼多分布于吕泗渔场北部海域。生态类型包括半咸水型、沿岸型和近海型种类。聚类分析表明,鱼类浮游生物群落可划分为以鱼衔属、鳀为优势种的站位组A（主要分布于海州湾海域）、以小黄鱼、黄鲫（Setipinna taty）等为优势种的站位组B（主要位于江苏沿岸海域）和以鲬为优势种的站位组C（主要位于江苏沿岸-近海海域）,以站位组B的群落物种多样性指数和均匀度指数最高。各站位组的鱼类浮游生物的生态类型和适温类型组成不同,这与其所处的海域生境有关。典范对应分析（CCA）表明,影响春季黄海中南部鱼类浮游生物群落空间结构的主要环境因子为水深和表层温度。同时也受洋流、底质类型等多种因素的综合影响。研究结果初步揭示了黄海中南部近岸海域鱼类浮游生物群落的空间格局,可为今后科学制定该海域水产种质资源保护区、资源量化管理等资源养护管理措施提供科学依据与技术支撑。     

Statistical models for shear strength of RC beam‐column joints using machine‐learning techniques

This paper proposes a new set of probabilistic joint shear strength models using the conventional multiple linear regression method, and advanced machine‐learning methods of multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and symbolic regression (SR). In order to achieve high‐fidelity regression models with reduced model errors and bias, this study constructs extensive experimental databases for reinforced and unreinforced concrete joints by collecting existing beam‐column joint subassemblage tests from multiple sources. Various influential parameters that affect joint shear strength such as material properties, design parameters, and joint configuration are investigated through tests of statistical significance. After performing a set of regression analyses, the comparison of simulation results indicates that MARS approach is the best estimation method. Moreover, the accuracy of analytical predictions of the derived MARS model is compared with that of existing joint shear strength relationships. The comparison results show that the proposed model is more accurate compared to existing relationships. This joint shear strength prediction model can be readily implemented into joint response models for evaluation of earthquake performance and inelastic responses of building frames. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Empirical prediction of coseismic landslide dam formation

In this study we develop an empirical method to estimate the volume threshold for predicting coseismic landslide dam formation using landscape parameters obtained from digital elevation models (DEMs). We hypothesize that the potential runout and volume of landslides, together with river features, determine the likelihood of the formation of a landslide dam. To develop this method, a database was created by randomly selecting 140 damming and 200 non‐damming landslides from 501 landslide dams and > 60 000 landslides induced by the M_w 7.9 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. We used this database to parameterize empirical runout models by stepwise multivariate regression. We find that factors controlling landslide runout are landslide initiation volume, landslide type, internal relief (H) and the H/L ratio (between H and landslide horizontal distance to river, L). In order to obtain a first volume threshold for a landslide to reach a river, the runout regression equations were converted into inverse volume equations by taking the runout to be the distance to river. A second volume threshold above which a landslide is predicted to block a river was determined by the correlation between river width and landslide volume of the known damming landslides. The larger of these two thresholds was taken as the final damming threshold. This method was applied to several landslide types over a fine geographic grid of assumed initiation points in a selected catchment. The overall prediction accuracy was 97.4% and 86.0% for non‐damming and damming landslides, respectively. The model was further tested by predicting the damming landslides over the whole region, with promising results. We conclude that our method is robust and reliable for the Wenchuan event. In combination with pre‐event landslide susceptibility and frequency–size assessments, it can be used to predict likely damming locations of future coseismic landslides, thereby helping to plan emergency response. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geochemical types of pacific polymetallic nodules: An application of multivariate analysis

A total of 843 samples of Pacific Ocean polymetallic nodules (PNs) from five survey areas have been studied (metals analyzed: Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Co, Zn, Pb). The statistical analysis included the following techniques: factor R analysis, quick cluster Q analysis into 50 preclasses, various hierarchical cluster Q analyses (HCAs) using the preclasses (application of different HCAs to an identical set of data and of an identical HCA to two different subsets of the data), comparison of the HCA. The PNs of the survey areas can be grouped into five geochemical types (I‐V). The genesis of the PNs was interpreted as early diagenetic, hydrogenetic, and mixed (early diagenetic/hydrogenetic and hydrogenetic/hydrothermal. In addition, some further conclusions regarding the applicability of various HCA techniques depending on the structure of the data set have been drawn.     

The application of multivariate statistical methods to phytoplankton counts from the Hauraki Gulf,New Zealand

The phytoplankton population from a station in the Jellicoe Channel area of the Hauraki Gulf, New Zealand, was fairly constant, in terms of total population and species composition, throughout the year. Correspondence analysis enabled us to identify 3 groups of species. The largest of these comprised the core species which were present most of the time and included some, such as the coccolithophores, with a strongly seasonal occurrence. The species in the second group were mainly large centric diatoms and appeared for short periods during the winter months, apparently brought in by incursions of oceanic water. The third group of species occurred between April 1970 and October 1971 when there was a period of unusually warm weather: the winds were lighter and more often blowing onshore and this perhaps led to warmer, less nutrient‐rich surface waters being brought into the Gulf.     

宁夏吴忠市金积水源地地下水水质影响因素的多元统计分析

根据吴忠市金积水源地地下水饮用水用途选择11项水化学指标,采集32个地下水水样进行测试分析及处理。在分析金积水源地地下水流场及水化学特征基础上,综合利用因子分析法和系统聚类分析方法对水质影响因素进行评价,2种方法评价结果基本一致。结果表明,该区地下水水质影响因素主要有：以Cl^-、SO^2-₄、Mg²⁺、NO^-₃、Ca²⁺质量浓度为代表变量的溶滤作用,该作用表现为西强东弱,综合主成分贡献率48.40%;以EC、总硬度及TDS、Na⁺、HCO^-质量浓度为代表变量的蒸发浓缩作用,沿补给区和排泄区作用较强,综合主成分贡献率39.66%;以NH₄-N质量浓度为主要载荷变量的人类活动影响因素,因子得分较高区域与企业分布及排污范围分布一致,综合主成分贡献率11.94%。水质影响因素分布总体表现为黄河沿岸蒸发浓缩作用相对较强;汉渠以北主要受溶滤作用及地下水蒸发浓缩共同影响;南干沟及南干沟入黄河口附近氨氮污染较明显。     

上海市商务办公楼租金差异及其影响因素

上海房地产市场在国家房产新政下出现了较大的转折,商务办公楼市场升温。本文从总体上分析了上海部分区域商务办公楼的平均租金差异,并选择商务办公楼比较集中的南京路、延安路和淮海路三条线路作为典型调查区段,共采集24个样本区域、66幢甲级商务办公楼、492个具体样本资料,运用多元线性回归分析方法,揭示了上海市商务办公楼租金差异与地理区位、服务设施、交通条件、平均层数、平均停车位及绿化景观6个影响因子的相互作用关系。回归分析结果表明:服务设施和停车位是影响上海市商务办公楼租金差异的主要因子;其次为绿化景观、地理区位和交通条件;而平均层数的影响甚微。最后针对上海商务办公楼多中心化趋势,就有关问题进行了分析和讨论。     

Recognition of geochemical footprints of mineral systems in the regolith at regional to continental scales

Understanding the character of Australia's extensive regolith cover is crucial to the continuing success of mineral exploration. We hypothesise that the regolith contains geochemical fingerprints of processes related to the development and preservation of mineral systems at a range of scales. We test this hypothesis by analysing the composition of surface sediments within greenfield regional-scale (southern Thomson Orogen) and continental-scale (Australia) study areas. In the southern Thomson Orogen area, the first principal component (PC1) derived in our study [Ca, Sr, Cu, Mg, Au and Mo at one end; rare earth elements (REEs) and Th at the other] is very similar to the empirical vector used by a local company (enrichment in Sr, Ca and Au concomitant with depletion in REEs) to successfully site exploration drill holes for Cu–Au mineralisation. Mapping of the spatial distribution of PC1 in the region reveals several areas of elevated values and possible mineralisation potential. One of the strongest targets in the PC1 map is located between Brewarrina and Bourke in northern New South Wales. Here, exploration drilling has intersected porphyry Cu–Au mineralisation with up to 1 wt% Cu, 0.1 g/t Au, and 717 ppm Zn. The analysis of a comparable geochemical dataset at the continental scale yields a compositionally similar PC1 (Ca, Sr, Mg, Cu, Au and Mo at one end; REEs and Th at the other) to that of the regional study. Mapping PC1 at the continental scale shows patterns that (1) are spatially compatible with the regional study and (2) reveal several geological regions of elevated values, possibly suggesting an enhanced potential for porphyry Cu–Au mineralisation. These include well-endowed mineral provinces such as the Curnamona and Capricorn regions, but also some greenfield regions such as the Albany-Fraser/western Eucla, western Murray and Eromanga geological regions. We conclude that the geochemical composition of Australia's regolith may hold critical information pertaining to mineralisation within/beneath it.     

阿拉善高原荒漠植被组成分布特征及其环境解释:Ⅱ.C_4植物组成、分布特征与环境的关系

研究了阿拉善典型干旱荒漠植被区C4植物的组成特征、空间分布及其与环境因子的相关性。发现C4植物主要集中在藜科(Chenopodiaceae)和禾本科(Gramineae),生活型以一、二年生草本为主,占到70%以上;旱生和旱中生C4植物所占比例较大,达到48.89%,其区系成分以世界成分、亚洲中部成分和古地中海成分为主。C4植物分布特征表现出不同的规律性:在垂直地带分布上与温度呈正相关关系、与降雨呈负相关关系;在水平经度地带分布上主要与降水呈正相关关系,与温度无显著相关,尤其是在极端高温、干旱(主要是额济纳戈壁荒漠区)地区,C4植物的生存受到了限制。这一结果对于揭示阿拉善地区C4植物的水分利用效率,及其与降水资源的空间分布之间的关系提供了一定的理论解释。